FREE 02/26 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game NBA slate offers plenty of opportunities to dig into some high-scoring matchups. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET, and two games stand out from a totals perspective: Sacramento at Utah (236.5) and Toronto at Indiana (232.5). Both feature fast-paced teams and weak defenses, making them prime targets for stacking in DFS. With the late game starting at 9:30 PM ET, there’s also room for late swap strategy if you want to gain an edge.

The key to this slate will be finding value outside of the obvious high-total spots while still capitalizing on those game environments where the points should pile up. Balancing exposure to SAC/UTA and TOR/IND with some sneaky upside plays elsewhere could make all the difference tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

BOS @ DET (O/U: 227.0, Spread: 5.0)

• Pace: BOS (26th) vs DET (8th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BOS (3rd) vs DET (14th)
• Def Eff: BOS (4th) vs DET (11th)

TOR @ IND (O/U: 232.5, Spread: -11.5)

• Pace: TOR (15th) vs IND (7th)
• Off Eff: TOR (24th) vs IND (7th) 🔥
• Def Eff: TOR (26th) 🎯 vs IND (20th)

PHI @ NYK (O/U: 231.0, Spread: -10.0)

• Pace: PHI (27th) vs NYK (25th)
• Off Eff: PHI (23rd) vs NYK (4th) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHI (25th) 🎯 vs NYK (23rd)

POR @ WAS (O/U: 232.0, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: POR (18th) vs WAS (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: POR (26th) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: POR (22nd) vs WAS (29th) 🎯

ATL @ MIA (O/U: 230.5, Spread: -3.0)

• Pace: ATL (2nd) vs MIA (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (19th) vs MIA (21st)
• Def Eff: ATL (15th) vs MIA (13th)

OKC @ BKN (O/U: 217.5, Spread: 17.0)

• Pace: OKC (11th) vs BKN (30th)
• Off Eff: OKC (5th) 🔥 vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs BKN (18th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

LAC @ CHI (O/U: 228.0, Spread: 9.0)

• Pace: LAC (20th) vs CHI (3rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAC (20th) vs CHI (16th)
• Def Eff: LAC (5th) vs CHI (24th)

SAC @ UTA (O/U: 236.5, Spread: 9.0)

• Pace: SAC (13th) vs UTA (14th)
• Off Eff: SAC (8th) 🔥 vs UTA (22nd)
• Def Eff: SAC (21st) vs UTA (30th) 🎯

SAS @ HOU (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: SAS (12th) vs HOU (19th)
• Off Eff: SAS (17th) vs HOU (18th)
• Def Eff: SAS (16th) vs HOU (3rd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Anfernee Simons ($6,700)

Anfernee Simons ($6,700) is in a strong spot tonight against the Wizards, a team that ranks near the bottom of the league defensively and struggles to contain opposing guards. With a 1.12 FPPM rate and a projection of 37.35 DK points, he’s offering solid value at 5.6x his salary while also carrying a 31.7% boom percentage, making him one of the more appealing mid-range plays on this slate. Simons is locked into significant usage for Portland, averaging over 33 minutes per game recently and continuing to serve as the offensive focal point alongside Jerami Grant.

The high ownership (20.3%) is worth noting, but it feels justified given his role and matchup. Simons’ ability to fill it up from beyond the arc (10+ three-point attempts in two of his last three games) gives him a ceiling that can swing tournaments if he gets hot. The Wizards’ defensive inefficiencies set up well for him to hit value or better here, especially considering he appears in nearly 18% of optimal lineups according to projections. While chalky, Simons has the right combination of price, opportunity, and game environment to be worth including in both cash lineups and GPP builds tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Trae Young ($9,400)
• James Harden ($9,800)
• Tyler Herro ($8,600)

SG - Aaron Nesmith ($3,800)

Aaron Nesmith is shaping up to be a solid value play at just $3,800 on DraftKings tonight. He’s projected for 30 minutes against Toronto, a team that ranks middle of the pack defensively but can struggle to contain wings with shooting range. Over his last three games, Nesmith has averaged 27.9 DK points while shooting efficiently from deep and contributing across multiple categories. At 0.8 FPPM, he doesn’t need to do much to hit value, and his recent minutes boost combined with his usage in Indiana’s offense makes him a strong candidate to exceed his 6.35x value projection.

The ownership is relatively high at 19.8%, but it feels justified given his price tag and role in this matchup. With a Boom% of 30% and appearing in over 24% of optimal lineups, Nesmith offers both upside and reliability in GPP contests. While he isn’t likely to carry your lineup solo, he provides the salary relief you’ll need to fit higher-priced stars without sacrificing production. If you’re okay eating some chalk for value tonight, Nesmith is an excellent option who checks all the boxes for a high-floor, high-ceiling play at this price point.

More SG Plays:

• Dyson Daniels ($6,700)
• Jalen Green ($7,500)
• Malik Monk ($7,500)

SF - Deni Avdija ($6,500)

Deni Avdija stands out as one of the stronger plays on this slate, offering solid value at $6,500 with a 5.83x projection and a 1.18 FPPM rate. He’s expected to log around 32 minutes in a favorable matchup against Washington, where his well-rounded production should shine. Over his last five games, Avdija has been stuffing the stat sheet with averages of 18.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists while shooting an efficient 47.6% from the field. With a Boom% of 33.2% and appearing in nearly one-fifth (19%) of optimal lineups, he has both a high floor and ceiling for tournaments tonight.

The main concern here is ownership—at 37.6%, Avdija will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While this level of popularity might scare some off in tournaments, it’s hard to argue against his viability given his recent form and ability to contribute across multiple categories. Washington hasn’t been great defensively against wings, which further boosts his outlook in this spot. If you’re comfortable eating chalk in cash games or single-entry contests, Avdija makes perfect sense; however, in larger-field GPPs, pivoting to lower-owned players with similar upside could provide leverage if he underwhelms relative to expectations.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
• Andrew Wiggins ($6,600)
• Josh Hart ($7,900)

PF - Kyle Anderson ($3,400)

Kyle Anderson is shaping up as a strong value play at just $3,400 tonight in a matchup against Atlanta. With a projected 23 minutes of court time and a solid 0.85 FPPM rate, he’s expected to return nearly 5.8x value on DraftKings. While his recent role has fluctuated, Anderson has proven capable of producing when given opportunities, as evidenced by his 37.5 DK point outing in Dallas earlier this month. Atlanta’s defense is middle-of-the-road against forwards, and with Miami likely leaning on their bench for support, Anderson’s versatility gives him an edge to contribute across multiple categories.

However, Anderson’s ownership projection of 21.6% is worth noting—it’s significantly higher than the field average of 4.1%. This makes him chalky for tournaments, so the question becomes whether his upside justifies eating that ownership. Given his affordable salary and ability to hit value quickly, he’s still a viable option in cash games or as a filler piece in GPPs if you’re not overly concerned about differentiation. Just temper expectations—while he has flashed upside, his floor can be low in limited minutes if his shot isn’t falling or peripherals don’t come through.

More PF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
• Josh Hart ($7,900)
• Kawhi Leonard ($7,200)

C - Alperen Sengun ($8,500)

Alperen Sengun is in a prime spot tonight against the Spurs, who rank among the league’s worst defensive teams, particularly against bigs. At $8,500, he offers strong value with a 5.5x projection and an elite 1.46 FPPM rate. Over his last five games, Sengun has averaged 45+ DK points while consistently logging heavy minutes (35+ in three of those contests). This matchup should cater to his strengths as San Antonio struggles to defend the paint and ranks near the bottom in rebounding metrics, setting up Sengun for another high-ceiling performance. With a projected 46.8 DK points and a 33.8% boom percentage, he’s one of the most appealing center options on the slate.

At 15.9% ownership, Sengun is chalky but not prohibitively so given his upside and consistent production. He’s appearing in over 15% of optimal lineups, which suggests this level of ownership is justified in both cash and tournaments. The Rockets-Spurs game doesn’t project as particularly fast-paced or high-scoring, but Sengun’s ability to fill up the stat sheet with points, rebounds, and occasional assists makes him matchup-proof here. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk at center tonight, Sengun provides both a solid floor and legitimate ceiling potential for GPPs.

More C Plays:

• Ivica Zubac ($7,400)
• Domantas Sabonis ($9,700)
• Andre Drummond ($4,000)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!