Hawks–Bulls carries the slate. The Hawks' 126.5 implied points are the highest on the board, the Bulls add 119.5, and the game total sits at 246.0. Grizzlies–Pelicans follows at 237.5 with the Grizzlies at 120.0, and Cavaliers–Heat sits at 235.5 with the Heat favored by 2.5. All six games are NBA Cup group play. The slate locks at 7:00 PM ET Friday, when Knicks–Pacers and Bucks–Magic tip. Three games start at 8:00 PM ET and Jazz–Rockets at 8:30 PM ET.
Three spreads run wide. The Rockets are 16-point favorites over the Jazz, whose 102.3 implied points are the lowest on the slate. The Magic lay 9.5 to the Bucks, and the Knicks lay 8.5 to the Pacers. Evan Mobley and Sam Merrill are out for the Cavaliers, Zach Edey for the Grizzlies, Caleb Wilson for the Bulls, Marcus Smart for the Rockets, Tyrese Haliburton for the Pacers and Paolo Banchero for the Magic. Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,500) is probable for the Heat, and Norman Powell (DK $6,000) is questionable for the Bulls.
Injury Watch
- Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers, out)
- Caleb Wilson (Bulls, out)
- Evan Mobley (Cavaliers, out)
- Zach Edey (Grizzlies, out)
- Marcus Smart (Rockets, out)
- Sam Merrill (Cavaliers, out)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,500) (Heat, probable)
- Norman Powell (DK $6,000) (Bulls, questionable)
Point Guard
Dyson Daniels (DK $6,600)
Daniels has a 43.1 DK average over his last three games, and he gets the Bulls tonight. The Hawks carry 126.5 implied points, the highest on the slate. He plays 32 projected minutes in that offense.
His steals line sits at 2.3 and his assists line at 5.8, with a 5.62 value at the price. He is the crowd's guard of choice. His 20.0% optimal rate is the top mark at point guard.
James Harden (DK $7,000)
Evan Mobley is out, and Harden runs the Cavaliers' offense against the Heat, with a 13.5% optimal rate. He scored 46.0 against the Knicks on November 11, with a 29.9 average over his last three. The books set his assists at 6.1.
Amen Thompson (DK $6,900)
Thompson faces the Jazz, whose implied total is the lowest on the slate, with Marcus Smart out of the Rockets' backcourt and a 12.6% optimal rate. He has a 33.5 DK average over his last three. The books set his rebounds at 7, and he plays 33 projected minutes.
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell (DK $8,100)
Mitchell carries a 27.9% usage rate into a 235.5-total game against the Heat, with Sam Merrill out. He scored 45.8 against the Knicks on November 11 and holds a 40.6 average over his last three.
Sportsbooks hang 25.1 points on him. His 44.2 projection tops the shooting guards, with a 63.8 ceiling and a 19.6% optimal rate. Much of the field lands on him as well.
Cedric Coward (DK $5,900)
Zach Edey is out, and his absence opens minutes for Coward, who carries a 13.3% optimal rate. He projects for 29 against the Pelicans, more than he played in each of his last three games. He scored 36.3 against the Nuggets on November 11, and the books set his rebounds at 6.7.
Norman Powell (DK $6,000)
Caleb Wilson is out, and Powell is the Bulls' scorer to own against the Hawks, with a 20.5-point line and a 12.6% optimal rate. The game total sits at 246.0. He is questionable with a shoulder injury and Hawks–Bulls tips at 8:00 PM ET, an hour after lock, so he is a late-swap check.
Small Forward
Matas Buzelis (DK $5,800)
Buzelis plays in Hawks–Bulls, and the Bulls' 119.5 implied points rank third on the slate. He has a 24.9 DK average over his last three, above his 23.3 season mark. He projects for 29 minutes.
The books set his points at 18 and his threes at 2.2, behind a 22.1% usage rate. His 16.4% optimal rate ranks second at small forward.
Kevin Durant (DK $7,600)
The Rockets are 16-point favorites over the Jazz, and Durant carries a 13.1% optimal rate in that game. He plays 35 projected minutes. The books set his points at 21.4.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (DK $4,200)
With Tyrese Haliburton out, Oubre projects to start for the Pacers against the Knicks with an 11.7% optimal rate. He scored 33.0 against the Wizards on November 11, with a 19.8 average over his last three. His steals line sits at 1.1.
Power Forward
Jalen Johnson (DK $9,300)
The Hawks carry 126.5 implied points against the Bulls, the most on the slate, and Johnson plays 35 projected minutes in that offense. He scored 48.3 against the Nets on November 7, then 31.8 against the Lakers on November 9.
Books set him at 21.7 points and 6.8 assists. His 24.0% optimal rate is the top mark at power forward, beside a 52.2 projection and a 73.5 ceiling. The field leans on him hard.
Isaiah Stewart (DK $3,900)
Stewart is a projected starter for the Grizzlies against the Pelicans, with 28 minutes, a 6.41 value that tops the power forwards and a 20.6% optimal rate. The books set his points at 11.4. He carried a questionable tag for a knee injury on November 10, and Grizzlies–Pelicans tips at 8:00 PM ET, after lock, so he is a late-swap check.
Karl-Anthony Towns (DK $8,800)
Towns is in form for the Knicks against the Pacers, with a 53.0 DK average over his last three. The books set his rebounds at 12.3, behind a 25.9% usage rate. His 18.8% optimal rate ranks third at power forward.
Center
Jarrett Allen (DK $5,700)
Allen anchors the Cavaliers' frontcourt against the Heat in a 235.5-total game, with 29 projected minutes. He posted 38.5 against the Knicks on November 11, with 14 rebounds.
His rebounds line sits at 8.8 and his points line at 14.1. His 19.5% optimal rate ranks second at center, with a 5.92 value.
Alperen Sengun (DK $9,400)
Sengun gets the Jazz with 36 projected minutes and a 16.4% optimal rate. The books set his assists at 6.5. He posted 53.8 against the Warriors on November 11.
Onyeka Okongwu (DK $6,500)
Okongwu starts at center for the Hawks against the Bulls, with a 37.8 DK average over his last three and a 16.3% optimal rate. He plays 31 projected minutes, and his 5.62 value ranks third at center. He left a game against the Nets early after an elbow to the face, and Hawks–Bulls tips after lock, so he is a late-swap check.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around the Magic against the Bucks, keyed on Franz Wagner (DK $9,500) and the four straight games above 50 DraftKings points it reports for him. It calls Hawks–Bulls the top game environment, with Jalen Johnson (DK $9,300) as its chalk there. It treats Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,500) and Alperen Sengun (DK $9,400) as its default studs and Kelly Oubre Jr. (DK $4,200) as its value. A contrarian view reaches for Meleek Thomas (DK $4,500), Bam Adebayo (DK $8,300) and Ivica Zubac (DK $6,200). The market is split on Johnson's ceiling and on whether Jazz–Rockets plays as an over or a blowout.
DFS Hero has Jalen Johnson (DK $9,300) at a 24.0% optimal rate, the top mark at power forward. DFS Hero has Alperen Sengun (DK $9,400) at a 16.4% optimal rate. Franz Wagner (DK $9,500) carries a 9.5% optimal rate, a step above his 8.6% ownership, and Bam Adebayo (DK $8,300) carries a leverage of 3.1, a DFS Hero number in line with that contrarian view.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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