FREE 05/13 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s NBA DFS slate is short with just two games, but both offer some interesting angles. The first game between Indiana and Cleveland has the highest total on the board at 231.5 points and tips off at 7:00 PM ET. The pace should be up, which usually means more fantasy opportunities for guards and wings who thrive in transition. The late game between Denver and Oklahoma City also has a strong total at 221 points and starts at 9:30 PM ET, so there’s a chance to adjust lineups based on what happens early.

With only two games, every pick matters more than usual, especially since these matchups feature teams that tend to push the pace. Targeting players involved in high-possession lineups or those who get volume on both ends could be key tonight. It’s also worth keeping an eye on usage rates given the limited options—there’s less room for error but potentially higher reward if you nail the right spots.

Game Environment Analysis

IND @ CLE (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -8.0)

• Pace: IND (8th) vs CLE (10th)
• Off Eff: IND (6th) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: IND (13th) vs CLE (7th)

DEN @ OKC (O/U: 221.0, Spread: -10.0)

• Pace: DEN (12th) vs OKC (6th)
• Off Eff: DEN (4th) vs OKC (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: DEN (22nd) vs OKC (1st)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,000)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a strong play tonight at $10,000 given his role and recent usage. He’s averaging 1.42 FPPM and projects for nearly 39 minutes in a high-leverage Game 5 against Denver. His ability to fill the stat sheet across points, rebounds, assists, and steals keeps his floor solid even with some shooting struggles lately—he’s hitting just over 47% from the field but under 22% from three in this series. The Thunder-Nuggets matchup offers plenty of scoring opportunities with both teams pushing pace, and Shai’s volume should remain high regardless of the game script.

Ownership around 38.7% matches well with his overall profile as the top-ranked GPP option on DFS Hero’s board, reflecting his boom potential (37.5%) and strong value (5.56x). This isn’t chalk overexposure; it makes sense given his consistent usage and ceiling in a close series that will go down to the wire. If you’re looking for a core piece who can deliver across multiple categories while maintaining upside, Shai is one of the safer anchor plays on this slate despite the moderate ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Jamal Murray ($7,400)
• Darius Garland ($6,600)

SG - Max Strus ($5,400)

Max Strus is showing solid consistency against the Pacers, averaging 13.1 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in this series while shooting over 46% from the field and 42% from deep. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—points, boards, assists—makes him a strong value at $5,400. With projected minutes around 33, he has a reliable floor and a boom upside near 15%, which fits well in GPPs where you need multi-category production.

The matchup versus Indiana remains favorable as the Pacers have struggled to contain wings who can shoot and rebound effectively. Strus ranks first on DFS Hero for this slate with a value of over 5x his salary and appears in more than a third of optimal lineups. His ownership at 43% is higher than the field average but justified given his role and recent output. For tournaments, he’s a solid core piece that can deliver steady points while providing leverage through his rebounding upside.

More SG Plays:

• Jamal Murray ($7,400)
• Donovan Mitchell ($9,100)

SF - Christian Braun ($5,200)

Christian Braun offers solid value at $5,200 with a strong projection for around 40 minutes in a matchup against OKC. He’s shown the ability to contribute across the board, averaging double-digit points and over six rebounds in these playoffs while also adding steals and assists. His shooting has been inconsistent, but his peripheral stats help maintain his fantasy floor. The Thunder’s defense allows some room for wings to rack up stats, especially if the Nuggets push pace.

Ownership sits near 36%, which is reasonable given Braun’s role and recent production. His boom rate isn’t elite at just under 14%, but he provides reliable value with a 5x multiplier on salary. With this slate lacking many mid-range options offering this kind of upside and volume, Braun makes sense as a core piece in GPPs where you want exposure to Denver’s key contributors without overspending.

More SF Plays:

• Jalen Williams ($7,800)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($4,700)

PF - Evan Mobley ($7,500)

Evan Mobley remains a strong DFS option despite a quieter outing in the last game against Indiana. He’s averaging 1.2 FPPM this postseason with a boom rate near 34%, and his recent performances show he can easily hit 40+ DK points when given 35+ minutes. The matchup against Indiana is solid for Mobley, especially since the Pacers struggle to contain versatile bigs who can stretch the floor and protect the rim. With Cleveland likely needing him to log heavy minutes again, his value at $7,500 and 5.8x value mark makes him a core play in GPPs.

Ownership is hovering around 44%, which seems about right given his upside and role in this series. Mobley appears in over 43% of optimal lineups, reflecting how important he is for lineups targeting Cleveland’s ceiling. While his last game was subdued, that feels more like an outlier than a trend, so fading completely could be risky. At this price point and with projected heavy minutes versus a middling Pacers defense, Mobley offers both safety and upside on tonight’s slate.

More PF Plays:

• Pascal Siakam ($6,300)
• Aaron Gordon ($6,200)

C - Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,900)

Isaiah Hartenstein is a strong DFS option at $5,900 given his consistent production and matchup against Denver. He’s averaging 1.15 FPPM and has a boom rate over 31%, which is impressive for his price point. The Thunder have leaned on him heavily in this series, especially on the boards where he’s averaging nearly nine rebounds per game. With projected minutes around 30, he offers steady volume in a game that should stay competitive, keeping his floor solid. Denver isn’t great at defending bigs on the glass, so Hartenstein’s rebounding upside adds to his value.

His ownership sits near 30%, which makes sense given his role and recent output. At just under 6K with a 5.9x value projection and appearing in over a third of optimal lineups, he fits well as a mid-tier building block in GPPs. While not the flashiest play, Hartenstein’s consistent stat lines and ability to rack up points through rebounds and assists give him leverage against similarly priced options who are more volatile. If you want exposure to this OKC-DEN matchup without chasing chalk studs, Hartenstein is worth consideration.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
• Aaron Gordon ($6,200)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!