FREE 11/17 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and wraps up at 8:00 PM ET, giving you solid late-swap windows to adjust based on early action. The spread of start times should help you pivot if some games underperform, especially with a mix of paces across the board. A few matchups stand out for their potential volume, but the real DFS focus comes down to stacking where the environment supports it.

The highest totals are NYK at MIA at 244.5 and CHA at TOR at 239.5, both tipping at 7:30 PM ET. Those numbers point to uptempo games with room for big outings, so target correlated plays there if you’re building around high-scoring potential. The rest of the slate has lower implied totals, which means prioritizing value and efficiency to hit those salary caps.

Game Environment Analysis

MIL @ CLE (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: MIL (16th) vs CLE (7th)
• Off Eff: MIL (9th) vs CLE (15th)
• Def Eff: MIL (19th) vs CLE (11th)

IND @ DET (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: IND (9th) vs DET (13th)
• Off Eff: IND (30th) vs DET (16th)
• Def Eff: IND (23rd) vs DET (2nd)

LAC @ PHI (O/U: 220.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: LAC (29th) vs PHI (18th)
• Off Eff: LAC (21st) vs PHI (11th)
• Def Eff: LAC (24th) vs PHI (16th)

NYK @ MIA (O/U: 244.5, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: NYK (19th) vs MIA (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (3rd) vs MIA (10th)
• Def Eff: NYK (18th) vs MIA (12th)

CHA @ TOR (O/U: 239.5, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: CHA (20th) vs TOR (11th)
• Off Eff: CHA (19th) vs TOR (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHA (26th) 🎯 vs TOR (13th)

OKC @ NOP (O/U: 225.5, Spread: 17.5)

• Pace: OKC (24th) vs NOP (27th)
• Off Eff: OKC (5th) 🔥 vs NOP (26th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs NOP (28th) 🎯
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

DAL @ MIN (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -14.5)

• Pace: DAL (4th) vs MIN (14th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DAL (29th) vs MIN (4th)
• Def Eff: DAL (5th) vs MIN (15th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Miles McBride ($4,300)

Miles McBride delivers exceptional value at his $4,300 salary, projecting for 27.2 DK points that equate to a 6.33x return while boasting a 33.0% boom rate. He steps into 30 projected minutes against the Heat, where his 0.91 FPPM underscores steady production from a role that includes 8.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game on efficient 38.0% three-point shooting. High ownership at 29.2% reflects sharp market recognition of his consistent floor, averaging 17.1 DK points over his last seven games.

This matchup favors McBride’s perimeter skills, as Miami’s defense concedes opportunities to secondary ball-handlers in expanded roles. With a 22.6% optimal lineup rate and Hero Rank of 22, he anchors builds without salary constraints, turning modest usage of 15.78% into reliable multi-category contributions that elevate lineups across the slate.

More PG Plays:

• James Harden ($9,900)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800)

SG - Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,100)

Bogdan Bogdanovic sustains strong recent form, averaging 26.6 DK points over his last three games and 27.2 across the past five, surpassing his season mark of 20.6. He logs 30 projected minutes versus Philadelphia, leveraging a 0.88 FPPM to compile 9.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists with 37.1% three-point accuracy. Ownership spikes to 30.5% due to his 6.41x value projection of 26.3 points, making him a cornerstone for value-driven strategies.

Philadelphia’s defense exposes gaps against shooting guards in fast-paced games, amplifying Bogdanovic’s 17.78% usage rate. His 32.0% boom potential and 21.5% optimal rate position him as a high-floor pivot, blending scoring efficiency at 40.4% from the field with defensive peripherals that consistently push toward 30-point outings.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,100)
• Donovan Mitchell ($9,200)

SF - De’Andre Hunter ($4,500)

De’Andre Hunter averages 18.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists this season, fueling a 29.9-point projection that delivers 6.64x value at $4,500. He commands 30 minutes against Milwaukee with a robust 1.00 FPPM and 38.0% boom rate, capitalizing on 24.40% usage to shoot 44.2% from the field. Even with a slight recent dip to 27.4 DK points over three games, his season-long 30.7 average and 28.4% optimal rate highlight untapped upside in this spot.

Milwaukee’s perimeter defense struggles against versatile forwards, opening lanes for Hunter’s scoring volume and rebounding prowess. High ownership at 44.9% aligns with his Hero Rank of 18, as he thrives in elevated roles to produce multi-faceted lines that exceed projections and solidify forward builds.

More SF Plays:

• Josh Hart ($6,900)
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($6,900)

PF - Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500)

Karl-Anthony Towns trends upward with 53.2 DK points across his last three games, eclipsing his season average of 47.3 and projecting for 53.4 tonight at $9,500. He dominates 35 minutes versus Miami, posting 21.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on 43.9% field goal shooting and 34.8% from three. A 36.0% boom rate and 1.52 FPPM underscore his efficiency, while 26.15% usage drives double-doubles that anchor high-scoring outputs.

This matchup exploits Miami’s interior weaknesses, allowing Towns to feast on rebounds and mid-range opportunities in a game with favorable pace. His 27.2% optimal rate and Hero Rank of 7, paired with 40.3% ownership, confirm his status as a premium anchor who elevates entire slates through versatile production and PER of 21.53.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
• Evan Mobley ($7,800)

C - Andre Drummond ($5,900)

Andre Drummond surges with 35.7 DK points in his last three games, well above his season average of 24.1, and projects for 32.3 in 32 minutes against the Clippers. At $5,900, he offers 5.48x value through 8.0 points and 8.8 rebounds on elite 59.3% field goal efficiency, complemented by a 19.69 PER despite 12.99% usage. His 28.0% boom rate signals rebounding explosions that pad stat lines effectively.

The Clippers’ frontcourt rotation creates rebounding vacuums for Drummond’s physicality, enhancing his role in a matchup ripe for double-digit boards. With 20.6% ownership and an 18.3% optimal rate, plus Hero Rank of 15, he provides center stability by converting possessions into 1.01 FPPM, turning volume minutes into lineup boosters.

More C Plays:

• Ivica Zubac ($7,300)
• Naz Reid ($5,100)

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