FREE 02/22 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game slate offers a mix of opportunities, with two clear standout matchups from a DFS perspective. The Lakers and Nuggets face off at 8:30 PM ET in the highest-total game of the night (244.5), promising a fast-paced environment loaded with fantasy potential. Not far behind is the Rockets and Jazz matchup at 9:30 PM ET, carrying a solid 226 total that could also provide strong value depending on how rotations shake out.

With only four games, roster construction will be tight, and ownership could condense around those high-total contests. Finding the right balance between exposure to these matchups and leveraging under-the-radar plays from lower-profile games will be key.

Game Environment Analysis

BKN @ PHI (O/U: 212.5, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: BKN (30th) vs PHI (27th)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs PHI (22nd)
• Def Eff: BKN (19th) vs PHI (23rd)

LAL @ DEN (O/U: 244.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: LAL (21st) vs DEN (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAL (11th) vs DEN (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: LAL (13th) vs DEN (16th)

HOU @ UTA (O/U: 226.0, Spread: 8.5)

• Pace: HOU (18th) vs UTA (16th)
• Off Eff: HOU (18th) vs UTA (23rd)
• Def Eff: HOU (3rd) vs UTA (30th) 🎯

CHA @ POR (O/U: 224.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: CHA (22nd) vs POR (19th)
• Off Eff: CHA (28th) vs POR (26th)
• Def Eff: CHA (15th) vs POR (25th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Amen Thompson ($8,800)

Amen Thompson ($8,800) is in a great spot tonight against Utah, and his recent production makes him a strong option for both cash games and tournaments. He’s projected for 38 minutes in a game where his versatility as a PG/SF should shine. Over his last 15 games, Thompson has averaged 16.3 points, 8.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and over three combined steals/blocks per game while shooting an efficient 52.2% from the floor. That kind of all-around stat-stuffing gives him a solid floor, and with a 1.21 FPPM rate this season, he carries legitimate upside as well. The Jazz rank middle-of-the-pack defensively but struggle against versatile wings who can attack the glass and create plays—both areas where Thompson thrives.

At 21.5% projected ownership, Thompson will be moderately popular on this slate but not overwhelmingly so. His value at 5.2x salary and appearance in over 26% of optimal lineups suggest he’s worth eating some chalk in tournaments if you’re building around high-upside plays elsewhere. With a Boom% of nearly 25%, he’s one of the better mid-to-high-priced options to target tonight, especially given his consistent role and ability to contribute across multiple categories. If you’re looking for a player with both ceiling potential and a stable floor, Thompson fits the bill perfectly here at $8,800.

More PG Plays:

• LaMelo Ball ($9,600)
• Keyonte George ($6,200)
• Anfernee Simons ($6,500)

SG - Jalen Green ($7,200)

Jalen Green is shaping up as one of the most intriguing plays on tonight’s slate at $7,200. Projected for 38.7 DK points and appearing in 26.9% of optimal lineups, he offers strong value at 5.4x his salary. His recent performances suggest he’s trending upward, including a 51.8 DK point outing in 39 minutes against Minnesota, where he poured in 35 points with solid peripherals. The matchup against Utah is favorable for Green, as the Jazz rank among the league’s weaker defenses against scoring guards, and with Houston projected to keep this game competitive, his expected 35+ minutes provide plenty of opportunity to hit his ceiling.

At an ownership of 27.6%, Green will be chalky relative to the field average but justifiably so given his upside and role in Houston’s offense. His high Boom% (24.4%) and top tournament ranking make him a viable option even in GPPs despite the elevated ownership. While there’s always some risk with inefficiency (as seen in games like Feb. 13 vs Golden State), his volume-driven role—taking over 20 shots in three of his last five games—makes him hard to fade tonight, especially in a game environment where he should thrive against Utah’s vulnerable backcourt defense.

More SG Plays:

• Keyonte George ($6,200)
• Anfernee Simons ($6,500)
• Jamal Murray ($7,600)

SF - Deni Avdija ($6,100)

Deni Avdija ($6,100) is shaping up as one of the strongest plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. His 1.09 FPPM combined with a projected 32 minutes in a favorable matchup against Charlotte makes him an excellent value at 5.7x. The Hornets rank among the league’s weakest defensive teams, particularly against forwards, which should provide Avdija ample opportunity to rack up points across multiple categories. He’s already demonstrated his upside recently with a 44.5 DK-point performance against the Lakers, and his ability to contribute as a scorer, rebounder, and playmaker makes him a versatile option for both cash games and tournaments.

The main concern here is ownership, as Avdija is projected to be rostered by nearly half the field (45.8%). While this level of chalk can sometimes warrant fading in tournaments, his combination of projection (34.84 DK points), optimal lineup rate (31.18%), and boom potential (28.98%) suggests that he’s worth eating the chalk in most builds. With Portland’s rotation still volatile and other key players like Simons and Grant being inconsistent producers, Avdija has shown he can step up when given the opportunity. If you’re looking for reliable mid-tier value with legitimate upside, he’s one of the best options available tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Cameron Johnson ($5,700)
• LeBron James ($10,300)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($6,200)

PF - Cameron Johnson ($5,700)

Cameron Johnson is shaping up as one of the better mid-range value plays on tonight’s slate at $5,700. He’s projected for 31.8 DK points with a strong 5.6x value and has been consistently productive in recent games, averaging 29 minutes and over 27 DK points across his last five contests. The matchup against Philadelphia isn’t ideal on paper, but his versatility at SF/PF and ability to contribute across multiple categories keeps him viable even in tougher spots. With a solid FPPM rate of 1.06 and a 24% Boom percentage, Johnson offers both a stable floor and legitimate upside for tournaments.

The main concern here is ownership—Johnson is expected to be rostered by 31.7% of the field, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While that level of popularity might make some hesitant in GPPs, it’s hard to argue against his inclusion given his combination of price, role, and projection. He appears in 23.3% of optimal lineups for good reason and should see around 30 minutes tonight in what could be a competitive game environment. Ultimately, he’s chalk worth eating if you’re prioritizing value plays, but consider differentiating elsewhere if you’re locking him into tournament builds.

More PF Plays:

• Jabari Smith Jr. ($5,000)
• John Collins ($6,800)
• LeBron James ($10,300)

C - John Collins ($6,800)

John Collins ($6,800) is in a solid spot tonight against Houston, a team that struggles defensively and plays at one of the fastest paces in the league. Collins is projected for 35.8 DK points with an impressive value of 5.3x, making him one of the stronger mid-range options on the slate. His recent production has been steady, averaging just over 33 DK points across his last five games while playing around 31-36 minutes consistently. Houston’s interior defense ranks near the bottom of the league, and with Collins averaging 1.16 FPPM, he has a clear path to exceeding value if his shot volume stays high.

The moderate ownership (25.5%) is worth noting here because it’s not quite chalk but still significant enough to make him popular in tournaments. However, given his optimal lineup rate of 22.9%, this level of ownership feels justified—he’s simply too efficient and well-priced to ignore in this matchup. While there’s some risk with his sore back designation, Collins has shown no signs of slowing down on the court, dropping 26 real-life points just last game despite Utah’s struggles as a team. If you’re looking for a reliable mid-tier play with upside, Collins fits that mold perfectly tonight.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,200)
• Jabari Smith Jr. ($5,000)
• Alperen Sengun ($8,500)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!