FREE 12/04 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and wraps up by 8:00 PM ET, giving us a compact window with solid late-swap options. The overall pace looks mixed, but a few matchups stand out for their potential to drive usage and points, which could help differentiate stacks in DFS.

The highest totals come from MIN at NOP tipping at 8:00 PM ET with 233.5 and UTA at BKN starting at 7:30 PM ET at 231.5. These environments favor high-volume builds, especially if you target the key scorers in those games to anchor your lineup.

Game Environment Analysis

GSW @ PHI (O/U: 222.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: GSW (17th) vs PHI (15th)
• Off Eff: GSW (22nd) vs PHI (16th)
• Def Eff: GSW (10th) vs PHI (15th)

BOS @ WAS (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 9.5)

• Pace: BOS (30th) vs WAS (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BOS (5th) 🔥 vs WAS (27th)
• Def Eff: BOS (16th) vs WAS (30th) 🎯

UTA @ BKN (O/U: 231.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: UTA (6th) vs BKN (27th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: UTA (21st) vs BKN (26th)
• Def Eff: UTA (28th) 🎯 vs BKN (27th) 🎯

LAL @ TOR (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: LAL (19th) vs TOR (14th)
• Off Eff: LAL (6th) vs TOR (13th)
• Def Eff: LAL (18th) vs TOR (7th)

MIN @ NOP (O/U: 233.5, Spread: 12.5)

• Pace: MIN (16th) vs NOP (24th)
• Off Eff: MIN (8th) 🔥 vs NOP (24th)
• Def Eff: MIN (13th) vs NOP (29th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Derrick White ($7,500)

Derrick White trends upward with 38.5 DK points across his last three games, surpassing his five-game average of 34.7 and season mark of 35.4. He logs 33.4 minutes per game on average, fueling a usage rate of 22.95 percent that translates to 16.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists while shooting 37 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from three. White’s projected 34 minutes against Washington amplify his fantasy points per minute at 1.25, positioning him to exceed his 42.6-point projection in a matchup where the Wizards struggle to contain versatile guards.

This salary of $7,500 delivers 5.67 times value, backed by a 33 percent boom rate and 31.6 percent optimal lineup inclusion that ranks him 12th overall. Boston’s efficient offense elevates White’s role alongside Tatum and Brown, ensuring steady touches and scoring opportunities. His high ownership of 36.5 percent reflects the field’s recognition of his consistent output in favorable road environments like this one.

More PG Plays:

• Payton Pritchard ($6,800)
• Anfernee Simons ($4,700)

SG - Austin Reaves ($8,300)

Austin Reaves maintains rock-solid consistency, averaging 44.8 DK points over his last three games and 46.1 across five, closely aligning with his season average of 48.0. He commands 36.5 minutes per contest, driving a 28.21 percent usage rate for 28.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.6 assists on elite 51.9 percent field goal shooting and 36.4 percent from beyond the arc. Reaves’ PER of 24.49 underscores his efficiency as a primary scorer for the Lakers in high-tempo settings.

Facing Toronto on the road, Reaves benefits from a matchup against a Raptors defense vulnerable to perimeter attacks, boosting his projected 46.9 points and 5.65 times value at $8,300. With a 36 percent boom rate and 35.6 percent optimal rate placing him ninth in hero rank, his 37.4 percent ownership signals trust in his ability to deliver multi-category explosions. Los Angeles’ implied total supports his ceiling in this spot.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,600)
• Anfernee Simons ($4,700)

SF - Sam Hauser ($3,900)

Sam Hauser surges with 22.6 DK points in his last three outings, well above his five-game average of 18.7 and season norm of 15.8. He stretches the floor effectively, averaging 6.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 22.1 minutes while hitting 35.7 percent from the field and 35 percent from three-point range. Hauser’s 14.13 percent usage rate fits seamlessly into Boston’s spacing needs, enhancing his 0.88 fantasy points per minute.

At just $3,900, Hauser crushes value at 5.87 times his salary, with a projected 22.9 points, 21 percent boom rate, and 14.7 percent optimal inclusion that ranks him 32nd but punches above his weight. The Wizards’ perimeter defense leaks points to forwards, opening lanes for Hauser’s projected 26 minutes. His 25.1 percent ownership highlights the bargain he represents in lineups seeking affordable depth.

More SF Plays:

• Jaden McDaniels ($5,500)
• Saddiq Bey ($6,700)

PF - Danny Wolf ($3,900)

Danny Wolf faces Utah in a matchup ripe for exploitation, where the Jazz rank near the bottom in defending power forwards and centers. He heats up recently with 24.3 DK points over his last three games, eclipsing his five-game mark of 17.1 and season average of 13.3. Wolf contributes 6.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in limited 13.6 minutes, converting at 45.5 percent from the field and an impressive 47.1 percent from three.

This $3,900 salary unlocks 6.54 times value, fueled by a 34 percent boom rate and 22.4 percent optimal rate that vaults him to third in hero rank. Projected for 25.5 points in 24 minutes at 1.06 fantasy points per minute, Wolf thrives in Brooklyn’s up-tempo system against Utah’s porous interior. His 20.2 percent ownership underscores the upside of his efficient role in this favorable environment.

More PF Plays:

• LeBron James ($8,500)
• Julius Randle ($8,300)

C - Neemias Queta ($5,300)

Neemias Queta anchors the frontcourt with season averages of 9.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 23.7 minutes, shooting a blistering 65.6 percent from the field. His PER of 21.10 and 14.79 percent usage rate highlight his rebounding prowess and rim protection, making him a double-double threat whenever he sees extended run. Queta’s projected 26 minutes against Washington elevate his floor in Boston’s rotation.

Washington’s weak interior defense cedes rebounds and easy buckets, aligning perfectly with Queta’s skill set for a 32.3-point projection and 6.10 times value at $5,300. A 32 percent boom rate and 18.2 percent optimal inclusion rank him 20th, while 24.9 percent ownership captures his reliability. This spot maximizes his athleticism in a game script favoring Celtic bigs.

More C Plays:

• Nic Claxton ($6,600)
• Sandro Mamukelashvili ($4,500)

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