FREE 03/20 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a compact 5-game NBA slate tonight, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with two late-night matchups that should grab plenty of DFS attention. The highest total on the board is CHI at SAC (234.5) at 10:00 PM ET, followed closely by TOR at GSW (224.5) in the same time slot. Both games feature fast-paced teams and strong offensive environments, making them prime targets for stacking or finding key pieces to anchor your lineup.

With only five games, ownership could condense around those high-total matchups, so finding value or leveraging lower-owned plays from earlier games might be the edge you need. Keep an eye on how the field approaches roster construction tonight—whether they load up on the late-night hammers or spread exposure more evenly across the slate. It’s a smaller player pool, but there’s still plenty of opportunity to get creative and find an edge.

Game Environment Analysis

BKN @ IND (O/U: 222.0, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: BKN (30th) vs IND (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs IND (8th) 🔥
• Def Eff: BKN (18th) vs IND (16th)

NYK @ CHA (O/U: 222.0, Spread: 7.5)

• Pace: NYK (26th) vs CHA (21st)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) 🔥 vs CHA (29th)
• Def Eff: NYK (14th) vs CHA (24th)

TOR @ GSW (O/U: 224.5, Spread: -14.5)

• Pace: TOR (13th) vs GSW (16th)
• Off Eff: TOR (26th) vs GSW (16th)
• Def Eff: TOR (19th) vs GSW (7th)

CHI @ SAC (O/U: 234.5, Spread: -7.0)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs SAC (18th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (19th) vs SAC (9th) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHI (21st) vs SAC (22nd)

MIL @ LAL (O/U: 220.5, Spread: 7.5)

• Pace: MIL (11th) vs LAL (20th)
• Off Eff: MIL (13th) vs LAL (10th)
• Def Eff: MIL (11th) vs LAL (12th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Gabe Vincent ($4,300)

Gabe Vincent comes in as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $4,300. Projected for 33 minutes against Milwaukee, he offers a strong 6.3x value with a projection of 27.1 DK points. While his 0.82 FPPM isn’t eye-popping, the combination of playing time and price tag makes him a solid option to fit in higher-priced studs. Milwaukee’s defense is tough overall, but their guard matchups aren’t impenetrable, and Vincent’s ability to knock down threes (hitting 10-of-20 over his last four games) gives him a path to exceeding value if his shot falls.

At 16.4% ownership, Vincent is moderately chalky but not overwhelming, making him a reasonable play in both cash games and tournaments. He also appears in nearly 30% of optimal lineups, which speaks to how well he fits roster construction tonight. While his recent production has been inconsistent (ranging from 8.8 to 31 DK points), his ceiling at this salary is undeniable when he’s hitting shots and playing extended minutes. If you’re looking for cost-effective exposure to the Lakers in a tough matchup, Vincent is worth considering as a secondary piece with upside.

More PG Plays:

• Damian Lillard ($8,500)
• D’Angelo Russell ($5,800)
• Malik Monk ($7,900)

SG - Dalton Knecht ($5,600)

Dalton Knecht is shaping up as one of the better value plays on tonight’s slate at $5,600. With a strong projection of 37.15 DK points and a 6.63x value, he’s hard to ignore in this spot against Milwaukee. The Bucks are a tough defensive team overall, but their bench unit has been more vulnerable, which aligns well with Knecht’s role as a high-usage second-unit scorer for the Lakers. His 1.13 FPPM production is solid, and his ability to stretch the floor (40% from three over his last nine games) gives him upside in tournaments, especially if he sees extended minutes like he did in that 37-minute outlier game against Denver last week.

The biggest question here is whether Knecht’s 30.6% projected ownership justifies playing him in GPPs. While the chalk is significant, it feels warranted given his combination of price, opportunity, and ceiling (46.7% Boom%). He also appears in over 42% of optimal lineups, suggesting that fading him could be risky if he hits his projection or better. That said, if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup, consider limiting exposure or pairing him with lower-owned plays from this game environment to balance out the ownership leverage.

More SG Plays:

• Jordan Goodwin ($4,600)
• Malik Monk ($7,900)
• Mikal Bridges ($6,200)

SF - Jordan Goodwin ($4,600)

Jordan Goodwin ($4,600) is shaping up as one of the better value plays on this slate, offering a strong combination of minutes, opportunity, and price. Projected for 33 minutes against Milwaukee, he carries a solid 0.92 FPPM rate and is expected to deliver 30.25 DK points at an excellent 6.6x value. The Lakers are leaning on him more with their rotation thinned out, and his ability to contribute across multiple categories—like his recent four-steal game against Denver—makes him appealing in this spot. While Milwaukee isn’t a soft matchup defensively, Goodwin’s versatility gives him paths to production even if his shot isn’t falling.

At 24.4% projected ownership, Goodwin will be popular in tournaments, but the chalk looks justified given his price tag and role in the Lakers’ rotation. With a Boom% of 38.6% and appearing in over 33% of optimal lineups, there’s clear upside here despite the elevated ownership. If you’re looking for a cost-effective mid-range option to balance out your lineup while still chasing ceiling potential, Goodwin fits the bill nicely tonight.

More SF Plays:

• DeMar DeRozan ($8,200)
• Mikal Bridges ($6,200)
• Josh Hart ($8,000)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)

Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. At $11,700, he projects for 59.0 DraftKings points with an elite 1.62 FPPM and appears in over 27% of optimal lineups. The matchup against the Lakers is intriguing as well—while Anthony Davis offers defensive resistance, the Lakers rank middle of the pack against PFs and have struggled to contain high-usage players in fast-paced environments. With Giannis projected to play 36+ minutes and his ability to contribute across every stat category, he has a strong chance to hit value (5.05x) even at this elevated salary. His recent form backs this up, averaging over 57 DK points across his last five games despite some inefficiency from the field.

The main question here is ownership, as Giannis is expected to be rostered by about 20.7% of the field—a high number but not necessarily prohibitive for tournaments given his ceiling and consistency. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Giannis’ combination of floor and upside makes him a solid anchor for your builds tonight. However, in GPPs, it’s worth considering whether you can differentiate elsewhere or pivot to lower-owned studs if you believe his recent shooting struggles (just 5-for-16 last game) could limit his ceiling in this spot. Ultimately, he’s a strong play in all formats but requires strategic lineup construction to offset the ownership risk in tournaments.

More PF Plays:

• Draymond Green ($6,300)
• Markieff Morris ($3,000)
• Josh Hart ($8,000)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) is in a prime spot tonight against the Hornets, a team that struggles mightily defending big men. With a strong 1.5 FPPM and a projection of 51 DK points, Towns offers solid value at 5.26x his salary. He’s coming off some impressive performances, including a 52.5 DK point outing against the Warriors just four games ago, and he’s seeing consistent minutes in the mid-30s. Charlotte has been one of the most exploitable teams for centers all season, and with Towns serving as the Knicks’ go-to option while Jalen Brunson remains sidelined, this matchup sets up perfectly for him to thrive.

At 30.3% projected ownership, Towns will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, but it’s hard to argue against it. His combination of ceiling (26% Boom%) and consistency makes him worth eating the chalk in both cash games and tournaments. While he’s not sneaking into lineups at low ownership, his 17.3% optimal lineup rate suggests he’s still providing positive leverage relative to his price tag and role tonight. If you’re fading him in GPPs, make sure you have a strong pivot because this is one of those spots where fading could come back to bite you.

More C Plays:

• Draymond Green ($6,300)
• Markieff Morris ($3,000)
• Nikola Vucevic ($7,100)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!