FREE 02/09 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top Super Bowl LIX DFS Plays

Sunday night brings us a high-stakes rematch of Super Bowl LVII as the Eagles take on the Chiefs. With a tight 1-point spread and a 49-point total, we’re looking at a game environment that should feature plenty of offensive firepower and back-and-forth action. The Chiefs have proven themselves in these big moments, winning back-to-back championships, but the Eagles are hungry to avenge their Super Bowl loss and derail Kansas City’s three-peat hopes. For DFS purposes, this setup gives us a concentrated pool of elite players on both sides, making roster construction all about finding the right mix of studs and value.

Key storylines revolve around the QB duel between Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes—both capable of putting up massive fantasy numbers with their arms and legs. With both teams featuring aggressive play-callers and efficient red-zone offenses, touchdowns should come from predictable sources, but finding low-owned value plays like secondary receivers or complementary running backs will be crucial to taking down tournaments. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for Sunday!

Top Captain Plays

Patrick Mahomes ($15,000)

Patrick Mahomes ($15,000) makes a strong captain play due to his elite ceiling potential and game script fit as the focal point of Kansas City’s offense. With a 32.28 DK point projection, 2.15x value, and a slate-leading 25.3% optimal captain rate, Mahomes offers both high upside and consistency in a showdown format. His dual-threat ability (245 passing yards, 2 rushing TDs in the AFC Championship) enhances his ceiling, particularly in competitive games like this Super Bowl matchup against Philadelphia. The Chiefs’ reliance on Mahomes to generate offense aligns perfectly with game scripts that demand scoring efficiency, whether through the air or on the ground. Additionally, his moderate CPT ownership (15.4%) compared to his optimal rate creates leverage opportunities for those willing to pay up for him as captain, especially if others gravitate toward lower-salary skill players to diversify builds. This combination of ceiling, role, and leverage makes him an optimal high-upside tournament play at captain.

Honorable Mention

• Jalen Hurts ($15,600)

Top UTIL Plays

Dallas Goedert ($5,800)

Dallas Goedert ($5,800) projects as one of the stronger tight end plays on this slate, with a 54.5% optimal lineup rate that reflects his importance in DFS builds. Facing the Chiefs in what should be a competitive Super Bowl matchup, Goedert’s role as a key target for Jalen Hurts gives him both a solid floor and intriguing ceiling. Kansas City’s defense has been middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, but Goedert’s involvement in the Eagles’ offense—particularly in high-leverage situations like third downs and the red zone—makes him stand out at a position often lacking consistent options.

The main concern here is ownership, as Goedert is projected to be rostered by 34.8% of the field, making him one of the chalkier plays at tight end. While this level of popularity can limit his utility in tournaments, it’s justified given his salary and role within an elite offense. If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup, pivoting off Goedert could make sense, but fading him entirely carries risk given his high optimal rate and potential to outperform other TE options. In cash games, he’s hard to avoid given his combination of price, projection, and involvement.

Xavier Worthy ($8,000)

Xavier Worthy ($8,000) projects as one of the most popular plays on the slate, and for good reason. His 50.9% optimal lineup rate underscores how valuable he is in this spot, even at elevated ownership (38.1%). Coming off a strong AFC Championship performance where he totaled 101 yards and a touchdown, Worthy has firmly established himself as Patrick Mahomes’ go-to option in high-leverage situations. Facing Philadelphia in the Super Bowl, Worthy benefits from a game environment with elite offensive potential on both sides. While Philly’s defense is formidable, their secondary has been vulnerable to top-tier wideouts at times, ranking middle of the pack in pass yards allowed per game.

At $8,000, Worthy isn’t cheap and carries a modest value rating (2.02x), but his dual-threat usage gives him multiple paths to production. Kansas City’s willingness to get him involved as both a receiver and occasional rusher raises his ceiling in what could be a back-and-forth contest. The high ownership makes him chalky, but it feels justified given his role in this offense and the likelihood of heavy volume in a must-win game. In cash games or smaller-field tournaments, he’s tough to fade due to his secure floor and ceiling combo. For large-field GPPs, however, pivoting away from such concentrated ownership could be worth exploring if you’re looking for leverage.

Honorable Mentions

• A.J. Brown ($9,600)
• Travis Kelce ($9,000)

Bargain Bin

Samaje Perine ($1,200)

At just $1,200, Samaje Perine offers intriguing value as a punt play in large-field tournaments. While his role in Kansas City’s offense has been minimal, his 32.5% optimal lineup rate stands out at this salary, making him a viable option for those looking to save cap space. The matchup against Philadelphia isn’t ideal for running backs, but Perine’s ability to contribute in the passing game could lead to a few high-leverage touches if the Chiefs fall behind or rotate personnel. His 3.13-point projection doesn’t jump off the page, but at this price, you’re banking on him exceeding expectations with limited opportunities.

Perine’s projected ownership of 11.4% is slightly below field average, which makes him an interesting leverage play in large GPPs. While the ceiling is capped due to his limited role behind Kansas City’s primary backs, his involvement on passing downs and occasional red zone usage give him paths to hit value. If you’re building lineups around expensive studs and need a low-cost dart throw with some upside, Perine fits that mold well without being overly chalky. Just know that he carries significant risk with such a small workload floor.

Honorable Mention

• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,000)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!