The Timberwolves carry the highest implied total on the slate at 125.3 against the Bulls, and the Nuggets sit second at 123.5 against the Pelicans. Both favorites lay big numbers: 15.5 for the Timberwolves, who are 9-3 against the Bulls' 2-9, and 12.5 for the Nuggets. Five games lock at 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, and Nuggets–Pelicans tips at lock. The Pistons' 117.0 implied total is third highest, with the Pistons favored by 5 over the Heat. The Mavericks are 2-point favorites over the Cavaliers in a 231.6 total, and the Grizzlies are favored by 3.5 over the Nets.
The injury news reshapes four rotations. The Pelicans are without Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III, and that opens minutes for Jeremiah Fears (DK $7,000). Anthony Edwards is out for the Timberwolves, Jalen Duren is out for the Pistons, Sam Merrill is out for the Cavaliers, and Caleb Wilson is out for the Bulls. Evan Mobley (DK $7,500), Jalen Smith (DK $5,800) and Klay Thompson (DK $5,400) are questionable with games that tip after lock, so all three are late-swap checks.
Injury Watch
- Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves, out)
- Caleb Wilson (Bulls, out)
- Dejounte Murray (Pelicans, out)
- Trey Murphy III (Pelicans, out)
- Jalen Duren (Pistons, out)
- Sam Merrill (Cavaliers, out)
- Evan Mobley (DK $7,500) (Cavaliers, questionable)
- Jalen Smith (DK $5,800) (Bulls, questionable)
Point Guard
Cade Cunningham (DK $9,800)
Cunningham runs the Pistons' offense against the Heat, and Jalen Duren is out. He projects for 33 minutes at a 30.2% usage rate. His props sit at 24.4 points and 8.7 assists.
He scored 81.8 DraftKings points against the Wizards on November 12, and his last-three average is 49.5. His 50.8 Hero Projection leads all point guards, with a 23.5% optimal rate behind it.
Jeremiah Fears (DK $7,000)
Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III are out, and that opens minutes for Fears against the Nuggets: he projects for 35 with a 16.4% optimal rate. He posted 39.8 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on November 13, and his points prop sits at 18.1. His 5.07 value ranks second at point guard.
Jamal Murray (DK $8,500)
The Nuggets carry a 123.5 implied total against the Pelicans, and Murray runs their backcourt at a 26.4% usage rate and a 16.4% optimal rate. He scored 52.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on November 11. His points prop sits at 23.4, with the Nuggets favored by double digits.
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell (DK $8,100)
Mitchell drives the Cavaliers' offense against the Mavericks, with Sam Merrill out and the Mavericks favored by just 2. He projects for 33 minutes at a 28.4% usage rate. His points prop sits at 24.
He scored 41.5 DraftKings points against the Heat on November 13, and his last-three average is 36.4. His 40.4 Hero Projection tops the shooting guards, and his optimal rate is 16.4%.
Cameron Johnson (DK $4,600)
Johnson starts on the wing for a Nuggets team favored by 12.5 over the Pelicans, with a 15.2% optimal rate. He scored 36.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on November 11, and his last-three average is 26.5. His 5.17 value is the best at shooting guard, and the field has found it.
Daniss Jenkins (DK $5,700)
Jenkins moved into the Pistons' starting lineup against the Wizards on November 9, and he projects for 32 minutes against the Heat with a 14.3% optimal rate. His last-three average is 44.1, with 34.0 DraftKings points against the Wizards on November 12 as the newest game. His points prop sits at 14.6.
Small Forward
Saddiq Bey (DK $6,100)
Bey started for the Pelicans on November 13 and projects for 31 minutes against the Nuggets at a 22.2% usage rate. His props sit at 17.4 points and 2.3 threes.
His newest game, against the Grizzlies on November 13, brought 49.0 DraftKings points, and his last-three average is 28.4. His 21.1% optimal rate leads the small forwards, and he is a crowd favorite at a 5.48 value.
Matas Buzelis (DK $5,900)
Caleb Wilson is out, and Buzelis starts at forward for the Bulls against the Timberwolves with a 21.5% usage rate and a 13.7% optimal rate. He scored 30.0 DraftKings points against the Hawks on November 13. His props sit at 16.2 points and 2.1 threes.
Norman Powell (DK $6,000)
Powell was cleared from a shoulder issue with no minutes limit on November 13 and scored 44.8 DraftKings points against the Hawks; his last-three average is 28.3, and his optimal rate is 13.5%. He faces the Timberwolves with a 26.7% usage rate. His points prop sits at 21.2.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,500)
Antetokounmpo carries the Heat against the Pistons with a 34.1% usage rate over 34 projected minutes. His props sit at 27.3 points and 11.6 rebounds.
He was cleared from a wrist issue for the Cavaliers game on November 13 and scored 51.8 DraftKings points; his last-three average is 53.7. His 77.0 ceiling is the top mark at power forward, with a 14.5% optimal rate.
Jaden McDaniels (DK $7,000)
Anthony Edwards is out, and McDaniels starts for a Timberwolves team with the highest implied total on the slate, 125.3, against the Bulls, carrying a 12.7% optimal rate. He projects for 33 minutes and scored 32.3 DraftKings points against the Mavericks on November 12. His points prop sits at 17.5.
Cameron Boozer (DK $8,000)
Boozer starts for the Grizzlies, 3.5-point favorites over the Nets, at a 24.4% usage rate and a 12.2% optimal rate. His props sit at 17.2 points and 8.9 rebounds, and his last-three average is 38.5.
Center
Nikola Jokic (DK $11,700)
Jokic draws the Pelicans with the Nuggets favored by 12.5, and his 25.5% optimal rate leads all centers. His props sit at 26 points, 11.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists.
His last five games bottom out at 52.8 DraftKings points, with 58.3 against the Grizzlies on November 11 the newest. His 62.2 Hero Projection leads every center over 35 projected minutes, and the crowd builds around him.
Jarrett Allen (DK $5,600)
The Mavericks are without Dereck Lively II, and Allen starts at center for the Cavaliers against them with a 17.4% optimal rate. He projects for 29 minutes with props at 13.8 points and 8.8 rebounds. His 5.50 value is the best at center.
Rudy Gobert (DK $6,100)
Gobert anchors the paint for the Timberwolves, 15.5-point favorites over the Bulls, and his rebounds prop sits at 10.3. He is 14.3% owned with a 15.6% optimal rate, an exposure to let Build & Sim size.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Nikola Jokic (DK $11,700), with Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,500) as the other default stud and Daniss Jenkins (DK $5,700) as the go-to cheap guard. It splits on Jokic's form, on how much blowout risk to take with two spreads of 12 points or more, and on Bulls–Timberwolves, where some back the under and others the Timberwolves' team total over. A minority of the market backs Josh Giddey (DK $7,700), Paul Reed (DK $6,200) and Jeremiah Fears (DK $7,000), and the market keys on the Pelicans, Heat, Cavaliers, Grizzlies and Bulls playing the second night of back-to-backs. DFS Hero has Jokic at a 25.5% optimal rate. Antetokounmpo sits at a 14.5% optimal rate and Jenkins at 14.3%.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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