Every team opens its season tonight, and the best environment on the board is Jazz–Grizzlies at a 241.5 total, the highest on the slate. Timberwolves–Heat sits second at 240.5 and Pacers–Pelicans third at 239.1. The 11-game slate locks at 7:00 PM ET. The Raptors carry the top implied total at 124.3 as 10.5-point favorites over the Bulls, and the Grizzlies and Wizards tie for second at 121.5. The Rockets lay 10 against the Mavericks, the other double-digit spread.
The injury news opens minutes across the cheap end of the board. The Hornets are without Kon Knueppel and Coby White, the Warriors without Jimmy Butler, Brandin Podziemski and Kristaps Porzingis, and the Clippers without Bradley Beal and Brandon Ingram. The Jazz lose Jusuf Nurkic and the Bulls lose Nic Claxton, which hands center minutes to the next men up. Deni Avdija (DK $8,200) is questionable for Suns–Trail Blazers, a 10:00 PM ET tip, which makes him a late-swap spot.
Injury Watch
- Kon Knueppel (Hornets, out)
- Coby White (Hornets, out)
- Jimmy Butler (Warriors, out)
- Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz, out)
- Brandon Ingram (Clippers, out)
- Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors, out)
- Bradley Beal (Clippers, out)
- Deni Avdija (DK $8,200) (Trail Blazers, questionable)
Point Guard
Darius Garland (DK $7,000)
Bradley Beal and Brandon Ingram are out, and Garland runs the Clippers against the Kings with a 25.8% usage rate. His props sit at 22.7 points and 7.7 assists. The Clippers are 5-point favorites.
He projects for 33 minutes, and he is 21.1% owned with a 29.9% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at point guard. He carries a leverage of 8.8.
Ty Jerome (DK $6,100)
Jerome plays in the slate's highest-total game, against the Jazz, with a 32.7% usage rate in 25 projected minutes. His prop sits at 19.8 points. He is a popular point guard with a 23.6% optimal rate.
Dennis Schroder (DK $3,700)
Schroder averaged 20.9 DK points last season. He starts for the Hornets against the Nets, and Coby White and Kon Knueppel being out opens 28 projected minutes for him. He is the best value at point guard, and he is 18.3% owned with an 18.4% optimal rate.
Shooting Guard
Grayson Allen (DK $4,300)
Allen starts for the Hornets against the Nets with 28 projected minutes. His props sit at 14 points and 2.6 threes. His 6.40 value is the best at shooting guard.
He is 27.3% owned with a 41.3% optimal rate. His leverage of 14.0 leads shooting guards as well.
Jalen Green (DK $6,300)
Usage drives Green's case for the Suns against the Trail Blazers: a 32.0% rate over 32 projected minutes. He is 21.2% owned with a 22.8% optimal rate.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (DK $4,700)
Oubre projects for 32 minutes on the Pacers' wing against the Pelicans, with Aaron Nesmith out. He is 7.6% owned with a 16.4% optimal rate. His leverage of 8.8 ranks second at shooting guard.
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard (DK $7,400)
The Raptors carry the slate's top implied total, 124.3, as 10.5-point favorites over the Bulls. Leonard's props sit at 24.6 points and 1.6 steals.
With 32 projected minutes, Leonard carries a 40.3 Hero Projection, the top projection at small forward. His ceiling sits at 60.2. The field piles in on him, and his 27.6% optimal rate ranks second at small forward.
Franz Wagner (DK $6,900)
Wagner's prop sits at 20.5 points for the Magic against the Hawks. He carries a 27.1% usage rate over 33 projected minutes. He is a crowd favorite, and his 18.6% optimal rate ranks third at small forward.
Gui Santos (DK $4,900)
The Warriors are without Jimmy Butler and Brandin Podziemski, and Santos starts against the Lakers with 29 projected minutes and an 18.7% usage rate. He is 10.6% owned with a 17.6% optimal rate.
Power Forward
Jaren Jackson Jr. (DK $6,400)
Jusuf Nurkic's absence opens minutes for Jackson, who projects for 32 for the Jazz against the Grizzlies in the slate's highest total. His props sit at 18.2 points and 1.4 blocks. He carries a 25.6% usage rate.
Last season he averaged 34.4 DK points. He is 29.1% owned with a 35.1% optimal rate. His leverage of 6.0 ranks third.
Draymond Green (DK $4,500)
Green anchors the Warriors' frontcourt against the Lakers with Kristaps Porzingis out, and he projects for 29 minutes. He is the best value at power forward, and he is 15.3% owned with a 28.6% optimal rate. His leverage of 13.3 makes him a play for Build & Sim to size.
Anthony Davis (DK $7,600)
With AJ Dybantsa out, Davis carries the Wizards against the Bucks, with 32 projected minutes and a 21-point prop. The Wizards' 121.5 implied total ties for second on the slate. He is a heavily rostered power forward with a 17.3% optimal rate.
Center
Domantas Sabonis (DK $7,700)
The Kings face the Clippers with Maxime Raynaud out, and Sabonis carries their frontcourt with 33 projected minutes and a 23.0% usage rate. His props sit at 12.2 rebounds and 17.6 points.
He averaged 38.3 DK points last season. His 38.9 Hero Projection sits close behind Bam Adebayo (DK $8,500) at 39.2. He is a widely rostered center with a 17.8% optimal rate, third at the position.
Isaiah Jackson (DK $4,700)
The Clippers are 5-point favorites over the Kings, and Jackson starts at center with 24 projected minutes. He is 11.4% owned with a 12.2% optimal rate.
Jalen Smith (DK $5,000)
Nic Claxton is out, and Smith steps in at center for the Bulls against the Raptors with 30 projected minutes and a 5.9% optimal rate. His props sit at 11.8 points and 7 rebounds. He is a well-owned center with a 19.0% usage rate.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Luka Doncic (DK $11,000) as the default stud and Darius Garland (DK $7,000) as the chalk guard, with Dennis Schroder (DK $3,700) as the go-to cheap play. It splits on Doncic against Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $10,000) and on Jalen Johnson (DK $9,000), while a contrarian view pays up for Anthony Edwards (DK $8,800). The news it keys on runs through the Hornets' and Warriors' injuries and the Bulls' opening at center. DFS Hero backs the Garland call with a 29.9% optimal rate against his 21.1% ownership. It pushes back on Antetokounmpo, who carries 24.1% ownership against an 11.6% optimal rate.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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