FREE 02/23 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate offers plenty to break down, with two standout matchups driving the conversation. The highest total on the board belongs to the MEM at CLE game (248.0), which promises a fast pace and plenty of scoring opportunities. Right behind it is SAS at NOP (243.0), another high-octane matchup that should attract significant DFS attention. These games will likely be popular targets, so figuring out how to approach them—or leverage other spots—will be key.

The staggered schedule, starting at 6:00 PM ET and wrapping up with a 9:30 PM ET tip-off, provides some flexibility for late swaps if news breaks or ownership pivots become clear. While those two high-total games stand out, the rest of the slate has potential value in less obvious places, depending on how you want to build your lineups.

Game Environment Analysis

DET @ ATL (O/U: 239.0, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: DET (12th) vs ATL (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DET (15th) vs ATL (21st)
• Def Eff: DET (11th) vs ATL (16th)

MIA @ MIL (O/U: 221.0, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: MIA (27th) vs MIL (8th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (20th) vs MIL (12th)
• Def Eff: MIA (12th) vs MIL (10th)

WAS @ ORL (O/U: 214.5, Spread: -13.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs ORL (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs ORL (28th)
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs ORL (2nd)

PHX @ TOR (O/U: 228.0, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: PHX (23rd) vs TOR (14th)
• Off Eff: PHX (11th) vs TOR (24th)
• Def Eff: PHX (27th) 🎯 vs TOR (26th) 🎯

SAS @ NOP (O/U: 243.0, Spread: -2.0)

• Pace: SAS (13th) vs NOP (10th)
• Off Eff: SAS (14th) vs NOP (25th)
• Def Eff: SAS (19th) vs NOP (28th) 🎯

MEM @ CLE (O/U: 248.0, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs CLE (5th)
• Off Eff: MEM (6th) vs CLE (1st)
• Def Eff: MEM (7th) vs CLE (8th)

OKC @ MIN (O/U: 228.5, Spread: 8.5)

• Pace: OKC (9th) vs MIN (25th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: OKC (5th) vs MIN (13th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs MIN (6th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Cole Anthony ($5,100)

Cole Anthony ($5,100) stands out as a strong value option in tonight’s matchup against the Wizards. At 5.73x value and projected for 29.24 DK points, Anthony offers an appealing combination of efficiency (1.04 FPPM) and opportunity with a projected 28 minutes on the floor. Washington ranks near the bottom of the league defensively, giving up plenty of production to opposing guards, which aligns well with Anthony’s recent ability to stuff the stat sheet. Over his last two games, he’s averaged 39.8 DK points while contributing across multiple categories, making him more than just a scoring-dependent play. His ability to rack up rebounds, assists, and steals adds stability to his floor while maintaining upside.

The biggest question here is his ownership, which sits at 27.1%, one of the highest on the slate. While that might scare some off in tournaments, it’s hard to argue against chalk that appears in 21.88% of optimal lineups and has a Boom% north of 27%. If you’re looking for leverage elsewhere, fading Anthony is an option—but be aware you’re passing on a player who has been productive even in limited minutes this season and now faces one of the softest defensive matchups on the slate. Ultimately, at this price point and with his recent form, Anthony looks like solid chalk worth eating in most lineup constructions tonight.

More PG Plays:

• De’Aaron Fox ($8,800)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,300)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,400)

SG - De’Aaron Fox ($8,800)

De’Aaron Fox checks a lot of boxes tonight at $8,800 in a strong matchup against the Pelicans. With a 1.35 FPPM rate and a projection of 48.7 DK points, he offers solid value at 5.5x his salary while also appearing in nearly 18% of optimal lineups. The game environment is appealing, as the Pelicans are middle-of-the-pack defensively and rank just 20th in pace, which could lead to more controlled possessions for Fox to rack up assists and scoring opportunities. He’s also been incredibly consistent this month, averaging 22.6 points, nearly seven assists, and two steals per game while shooting over 50% from the floor. Given his expected 36 minutes of court time, he’s well-positioned to deliver a ceiling performance.

The main concern here is ownership—Fox is projected at 18.2%, making him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. However, this feels like justified chalk considering his role as the offensive centerpiece for San Antonio with Victor Wembanyama sidelined. His usage rate has been elevated recently, and he’s shown both floor and upside with DraftKings outputs above 45 points in three of his last four games. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Fox looks like a strong play in all formats tonight thanks to his combination of price, opportunity, and matchup.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,300)
• Trey Murphy III ($8,400)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,400)

SF - Trey Murphy III ($8,400)

Trey Murphy III is an intriguing option at $8,400 tonight in a matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio has struggled defensively all season, ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, and Murphy’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him a strong candidate to capitalize. With a solid 1.21 FPPM and projected for 35 minutes, Murphy offers both floor and ceiling potential, as evidenced by his recent performances that include multiple 40+ DK point games. His projected 42.25 DK points translate to a strong 5.03x value, making him one of the better mid-to-high-tier plays on this slate.

At 16.3% ownership, Murphy is moderately chalky but not overwhelmingly so, which feels justified given his consistency and upside in this spot. The Spurs’ defensive struggles against wings further boost his case, especially with his ability to stretch the floor (46.3% from three over his last 10 games). While he isn’t likely to go completely overlooked, his optimal lineup rate of 14.76% suggests he’s still worth prioritizing in tournaments. If you’re looking for a high-upside play that isn’t extreme chalk but still projects well in a favorable game environment, Murphy checks all the boxes tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Zion Williamson ($8,800)
• Franz Wagner ($8,800)
• RJ Barrett ($7,300)

PF - Paolo Banchero ($8,600)

Paolo Banchero ($8,600) is in a great spot tonight against the Wizards, a team that struggles defensively, especially against forwards. With a strong 1.32 FPPM and a projection of nearly 45 DK points, he offers solid value at 5.2x his salary. His ability to fill up multiple stat categories gives him a high floor, and Washington’s defensive inefficiencies make this matchup even more enticing. Despite an off shooting night in his last game, Banchero has shown his ceiling recently with performances like the 58.8 DK points he dropped on Atlanta just two games ago. He’s projected for 34 minutes tonight, which should give him plenty of opportunity to produce.

At 20.2% ownership, Banchero is one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it’s chalk that feels justified given his combination of usage, matchup, and upside. He also ranks second in tournament GPP rankings with a respectable 13.8% optimal lineup percentage and a Boom% of nearly 22%. While his ownership may limit his leverage appeal in tournaments, fading him comes with risk given his ability to hit big numbers in favorable spots like this one. If you’re looking for stability with upside at power forward tonight, Banchero is tough to ignore.

More PF Plays:

• Zion Williamson ($8,800)
• Kevin Durant ($9,200)
• Evan Mobley ($8,200)

C - Tristan Vukcevic ($4,000)

Tristan Vukcevic is shaping up as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $4,000. His projected 23.4 DK points give him a solid 5.84x value, and his 1.23 FPPM production shows he can deliver when given minutes. While his playing time has fluctuated recently, he logged 20 minutes against the Spurs earlier this month and put up an impressive 33 DK points in that game. With the Wizards in full rebuild mode, there’s a chance they continue to give him opportunities off the bench, especially with Alex Sarr sidelined. Orlando ranks middle of the pack defensively against bigs, so while it’s not a dream matchup, it’s certainly not one to avoid either.

At 30.7% projected ownership, Vukcevic will be one of the chalkiest plays on this slate, and for good reason—it’s rare to find this kind of upside at his price point. However, with just 19 minutes projected tonight, there’s some risk if he doesn’t produce efficiently in limited time. Still, his high optimal percentage (18.88%) suggests he’s worth eating the chalk in tournaments if you’re looking for salary relief to fit in higher-priced studs elsewhere. Just keep in mind that fading him could provide leverage if you believe his minutes or production might underwhelm relative to ownership expectations.

More C Plays:

• Wendell Carter Jr. ($4,800)
• Kevin Durant ($9,200)
• Orlando Robinson ($3,600)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!