FREE 09/04 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

The wait is finally over, my friend! NFL football is officially back, and we’re kicking things off with a fantastic NFC East showdown slate between the Eagles and the Cowboys. With a healthy 47.5 total, this game has all the makings of a DFS goldmine, especially considering it’s the first taste of regular season action. We’ve got two explosive offenses squaring off, meaning plenty of fantasy goodness to go around. The biggest wild card here is the weather, with a 32% chance of precipitation and 10 mph S winds. While 32% isn’t a downpour guarantee, any rain or sustained wind could impact passing games and potentially lead to more run-heavy approaches, so keep an eye on those pre-game reports.

From a DFS perspective, this game offers a ton of intriguing storylines. We’ll get our first look at how these teams utilize their new weapons and how established stars fit into the updated schemes. The potential for a high-scoring affair means we’ll be looking for players who can rack up big fantasy points quickly. The weather risk, while not extreme, does add a layer of complexity; if it does start to rain, we might see a slight shift in optimal lineups towards reliable ground-game options. It’s the first game, so everyone is a bit of an unknown, which makes lineup construction even more fun and potentially profitable. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for Thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Jalen Hurts ($16,500)

Jalen Hurts faces a high-total matchup against the Cowboys, and his dual-threat ability consistently delivers elite fantasy production. He projects for a massive 36.12 DK points, offering an exceptional 2.19x value at his captain salary, which leverages his 1.5x multiplier in a game expected to feature plenty of scoring. His moderate 5.7% captain ownership provides significant leverage, especially when considering his 40.3% optimal lineup rate, positioning him as a standout choice to anchor winning lineups.

Honorable Mention

• Dak Prescott ($13,500)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Saquon Barkley ($11,200)

Saquon Barkley faces a Cowboys defense he historically dominates, and his elite workload in Philadelphia’s high-powered offense sets him up for a massive performance. He handles an every-down role, and the Eagles’ implied total of 24.5 points against a division rival suggests multiple scoring opportunities for their primary red zone threat.

Barkley’s dual-threat ability creates an incredibly high floor, and his usage in the passing game provides a safe avenue to fantasy production. His heavy involvement in the Eagles’ game plan makes him a cornerstone play, especially against a Dallas front that has shown vulnerabilities against the run.

2. A.J. Brown ($9,400)

A.J. Brown enters Week 1 fully healthy and ready to resume his dominant role in the Eagles’ passing game. He finished last season with 1,079 yards and 7 touchdowns in just 13 games, demonstrating his elite playmaking ability and high ceiling whenever he’s on the field. Tonight’s matchup against the Cowboys presents an excellent opportunity for Brown to start the season strong, especially given his proven chemistry with Jalen Hurts and his consistent target share within the Philadelphia offense.

Brown projects as a top play with a 42.3% optimal lineup percentage, reflecting his high upside at his $9400 salary. His 1.81x value indicates he’s poised to exceed expectations, and the Eagles’ offensive scheme consistently funnels targets to their top wideouts, ensuring Brown will see significant volume against a divisional rival. He remains the clear alpha in this offense, making him a cornerstone for DFS lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• KaVontae Turpin ($2,800)

Bargain Bin

Will Shipley ($2,000)

Will Shipley started Thursday’s preseason game against the Bengals, taking seven carries for 48 yards and one catch for four yards, and his strong performance positions him for the No. 2 RB role in Philadelphia. His 38-yard carry on the first drive showcased his explosive ability, and at a minimum salary of $2000, he provides significant roster flexibility. Shipley’s 21.73% optimal lineup percentage highlights his potential as a critical value play.

Shipley faces the Cowboys in a matchup where he could see extended playing time, and his early usage in the preseason opener suggests a clear path to touches. His current 4.4% projected ownership offers leverage in tournaments, and his 1.55x value projection at such a low salary makes him an essential piece for building a high-upside DFS lineup.

Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!