The Cavaliers and the Nuggets both play their season openers on Thursday, and both games carry totals in the 230s. Cavaliers–76ers sits at 237.1, with the 76ers favored by 2.5 and implied for 119.8. Nuggets–Thunder sits at 236.5, with the Thunder favored by 8 and implied for 122.5 against the Nuggets' 114.0. The two-game slate locks at 7:00 PM ET with Cavaliers–76ers, and Nuggets–Thunder tips at 9:30 PM ET.
Jarrett Allen (DK $6,300) is questionable for the Cavaliers, and his game tips at lock. Dean Wade (DK $3,300) is questionable for the 76ers. Spencer Jones (DK $3,000) is questionable for the Nuggets and is a late-swap check, since his game starts after lock. The Thunder are without Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber, the 76ers are without Dominick Barlow, Tacko Fall and Ariel Hukporti, and the Nuggets are without Julian Strawther.
Injury Watch
- Jarrett Allen (DK $6,300) (Cavaliers, questionable)
- Nikola Topic (Thunder, out)
- Dean Wade (DK $3,300) (76ers, questionable)
- Spencer Jones (DK $3,000) (Nuggets, questionable)
- Dominick Barlow (76ers, out)
- Nae'Qwan Tomlin (Cavaliers, out)
- Thomas Sorber (Thunder, out)
- Julian Strawther (Nuggets, out)
Point Guard
Ajay Mitchell (DK $4,400)
Ajay Mitchell is the cheap way into the Thunder, the 8-point favorites against the Nuggets. He projects for 23 minutes, the same workload he logged against the Spurs on October 20 in an 18.8 DK-point game.
Mitchell's props line asks for 11.2 points. He is 27.7% owned with a 37.5% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at point guard. His leverage of 9.8 makes him a play to let Build & Sim size.
James Harden (DK $7,100)
James Harden carries a 6.8-assist props line into the Cavaliers' season opener against the 76ers, with 34 projected minutes. He is 33.6% owned with a 36.4% optimal rate.
Tyrese Maxey (DK $8,000)
Tyrese Maxey projects for 35 minutes against the Cavaliers, and his props line sits at 22.8 points and 5.3 assists. His 40.0 Hero Projection is second at point guard, and the crowd builds around him.
Shooting Guard
Jaylon Tyson (DK $3,600)
Jaylon Tyson gets 25 projected minutes in a Cavaliers–76ers game with a 237.1 total. His props line sits at 9.5 points, and his 5.27 value is the best at shooting guard.
The field is on Tyson, and the simulations land on him more often. He is 36.1% owned with a 42.6% optimal rate and a leverage of 6.5.
Small Forward
Peyton Watson (DK $4,700)
Peyton Watson starts on the Cavaliers' wing against the 76ers and projects for 29 minutes. His props line sits at 13 points and 4.4 rebounds.
The field and the simulations agree on Watson. He is 41.5% owned with a 43.5% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at small forward, and his value sits at 5.33.
Jalen Williams (DK $6,400)
Jalen Williams logged 30 minutes against the Spurs on October 20 and scored 28.3 DK points, and he projects for 30 against the Nuggets. His props line sits at 18.5 points, and he is one of the slate's most popular plays.
Cameron Johnson (DK $4,500)
Cameron Johnson starts for the Nuggets against the Thunder with 30 projected minutes and a props line of 13.7 points. His 5.59 value is the best at small forward, and his optimal rate sits at 35.7%.
Power Forward
LeBron James (DK $7,000)
LeBron James scored 39.3 DK points in 34 minutes against the Knicks on October 20, and he projects for 32 against the Cavaliers. His props line asks for 7.3 assists.
James also slid to center for part of the October 20 game once Joel Embiid (DK $7,700) reached three fouls before halftime. His 38.4 Hero Projection is the best at power forward, with a 50.2% optimal rate, and the field lines up behind him.
Chet Holmgren (DK $5,800)
Chet Holmgren blocked four shots against the Spurs on October 20 for 33.3 DK points, and he projects for 30 minutes against the Nuggets. His props line sits at 1.8 blocks, and he is a play the field leans on.
Aaron Gordon (DK $5,500)
The field leaves Aaron Gordon at 20.8% ownership against the Thunder, with a 31.4% optimal rate. He starts for the Nuggets with 30 projected minutes and a props line of 14.3 points, and his leverage is the best at power forward.
Center
Joel Embiid (DK $7,700)
Joel Embiid scored 46.3 DK points in 33 minutes against the Knicks on October 20, and he projects for 32 against the Cavaliers. His props line sits at 22.4 points.
Embiid and Isaiah Hartenstein (DK $4,800) post the two best values at center, 5.51 and 5.46. Embiid pairs that with a 37.2% optimal rate, the top optimal rate at the position, and the field builds around him.
Nikola Jokic (DK $10,900)
Nikola Jokic plays the Nuggets' season opener against the Thunder with 35 projected minutes and props lines of 12.2 rebounds and 8.9 assists. His 58.1 Hero Projection is the best at center, and the crowd pays up for him.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around the two centers: Nikola Jokic (DK $10,900) is its top spend, Joel Embiid (DK $7,700) is its chalk, and the market is split on whether to pay up for Jokic or stay in the midrange. DFS Hero has Jokic at a 35.9% optimal rate and Embiid at a 37.2% optimal rate. The news the market keys on is Jarrett Allen (DK $6,300), whom it reports at shootaround with a knee issue, and the market watches what his status means for Jaylon Tyson (DK $3,600). DFS Hero has Tyson at a 42.6% optimal rate. The market calls Aaron Gordon (DK $5,500) its go-to value forward, and DFS Hero backs that with a 31.4% optimal rate against his 20.8% ownership, while a minority of the market looks to Anfernee Simons (DK $3,500), who carries a leverage of 6.3.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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