FREE 11/18 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game slate starts at 7 PM ET and ends at 8 PM ET, giving us a compact window with some solid DFS upside. With only four matchups, stacking options feel straightforward, but the variance in pace and totals means you can target games that fit your build. Overall, it’s a balanced setup where implied totals guide the value plays without too much noise.

The top totals stand out here: MEM at SAS hits 233.5 at 8 PM ET, and DET at ATL is right behind at 229.5 starting at 7:30 PM ET. Both involve teams that push the pace, so they’re prime for correlation stacks if you’re chasing high ownership spots. The rest of the slate leans lower, which could let you pivot to value in those games for differentiation.

Game Environment Analysis

GSW @ ORL (O/U: 223.5, Spread: 3.5)

• Pace: GSW (16th) vs ORL (18th)
• Off Eff: GSW (22nd) vs ORL (20th)
• Def Eff: GSW (9th) vs ORL (6th)

DET @ ATL (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: DET (14th) vs ATL (9th)
• Off Eff: DET (16th) vs ATL (17th)
• Def Eff: DET (2nd) vs ATL (5th)

BOS @ BKN (O/U: 223.5, Spread: 10.5)

• Pace: BOS (30th) vs BKN (26th)
• Off Eff: BOS (11th) vs BKN (24th)
• Def Eff: BOS (10th) vs BKN (29th) 🎯

MEM @ SAS (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: MEM (5th) vs SAS (23rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (27th) vs SAS (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: MEM (20th) vs SAS (4th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - De’Aaron Fox ($8,300)

De’Aaron Fox trends upward with 43.1 DK points across his last three games, surpassing his season average of 38.9 and elevating his overall efficiency. He averages 22.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 6.8 assists while shooting 51.2% from the field and 37.5% from three, all bolstered by a 27.23% usage rate that positions him as the Kings’ primary creator.

Fox faces the Grizzlies in a matchup ripe for exploitation, as Memphis ranks outside the top 10 in defending point guards, allowing ample opportunities for his speed and playmaking. Projected for 35.0 minutes at 1.30 fantasy points per minute, he delivers a 5.47x value with a 28.0% boom rate, making him indispensable despite 40.3% ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Derrick White ($7,200)
• Payton Pritchard ($6,300)

SG - Desmond Bane ($7,300)

Desmond Bane faces the Warriors, where Golden State’s perimeter defense concedes the fourth-most points to shooting guards over the last month, opening lanes for his scoring touch. He maintains consistent production at 36.8 DK points in his last three outings, aligning with 33.9 over five games and exceeding his 29.6 season average of 16.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.4 assists on 43.6% field goal shooting.

Bane logs 35.5 projected minutes with a 1.07 fantasy points per minute pace, fueling a 5.22x value and 21.0% boom potential that fits seamlessly into builds. His 22.94% usage rate ensures steady involvement, rendering him a reliable top SG option even at 30.4% ownership.

More SG Plays:

• Julian Champagnie ($4,700)
• Payton Pritchard ($6,300)

SF - Michael Porter Jr. ($7,600)

Michael Porter Jr. averages 27.3 points over his previous six games, converting 48.2% of his field goals including multiple 30-plus point explosions like his recent 34-point, nine-rebound, seven-assist masterpiece. He follows with 24 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists in the next contest, showcasing his versatility as a scorer and facilitator for the Nets.

Porter Jr. encounters Boston in a high-stakes environment where the Celtics struggle against versatile forwards, yielding the sixth-highest fantasy points to the position this season. At $7,600 with 33.5 projected minutes and 1.29 fantasy points per minute, he projects 43.3 DK points for 5.69x value and a 33.0% boom rate, securing his spot as the premier SF amid 40.1% ownership.

More SF Plays:

• Julian Champagnie ($4,700)
• Keldon Johnson ($5,200)

PF - Vince Williams Jr. ($4,000)

Vince Williams Jr. returns from a brief ankle tweak to start the second half against Cleveland, positioning him for expanded minutes now that Ja Morant sits out with a calf issue. He posts 24.0 DK points in 18 minutes during his most recent full appearance, blending 11 points, four rebounds, three assists, and three threes on efficient 3-of-5 shooting.

Williams Jr. travels to San Antonio, where the Spurs rank last in rebounding and defensive efficiency against small-ball forwards, amplifying his multi-category contributions. Priced at just $4,000 for 28.0 projected minutes and 0.94 fantasy points per minute, he offers 6.60x value with a 35.0% boom rate, transforming low-salary slots into high-impact plays at 33.2% ownership.

More PF Plays:

• Keldon Johnson ($5,200)
• Jalen Johnson ($9,500)

C - Neemias Queta ($5,200)

Neemias Queta operates in a favorable road spot against Brooklyn, where the Nets allow the third-most rebounds and points to centers lacking three-point volume. He surges to 30.1 DK points over his last three games, topping his 26.1 season average of 9.3 points and 8.1 rebounds on 61.3% field goal efficiency, driven by a 19.40 PER in 24.5 minutes per game.

Queta draws 27.0 projected minutes with a 1.08 fantasy points per minute clip, yielding 29.3 DK points and 5.63x value from his 14.53% usage as Boston’s reliable big. His 22.0% boom rate shines in this rebound-heavy matchup, providing center stability at moderate 16.1% ownership without salary strain.

More C Plays:

• Jalen Duren ($8,000)
• Nic Claxton ($6,400)

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