FREE 03/21 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate offers plenty of opportunities to get creative with your DFS lineups. Two games stand out from a game environment perspective: PHI at SAS (234.0 total) and DET at DAL (231.0 total). Both feature high implied totals and solid pace, making them prime targets for stacking or grabbing key pieces. With the first game tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and the last starting at 9:30 PM ET, there’s also some room for late swap strategy if you’re looking to adjust as news breaks.

The mid-sized slate has a nice balance of appealing spots and tricky decisions, so roster construction could go in a lot of different directions tonight. Prioritizing exposure to those high-total games makes sense, but don’t overlook potential value in other matchups that might fly under the radar. As always, staying flexible and keeping an eye on ownership trends will be key to finding an edge.

Game Environment Analysis

ORL @ WAS (O/U: 216.0, Spread: 8.5)

• Pace: ORL (28th) vs WAS (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ORL (28th) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: ORL (3rd) vs WAS (28th) 🎯

HOU @ MIA (O/U: 212.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: HOU (19th) vs MIA (29th)
• Off Eff: HOU (19th) vs MIA (22nd)
• Def Eff: HOU (2nd) vs MIA (13th)

NOP @ MIN (O/U: 223.5, Spread: -15.0)

• Pace: NOP (15th) vs MIN (23rd)
• Off Eff: NOP (24th) vs MIN (10th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NOP (29th) 🎯 vs MIN (6th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

PHI @ SAS (O/U: 234.0, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: PHI (25th) vs SAS (12th)
• Off Eff: PHI (21st) vs SAS (14th)
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs SAS (25th) 🎯

CHA @ OKC (O/U: 219.5, Spread: -20.5)

• Pace: CHA (21st) vs OKC (10th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHA (29th) vs OKC (4th) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHA (21st) vs OKC (1st)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

DET @ DAL (O/U: 231.0, Spread: 9.5)

• Pace: DET (6th) vs DAL (14th)
• Off Eff: DET (15th) vs DAL (12th)
• Def Eff: DET (9th) vs DAL (23rd)

BOS @ UTA (O/U: 227.0, Spread: 15.0)

• Pace: BOS (27th) vs UTA (7th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BOS (3rd) 🔥 vs UTA (23rd)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs UTA (30th) 🎯
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jordan Hawkins ($3,200)

Jordan Hawkins stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $3,200. Projected for 28 minutes and 24.2 DK points (a strong 7.5x value), he offers a lot of upside for his price. His 42.3% boom percentage and appearance in 23.4% of optimal lineups highlight his potential to outperform expectations in this spot. While Hawkins has shown inconsistency in recent games, his ability to contribute across multiple categories—even in limited minutes—makes him intriguing in tournaments, especially against a Timberwolves defense that isn’t particularly imposing against guards. His FPPM rate of 0.86 is respectable for someone priced this low, and if he finds his rhythm from deep (he’s attempted six or more threes in three of his last five games), he could easily smash value.

The one concern here is ownership, as Hawkins is projected to be highly owned at 23.6%, making him chalky compared to the field average of 5.1%. That level of popularity might make him less appealing if you’re looking to differentiate your tournament lineup, but it’s not unwarranted given his role and price point. If you’re willing to eat the chalk, Hawkins provides salary relief while still offering meaningful upside in a game where the Pelicans may need his scoring punch off the bench. However, if you’d prefer leverage, fading him could be viable given his volatility—he’s posted under 15 DK points in three of his last five games. Either way, Hawkins is a key decision point on tonight’s slate.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($10,400)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,600)
• Tyler Herro ($8,300)

SG - Stephon Castle ($6,700)

Stephon Castle ($6,700) is in a solid spot tonight against the 76ers, offering strong value at 5.3x with a projection of 35.6 DK points. He’s been remarkably consistent for a rookie, scoring at least 33 DK points in three of his last four games while filling the stat sheet across multiple categories. With a usage rate that keeps him heavily involved and an impressive 1.15 FPPM on the season, Castle has proven he can deliver even in tough matchups. The Sixers are a middle-of-the-pack defense against guards, and Castle’s ability to contribute as both a scorer and playmaker makes him less dependent on any one stat category to hit value.

At 16.4% projected ownership, Castle is chalky compared to the field average, but it feels warranted given his steady production and mid-tier price tag. He’s appearing in nearly 20% of optimal lineups, which speaks to his viability in both cash games and tournaments. While he may not have slate-breaking upside (Boom% of 21%), his floor is high enough to justify eating the chalk in this case. If you’re looking for a reliable option in this price range with multi-category upside, Castle deserves serious consideration tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Quentin Grimes ($8,800)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,700)
• Franz Wagner ($8,600)

SF - Jayson Tatum ($11,000)

Jayson Tatum comes in at $11,000 tonight, and while that price tag is steep, there’s a lot to like about his spot against the Jazz. With Jaylen Brown sidelined, Tatum should see an even larger offensive role, which already includes a 1.47 FPPM rate and a projection of 50.6 DK points in 34.5 minutes. Utah’s defense ranks near the bottom of the league against forwards, and their pace (13th) creates additional opportunities for Boston’s stars to capitalize. Tatum has shown a massive ceiling recently, including a 76-point DK explosion earlier this month, so he’s well worth considering in tournaments despite his high salary.

The ownership (17.3%) is elevated but not prohibitive for someone with Tatum’s upside and consistency. He appears in 21.6% of optimal lineups, which indicates that he’s still one of the stronger plays on the slate even as chalk. The value at 4.6x is reasonable for his price point given his workload and matchup, so fading him could be risky if he hits his ceiling again tonight. If you’re prioritizing raw points or looking to anchor your lineups with a high-floor/high-ceiling option, Tatum makes sense as a core play in both cash games and GPPs.

More SF Plays:

• Keldon Johnson ($4,700)
• Franz Wagner ($8,600)
• Devin Vassell ($6,800)

PF - Jeremy Sochan ($5,100)

Jeremy Sochan is shaping up as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $5,100. He’s projected for 35.2 DK points, which gives him a stellar 6.9x value rating, and he appears in 38% of optimal lineups—a strong indicator that he’s worth consideration in all formats. His ability to contribute across multiple categories (1.1 FPPM) makes him appealing, especially with a projected 32 minutes against a Philadelphia team that will likely focus its defensive attention on slowing down the Spurs’ primary scoring options. While his recent scoring has been inconsistent, Sochan has shown a solid floor with double-digit points in five straight games and enough peripheral stats to boost his DFS production.

The one potential drawback here is Sochan’s high ownership (29.1%), which makes him chalky relative to the field average of 5.1%. However, this feels like justified chalk given his price point and tournament-leading Boom% of 48.8%. If you’re playing cash games or single-entry contests, it’s hard to fade such strong value in this price range. In GPPs, you could pivot elsewhere if you’re looking for lower-owned leverage plays, but fading him entirely comes with risk given how often he’s landing in optimal lineups. Overall, Sochan offers excellent salary relief without sacrificing upside—just be mindful of your lineup construction if you’re trying to differentiate from the field.

More PF Plays:

• Paolo Banchero ($9,900)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,400)
• Miles Bridges ($9,200)

C - Jusuf Nurkic ($3,700)

At just $3,700, Jusuf Nurkic stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate. With Mark Williams sidelined, Nurkic is in line for increased minutes against an OKC team that ranks middle of the pack in rebounding and interior defense. While he’s projected for only 22 minutes, Nurkic’s 1.19 FPPM rate makes him a strong per-minute producer capable of exceeding value even in limited time. His projection of 26.1 DK points translates to a 7.05x value, and he boasts a solid 40.2% Boom rate with an 18.4% optimal lineup appearance percentage—clear indicators of his upside at this price point.

The main concern here is ownership, as Nurkic is projected to be rostered by about 25% of the field—a high number for tournaments but understandable given his salary and opportunity. While chalky, this feels like justified ownership given his role and efficiency in a favorable matchup. If you’re looking to differentiate your GPP lineups, you’ll need to get creative elsewhere; however, fading Nurkic entirely could be risky given how much flexibility his salary savings provide for higher-priced studs on the slate.

More C Plays:

• Jalen Duren ($6,700)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,400)
• PJ Washington ($7,900)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!