FREE 12/04 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

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I don't even want to talk about last night. I rostered pretty much everyone that got hurt (Garland, Brogdon, Mann in SD) or was in a blowout. Somehow I actually got my SE across the cash line, but nothing else worked out for me. Tonight's 6 gamer has some slow paced, low implied total games and then 2 actually promising games. It will be interesting how the field rosters these games. I actually kind of like it, but we will see. With that said... Our December 4th Starting Five is now LIVE!

PG: D’Angelo Russell ($4,900)

Still far too cheap if we are going to be playing 25+ minutes starting or not. He did start last game, but I expect Reaves to be back so Russell will head back to the bench. In his last 4, he has scored 28+ DK points in all of them. His matchup off the bench might be even better given the Heat don’t have the best guard depth. His price makes it easy to fit in other studs and he is fighting with Mike Conley for ownership and at the moment, Conley is projecting better. That alone will bring Russell’s ownership down. I know he is boom or bust in most regards and if his shot isn’t falling off the bench they don’t go to him. I just find looking back he is quite streaky and right now he is hot. Even with Miami being a slow and more defensive team, but they do have a middle of the pack PG DvP which is where they seem to be more vulnerable. I think between the price and his ownership dropping going back to the bench, I want to ride with him one more time just on the merit he is playing great ball right now.

Honorable Mentions:

• Damian Lillard ($9,600)
• Trae Young ($8,800)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($8,200)
• Dennis Schroder ($7,500)
• Mike Conley ($4,800)

SG: Derrick White ($6,600)

On paper and in the projections, SG kind of sucks tonight. White is just about the only one that stands out in a way. He faces Detroit and the Celtics have one of the highest team totals on the slate. For his price, he is playing great with 33+ DK points in 4 straight games. The defensive pressure he should see isn’t anything crazy and Tatum + Brown will get more attention anyways. I just don’t love anyone at this position tonight, so I am rolling with the one that I feel is in the best matchup comparative to the price tag.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
• Norman Powell ($6,100)
• Payton Pritchard ($5,500)
• Dalton Knecht ($4,700)
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,900)

SF: Jimmy Butler ($7,500)

He is questionable tonight, so keep that in mind. However, if he plays, I don’t see anyone going to him and the data really favors him. They play the Lakers who are bottom 6 in defensive efficiency and have the 4th worst SF DvP this season, which is best for this slate. Butler always shows up against the Lakers, scoring 44+ DK points in each of the last 4 meetings. Even for a 6 game slate, I can’t see him being more than 5% owned which is a steal if you ask me. DFS Hero tends to believe it with just a 4% ownership projection. It is risky given the injury status, but if he plays he is a great leverage GPP piece to make you unique.

Honorable Mentions:

• Franz Wagner ($9,800)
• Paul George ($7,500)
• Cameron Johnson ($6,600)
• De’Andre Hunter ($4,900)
• Zaccharie Risacher ($4,000)

PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,100)

I want to go with Cameron Johnson here, but I can’t go with another questionable guy and risk him being out for content sake. The next best spot on the slate is none other than Giannis. If you can find the value to put around him I think you do it. He has the highest ceiling on the slate and gets to face the Hawks in a pace up matchup against a bottom 10 defense. His last two games against them he has 69 and 76 DK points. I want pieces from this game as it has the highest implied game total on the slate by over 10 points. I think the field will opt to go down to Tatum, AD or Franz who are much cheaper and also in a good spots which will keep his ownership at bay. If that is going to be the case I will be all over him. Just looking at the DFS Hero data, the early projections have most going to a balanced build and starting with Harden. Again, if you can fit him in, I think you get to Giannis tonight.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jayson Tatum ($10,200)
• Rui Hachimura ($4,800)
• Naz Reid ($4,600)
• Jarace Walker ($3,800)
• Derrick Jones Jr. ($3,700)

C: Clint Capela ($5,200)

Day in and day out, Capela almost always gets disrespected with his price tag. Yes he is splitting with Okongwu, but that has not mattered so far this season. He has 28+ DK points in 10 of the last 12 games with numerous 35+ DK point games. With that output, he should be priced in and around the low $6,000 range. Take advantage of the pricing inefficiency tonight. He plays Milwaukee who does have a good C DvP, but on this slate there is only 1 team that has a bottom 10 C DvP and that is the Lakers. A lot of risky plays tonight as Capela could get the backseat to Okongwu any given night, but I am willing to take the risk even if the ownership is projected to be top 3 amongst Cs for the slate.

Honorable Mentions:

• Anthony Davis ($10,500)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,000)
• Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000)
• Myles Turner ($6,900)
• Goga Bitadze ($5,100)
• Onyeka Okongwu ($4,600)