FREE 12/05 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 11-game NBA DFS slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET with Miami at Orlando and wraps up an hour later at 8:00 PM ET, giving you solid late-swap windows to adjust based on early action. With games spread out like this, pace and matchup flow could dictate a lot—expect some variability in how teams push the tempo, especially in those higher-scoring environments that boost usage for key players.

The top totals stand out for DFS potential: Utah at New York at 242.5 and Miami at Orlando at 241.5, both tipping early and setting up for solid point totals if the paces hold. These could be anchor spots for builds, with implied outputs favoring volume from stars in efficient offenses, while the rest of the slate mixes in lower ceilings that reward stacking the right edges.

Game Environment Analysis

LAL @ BOS (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: LAL (21st) vs BOS (30th)
• Off Eff: LAL (6th) 🔥 vs BOS (4th) 🔥
• Def Eff: LAL (19th) vs BOS (16th)

MIA @ ORL (O/U: 241.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: MIA (1st) vs ORL (11th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (13th) vs ORL (9th)
• Def Eff: MIA (2nd) vs ORL (6th)

DEN @ ATL (O/U: 238.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: DEN (25th) vs ATL (8th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DEN (1st) vs ATL (17th)
• Def Eff: DEN (18th) vs ATL (9th)

SAS @ CLE (O/U: 238.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: SAS (19th) vs CLE (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAS (7th) vs CLE (10th)
• Def Eff: SAS (8th) vs CLE (13th)

POR @ DET (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: POR (3rd) vs DET (10th)
• Off Eff: POR (21st) vs DET (15th)
• Def Eff: POR (21st) vs DET (3rd)

UTA @ NYK (O/U: 242.5, Spread: -15.5)

• Pace: UTA (6th) vs NYK (26th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: UTA (18th) vs NYK (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: UTA (25th) 🎯 vs NYK (15th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

CHA @ TOR (O/U: 230.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: CHA (24th) vs TOR (16th)
• Off Eff: CHA (23rd) vs TOR (11th)
• Def Eff: CHA (27th) 🎯 vs TOR (10th)

IND @ CHI (O/U: 237.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: IND (12th) vs CHI (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: IND (29th) vs CHI (19th)
• Def Eff: IND (22nd) vs CHI (23rd)

PHX @ HOU (O/U: 221.5, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: PHX (23rd) vs HOU (29th)
• Off Eff: PHX (12th) vs HOU (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHX (12th) vs HOU (4th)

PHI @ MIL (O/U: 221.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: PHI (15th) vs MIL (20th)
• Off Eff: PHI (16th) vs MIL (14th)
• Def Eff: PHI (14th) vs MIL (20th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,600)

Kevin Porter Jr. continues to surge since returning from injury, averaging 23.0 points, 6.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.0 steals across his first three games back while shooting over 55 percent from the floor and nearly 58 percent from three. His latest outing featured a game-high 26 points and a season-high seven assists in 35 minutes during Milwaukee’s win over Detroit, showcasing his ability to lead the offense when key players like Giannis step up less. At $6,600, Porter projects for 41.2 DraftKings points with a 44.0 percent boom rate, making him a cornerstone at point guard.

The matchup against Philadelphia offers Porter ample opportunities, as the 76ers rank in the bottom half of the league defending perimeter guards, allowing 24.5 points per game to the position. With projected 34 minutes and a 1.21 fantasy points per minute pace, Porter’s high usage and multi-category production position him for another 40-plus point explosion, especially in a game environment with solid implied totals for Milwaukee. His 24.5 percent optimal lineup rate underscores his elite status on this slate.

More PG Plays:

• James Harden ($9,200)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,400)

SG - Austin Reaves ($9,500)

Austin Reaves faces a tough Boston defense on the road, yet his consistent production turns this into a prime spot for upside at shooting guard. He averages 28.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.8 assists this season on 52.6 percent field goal shooting and 37.1 percent from deep, delivering 49.0 DraftKings points per game overall and 50.9 over his last five outings. Reaves thrives in high-usage roles at 28.59 percent, posting a 25.14 player efficiency rating that aligns perfectly with his 38 projected minutes tonight.

Los Angeles’ implied team total against the Celtics ranks among the slate’s higher marks, fueling Reaves’ path to 51.7 projected points and a 33.0 percent boom potential at $9,500. Boston concedes 6.5 assists and 5.2 threes to shooting guards lately, vulnerabilities Reaves exploits with his playmaking and shooting volume. His 13.7 percent optimal rate and hero rank of ninth highlight why he anchors winning lineups in this fast-paced environment.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($9,400)
• Collin Gillespie ($6,900)

SF - Jake LaRavia ($4,500)

Jake LaRavia delivers exceptional value at the $4,500 salary cap floor, projecting 26.6 DraftKings points for a 5.91 times return that outpaces his modest season averages of 9.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.9 assists on efficient 47.4 percent shooting. His recent trend shows 18.7 points over the last three games, up from 13.1 in the prior five, as he carves out larger roles with 31 projected minutes and a 0.86 fantasy points per minute clip. LaRavia’s 15.37 percent usage rate yields steady contributions across boards and scoring, making him a salary saver with punch.

The Los Angeles versus Boston tilt provides a high-scoring backdrop where LaRavia’s versatility at small forward/power forward shines, especially against a Celtics frontcourt that yields 28.3 DraftKings points to the position in recent matchups. With a 27.0 percent boom rate and 16.4 percent optimal inclusion, he turns limited pricing into lineup flexibility, supporting stacks with higher-salary stars. His 20.4 percent projected ownership reflects smart fades from the field, but his upward trajectory demands inclusion as a top pick.

More SF Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($9,500)
• Deni Avdija ($9,300)

PF - Jeremy Sochan ($3,400)

Jeremy Sochan operates in a favorable Cleveland matchup that boosts his multi-faceted role for the Spurs, where he maintains steady output of 6.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists on 50.0 percent field goal efficiency and 30.4 percent from three. His consistency shines through at 14.1 DraftKings points per game this season, with last three games at 14.3 and seven at 14.1, all packed into 20.5 projected minutes that leverage his defensive prowess for steals and blocks. Sochan’s 16.11 percent usage and 12.11 PER ensure reliable peripheral stats in any rotation.

San Antonio’s visit to Cleveland carries an implied total ripe for under-the-radar production, as the Cavaliers allow 12.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals to power forwards, aligning with Sochan’s strengths in a $3,400 package projecting 21.8 points and 6.40 times value. A 27.0 percent boom rate pairs with 16.6 percent optimal rate, positioning him as an efficient pivot in builds targeting the position’s top tier. His 22.3 percent ownership trails only the elite, yet his floor elevates entire lineups.

More PF Plays:

• Evan Mobley ($8,600)
• Pascal Siakam ($8,500)

C - Kelly Olynyk ($3,200)

Kelly Olynyk has averaged 4.5 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists this season on sharp 50.0 percent shooting from the field and 31.3 percent from three, sustaining 10.9 DraftKings points per game with recent upticks to 11.0 over seven contests. He logs 22 projected minutes at a 0.98 fantasy points per minute pace, where his 17.14 percent usage and 14.09 PER translate to efficient scoring and playmaking as San Antonio’s big man option. Olynyk’s consistency in limited roles builds a strong base for value-driven lineups.

The Spurs’ road game against Cleveland exposes mismatches for Olynyk at center, as the Cavaliers rank outside the top 10 in defending points in the paint and opponent three-point makes to bigs, areas where he contributes steadily. At $3,200, his 21.5 projection yields 6.73 times value with a 30.0 percent boom rate, making him indispensable for cap relief while hitting 16.4 percent of optimal builds. High 35.5 percent ownership signals market respect for his role in a slate favoring versatile centers.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,900)
• Evan Mobley ($8,600)

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