FREE 10/30 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

Get ready for a Thursday night showdown that promises fireworks between the Dolphins and the Ravens. With a juicy 51.0 total, this game has all the makings of a DFS bonanza. Baltimore, after a rollercoaster start to the season, finally gets Lamar Jackson back. He’s facing a Miami defense that’s been generous on both the ground and through the air, giving up 5.0 yards per carry and a league-high 73.7% completion percentage. This isn’t just a good matchup for Jackson; it’s a prime setup for a massive fantasy performance. Don’t sleep on the Dolphins’ offense either, as the Ravens’ defense has also been leaky, allowing 14 passing touchdowns and a 4.5 YPC. This game screams offensive upside, and we should be chasing those high-scoring plays. Weather doesn’t appear to be a concern tonight; focus on matchup and usage.

The key storyline for DFS tonight revolves around the return of Lamar Jackson and the potential for both offenses to explode. Baltimore’s season has been a strange one, losing four straight with an injured Jackson, but a win last week with Huntley and now their star QB back against a porous defense could be the spark they need. For DFS purposes, this means a high-ceiling Jackson is firmly in play, as are his pass-catchers. On the other side, Miami will look to exploit a Ravens defense that has struggled to generate pressure and stop the run. It’s a classic “unstoppable force meets immovable object” scenario, except both forces are looking pretty stoppable. This creates a fantastic environment for stacking and targeting volume.

Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for Thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Lamar Jackson ($17,700)

Lamar Jackson returns to action fully healthy and immediately steps into a high-leverage captain spot, projecting for a massive 34.99 DK points against Miami. His dual-threat ability provides a massive ceiling, especially with a 1.98x value that maximizes his scoring potential when Baltimore controls the game flow. Jackson’s moderate 14.8% ownership for a captain pick with his optimal percentage approaching 35% offers a clear path to leverage, as he consistently delivers monster fantasy performances, making him an elite choice to anchor your lineup.

Honorable Mention

• De’Von Achane ($17,100)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Malik Washington ($4,800)

Malik Washington delivers exceptional value at his $4,800 salary, boasting an optimal lineup percentage of 53.7% and a 2.16x value projection. His recent performance shows a clear upward trend, averaging 10.8 DK points per game in his last two outings compared to 8.0 over the last four, highlighted by a touchdown and four receptions in the recent win against the Falcons. With Tyreek Hill sidelined and Darren Waller on IR, Washington has stepped into an expanded role, securing four of five targets for 36 yards and a score in a 34-10 victory.

Washington operates as a top-three target for Tua Tagovailoa, capitalizing on the absence of other key pass-catchers. He secured five of eight targets for 30 yards in the Week 7 loss, demonstrating consistent involvement in the Dolphins’ passing scheme. This increased target share, combined with his low salary, makes him a compelling play, especially given the enhanced weather conditions with a comfortable 72.9°F and mild wind, creating an optimal environment for passing.

2. Zay Flowers ($9,400)

Zay Flowers continues his consistent production for the Baltimore Ravens, averaging 14.2 DK points per game this season and projected for a robust 17.4 points in this matchup against the Dolphins. He led the Ravens in receptions, targets, and receiving yards in their recent 30-16 victory over the Bears, catching seven of nine targets for 63 yards. Flowers has reached seven receptions in four of his seven games this season, showcasing his central role in the Ravens’ offense.

Flowers faces a Miami defense that will contend with his established volume and big-play potential, with his TD odds at 125 and a receiving yards prop of 69.5. Even with a high salary of $9,400, his consistent target share and optimal lineup percentage of 50.6% reflect his reliability as a top-tier fantasy option. Regardless of whether Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center, Flowers remains a critical component of the Ravens’ game plan in this Week 9 matchup.

Honorable Mentions

• Isaiah Likely ($2,000)

Bargain Bin

Justice Hill ($3,600)

Justice Hill projects as an outstanding value play at just $3600, offering significant leverage with an optimal lineup percentage of 29.33%. His role in the Ravens’ offense, even with recent fluctuations, keeps him in a position to exceed his modest projection, especially given his touchdown odds of +450 and a reception line of 2.5, indicating pass-catching upside. Tonight’s game against the Dolphins, with mild weather conditions, sets up a potential scenario where Hill’s specific skills could be utilized.

Hill’s low salary allows for significant roster flexibility, and his moderate ownership of 16.26% provides a solid foundation for GPP builds. Even with a recent dip in usage, his prior performance of 3.9 DK points per game over the last four games demonstrates his ability to produce. His 16.5 receiving yards prop line suggests he remains a part of the passing game, and any increase in targets or red zone opportunities makes him a high-upside play at this price point.

Honorable Mention

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,200)

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