FREE 02/25 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate offers plenty of intrigue, with two standout matchups likely to draw the most attention. The PHX at MEM game (8:00 PM ET) boasts a massive 245.5 total, while SAS at NOP (also 8:00 PM ET) isn’t far behind at 240.5. Both games feature high-paced environments and strong DFS potential, making them key spots to target. The rest of the slate has some slower matchups mixed in, but there’s enough balance across the board to create opportunities for differentiation.

Late swap could also play a significant role tonight, with the final game tipping off at 10:00 PM ET. Keeping an eye on news and adjusting your lineups accordingly will be critical, especially if you’re building around those high-total games in the middle of the slate.

Game Environment Analysis

BOS @ TOR (O/U: 225.0, Spread: 11.0)

• Pace: BOS (26th) vs TOR (14th)
• Off Eff: BOS (3rd) 🔥 vs TOR (24th)
• Def Eff: BOS (4th) vs TOR (26th) 🎯

CLE @ ORL (O/U: 222.5, Spread: 7.5)

• Pace: CLE (5th) vs ORL (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) vs ORL (28th)
• Def Eff: CLE (7th) vs ORL (2nd)

SAS @ NOP (O/U: 240.5, Spread: -3.0)

• Pace: SAS (13th) vs NOP (11th)
• Off Eff: SAS (15th) vs NOP (25th)
• Def Eff: SAS (18th) vs NOP (28th) 🎯

MIL @ HOU (O/U: 227.0, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: MIL (10th) vs HOU (19th)
• Off Eff: MIL (12th) vs HOU (18th)
• Def Eff: MIL (10th) vs HOU (3rd)

PHX @ MEM (O/U: 245.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: PHX (23rd) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHX (11th) vs MEM (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHX (27th) 🎯 vs MEM (8th)

CHA @ GSW (O/U: 220.0, Spread: -16.5)

• Pace: CHA (22nd) vs GSW (16th)
• Off Eff: CHA (29th) vs GSW (17th)
• Def Eff: CHA (19th) vs GSW (9th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

DAL @ LAL (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -9.0)

• Pace: DAL (17th) vs LAL (21st)
• Off Eff: DAL (8th) vs LAL (10th)
• Def Eff: DAL (14th) vs LAL (12th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Damion Baugh ($3,600)

Damion Baugh ($3,600) stands out as a strong value play on tonight’s slate. Projected for 25 minutes against the Warriors, he offers a 5.3x value return with a solid 31.1% Boom rate and appears in 24.2% of optimal lineups. While his FPPM of 0.76 isn’t eye-popping, his recent performances show he can contribute across multiple categories, particularly with his defensive upside (averaging 2.3 steals over his last three games). The Warriors’ fast-paced style creates additional opportunities for peripheral stats, which suits Baugh’s ability to rack up steals and assists. At this price point, he doesn’t need to do much to hit value, making him an appealing salary-saving option.

Ownership is sitting at a moderate 11.9%, slightly above field average but not chalky enough to avoid in tournaments. Given his low price and potential for 20+ DK points, Baugh provides flexibility for building around higher-priced stars without sacrificing upside. While there’s some risk due to volatility in his shooting (1-for-8 from the field last game), the Hornets’ emphasis on player development should keep him locked into meaningful minutes. If you’re looking for a high-value punt play in GPPs, Baugh deserves serious consideration tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Luka Doncic ($10,500)
• De’Aaron Fox ($8,700)
• Devin Booker ($9,000)

SG - Desmond Bane ($7,100)

Desmond Bane ($7,100) is shaping up as one of the strongest mid-range options on tonight’s slate. His 38.7 DK point projection and 5.45x value make him a clear target, especially given his consistent minutes (34+ in five straight games) and strong per-minute production (1.14 FPPM). While Phoenix is generally a solid defensive team, they’ve struggled to contain opposing guards at times, and Bane’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him less reliant on scoring alone. Even with a poor shooting night last game, he still managed nearly 29 DK points by adding eight assists, showing his versatility. If he finds his shot again tonight, his ceiling becomes very appealing in tournaments.

The 25% ownership is definitely high, but it’s not unwarranted given Bane’s role and value at this price point. In fact, his combination of floor and upside makes him a viable chalk play in both cash games and GPPs. He ranks second in tournament value among SGs with a 26.8% boom percentage and appears in 17.5% of optimal lineups—numbers that back up why he’s so popular on this slate. While pivoting to lower-owned options may make sense in certain builds, fading Bane entirely feels risky considering his recent form and favorable metrics heading into this matchup against Phoenix.

More SG Plays:

• De’Aaron Fox ($8,700)
• Trey Murphy III ($8,100)
• Devin Booker ($9,000)

SF - Trey Murphy III ($8,100)

Trey Murphy III is in a great spot tonight against the Spurs, who rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggle to defend wings. At $8,100, Murphy offers strong value with a 5.15x projection and a solid 41.67 DK points expected. He’s been logging heavy minutes (36+ in three straight games) and has shown consistency across multiple stat categories, contributing as a scorer, rebounder, and playmaker. His 1.16 FPPM is respectable for his price range, and with a 26.67% Boom rate and appearing in 16.68% of optimal lineups, he’s clearly projecting as one of the better plays at SG/SF tonight.

The only drawback here is ownership—Murphy’s projected 17.2% ownership makes him chalky relative to field averages, but it feels justified given his role and matchup against a weak Spurs defense. If you’re playing tournaments, you’ll need to decide whether to eat that chalk or differentiate elsewhere in your lineup. With his recent production (averaging 25+ points on strong shooting splits over his last 10 games), Murphy has both a solid floor and ceiling potential in this game environment. He’s a high-upside option worth considering even at elevated ownership levels.

More SF Plays:

• Zion Williamson ($8,500)
• LeBron James ($10,000)
• Jimmy Butler ($7,800)

PF - Kevin Durant ($8,900)

Kevin Durant ($8,900) is in a prime spot tonight against Memphis, and while his 26.2% projected ownership makes him one of the chalkier plays on the slate, it’s chalk that feels justified. Durant has been logging heavy minutes recently (38+ in four straight games), and his 1.25 FPPM production paired with a strong 5.34x value projection makes him a solid foundation piece for both cash games and tournaments. Memphis ranks middle of the pack defensively but lacks a true defensive stopper at forward, giving KD plenty of room to operate as Phoenix leans heavily on him in this matchup.

The key here is Durant’s consistency and ceiling combination. He’s hit 50+ DK points twice in his last five games, including a 55.3-point performance against this same Memphis team earlier this month. With a 31.48% Boom Rate and appearing in 19.22% of optimal lineups, he’s clearly one of the top plays on the slate despite being popular. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Durant provides both stability and upside at under $9k—especially in what should be a competitive game where Phoenix will need his scoring punch to stay ahead.

More PF Plays:

• Zion Williamson ($8,500)
• LeBron James ($10,000)
• Jimmy Butler ($7,800)

C - Alperen Sengun ($8,500)

Alperen Sengun ($8,500) is an intriguing tournament play tonight against the Bucks. While Milwaukee boasts a strong defensive presence with Brook Lopez and Giannis patrolling the paint, their pace (11th fastest in the league) creates additional opportunities for opposing bigs to rack up counting stats. Sengun has been in excellent form, averaging 19.5 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists over his last four games while maintaining a solid 1.35 FPPM. His projected 43.15 DK points offer strong value at 5.1x, and his ability to fill up the stat sheet gives him a high ceiling in GPP formats, evidenced by his 23.8% Boom rate and top tournament rank.

At just 8.5% projected ownership, Sengun offers moderate leverage compared to field averages without being overly contrarian. He’s appearing in nearly 15% of optimal lineups on this slate, which speaks to his potential to outperform expectations despite the tough matchup on paper. If you’re looking for a center pivot away from higher-owned options like Jokic or Embiid, Sengun’s combination of recent production and reasonable ownership makes him worth serious consideration in tournaments tonight.

More C Plays:

• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,700)
• PJ Washington ($7,400)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!