FREE 05/12 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s NBA DFS slate is short and sweet with just two games, but both offer solid scoring potential. The Celtics at Knicks game leads the way with a 208-point total and an early tip-off at 7:30 PM ET. Later, the Timberwolves visit the Warriors in a contest with a 199.5 total at 10:00 PM ET. Both matchups have enough pace and scoring upside to build around.

With only two games, every roster spot counts, so focusing on these high totals is key. The Celtics-Knicks game should have plenty of opportunities given their offensive styles, while the late game features a fast-paced Wolves team against Golden State’s efficient offense. This slate demands sharp attention to usage and pace factors to find value.

Game Environment Analysis

BOS @ NYK (O/U: 208.0, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: BOS (30th) vs NYK (26th)
• Off Eff: BOS (2nd) 🔥 vs NYK (5th)
• Def Eff: BOS (3rd) vs NYK (15th)

MIN @ GSW (O/U: 199.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: MIN (25th) vs GSW (17th)
• Off Eff: MIN (10th) vs GSW (15th)
• Def Eff: MIN (6th) vs GSW (8th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Anthony Edwards ($9,500)

Anthony Edwards is locked in against Golden State, averaging over 1.25 FPPM and boasting a strong boom rate near 34%. His recent playoff run shows consistent high-level output, with four 25+ point games in the last six contests. The matchup is tough but familiar—he’s facing the Warriors again after multiple recent games where he’s logged heavy minutes (42-44 per game) and still delivered 47+ DK points twice. At $9,500, Edwards offers solid value at 5.5x salary with a projected 42 minutes of run, which fits well given Minnesota’s reliance on him to carry the scoring load.

Ownership sits just under 50%, which is reasonable considering his top-tier production and role as a primary scorer in a competitive series. With the game expected to be close and tempo moderate, Edwards’ floor comes from volume scoring mixed with occasional peripherals like rebounds and assists. While nearly half the field will have exposure, his combination of usage, efficiency upside, and consistent minutes makes that chalk justified for GPPs looking for both upside and reliability in this matchup.

More PG Plays:

• Jalen Brunson ($8,200)
• Derrick White ($6,700)

SG - Buddy Hield ($4,700)

Buddy Hield is coming off a strong stretch against Minnesota, hitting at least four threes in each of his last four games and consistently scoring in double digits. His role as a primary shooter for Golden State is clear, and with 33 projected minutes, he should continue to rack up points mainly through his three-point shooting. The matchup against the Timberwolves remains favorable given Minnesota’s struggles to contain perimeter scorers, which boosts Hield’s upside in this spot.

At $4,700, Hield offers excellent value with a 5.4x return on salary and the highest tournament rank on the slate. While ownership is high at about 61%, that chalk looks justified considering his consistent production and role within the Warriors’ offense. If you’re building lineups where three-point shooting matters or want a reliable floor with boom potential (20.9%), Hield fits well into both cash and GPP builds here.

More SG Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($7,200)
• Brandin Podziemski ($5,300)

SF - Jaylen Brown ($7,200)

Jaylen Brown is coming off a stretch of heavy minutes against the Knicks, averaging over 40 minutes and putting up around 20 points per game despite some inefficiency. His usage remains high, which keeps his floor solid, especially given the Celtics rely on him heavily for scoring and playmaking. At $7,200 with a 0.99 FPPM and a strong boom rate of 25.5%, Brown offers solid upside in a matchup where Boston will likely need his production again. The Knicks have been tough defensively but have allowed enough scoring opportunities for wings to make an impact.

Ownership is sitting at just over 50%, which reflects his consistent role and value at this price point. While that’s higher than the field average, it makes sense given his usage and ceiling in these playoff games. With an optimal lineup appearance near 39%, he fits well into many builds and provides balanced scoring with rebound and assist upside. If you’re looking for a safe, mid-tier option who can hit value while still offering boom potential, Brown remains a reliable choice in this spot.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,700)
• Josh Hart ($6,500)

PF - Jimmy Butler ($8,500)

Jimmy Butler remains a top DFS target at $8,500 given his consistent high usage and ability to fill the stat sheet. He’s averaging 1.12 FPPM with a strong boom rate over 31%, showing he can deliver big scoring nights regularly. The matchup against Minnesota is favorable since Butler has been the primary offensive option for Golden State in this series, especially with Curry sidelined. His recent workload is heavy, projected for 42 minutes, which supports his value of 5.5x salary multiple and explains why he appears in nearly half of optimal lineups.

Ownership around 35% is slightly above the field average but justified considering Butler’s production and role. The Warriors need him to carry the offense against a Timberwolves defense that has struggled to contain versatile wings. While some may shy away due to price or matchup concerns, his consistent volume across points, rebounds, and assists makes him a solid pivot or core play in GPPs tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,700)
• Julius Randle ($7,700)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,500)

Karl-Anthony Towns is a solid play at $7,500 given his consistent double-double production against Boston. He’s averaging 18.7 points and 15 rebounds per game in this series, with a steady 1.14 FPPM that ranks him at the top for GPP value. Despite a rough shooting night recently, Towns still managed 41 DK points and has shown the ability to rack up boards and free throws to boost his floor. With an expected 36 minutes of run time, he should continue to be one of the Knicks’ primary scoring options, especially since Boston struggles a bit defending bigs who can stretch the floor.

Ownership around 37.7% is reasonable given Towns’ role and price point; he appears in over a third of optimal lineups which reflects his strong value (5.5x). The Knicks vs Celtics games have been competitive but not high-scoring overall, so Towns’ upside comes from volume more than pace or efficiency. That moderate ownership level fits well with his profile as a reliable pivot in GPPs rather than a low-owned leverage option or chalk-heavy target. If you want exposure to this matchup on the big man spot, Towns is clearly one of the safer choices at this salary tier.

More C Plays:

• Julius Randle ($7,700)
• Draymond Green ($5,500)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!