FREE 11/02 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 9’s 11-game slate gives us plenty of options for DFS lineups, with a mix of high totals and favorable conditions across the board. The Bears-Bengals matchup leads the way at 51 points, followed closely by Chiefs-Bills and Colts-Steelers. These could be prime spots for game stacks if the offenses click. Domes in Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles mean no weather worries there, letting you focus on player matchups without much variance.

Outdoors, conditions look mostly clean, though keep an eye on the Chargers-Titans game with 19% rain chance that might cap the low 43.5 total. Big spreads like Saints-Rams at -14 and Panthers-Packers at -13 open up value on the underdogs’ defenses or pass catchers, while the 49ers-Giants tilt at 48.5 total offers solid exposure to San Francisco’s run game in decent 59-degree weather.

Top Stacks

CIN vs CHI ($18,600)

Players: Joe Flacco, Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Monangai

The CIN-CHI stack with Joe Flacco, Ja’Marr Chase, and Kyle Monangai as the Bears bring-back projects 59.7 points with 18.1% ownership, 17.6% optimal rate, and 23.8% boom rate, offering 3.21 pts/$1K value. Flacco and Chase exhibit strong correlation, with Chase commanding elite volume from Flacco, including 19 targets for 12 catches and 91 yards in Week 8 and a franchise-record 23 targets for 16 receptions, 161 yards, and a touchdown in Week 7, though Flacco’s questionable shoulder status risks Jake Browning starting and potentially lowering efficiency. Monangai’s bring-back upside surges in favorable game scripts, as he’s set to lead Chicago’s backfield with D’Andre Swift out (groin), boasting 4.4 yards per carry as a rookie and facing the Bengals’ league-worst run defense (151.9 yards allowed per game), where a Bears lead could boost his touches beyond last week’s 7 rushes for 24 yards and 1 reception for 25 yards.

NYG vs SF ($19,100)

Players: Jaxson Dart, Wan’Dale Robinson, Christian McCaffrey

The NYG-SF stack projects 61.1 points with 20.3% ownership, 16.9% optimal rate, and 24.4% boom rate, offering 3.20 pts/$1K value. Dart and Robinson show strong teammate correlation, with Dart distributing 12 targets to Robinson in Week 7 for 95 yards while adding his own 283 passing yards and a rushing TD, and in Week 8, Robinson led the team with 48 receiving yards on four targets amid Dart’s 193 passing yards and another rushing score, bolstering their shared upside against SF’s secondary despite NYG’s injuries. As an SF bring-back, McCaffrey’s Week 8 dip to 25 rushing yards and 43 receiving yards on 11 touches was an outlier in a tough Texans matchup, but his Week 7 explosion of 129 rushing yards, two TDs, and 72 receiving yards on 32 touches positions him for high-volume rebound if SF dictates a positive game script versus NYG’s vulnerable run defense.

CHI vs CIN ($20,700)

Players: Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Ja’Marr Chase

The CHI-CIN stack projects 59.8 points with 15.7% ownership, 13.2% optimal rate, and 18.4% boom rate, offering 2.89 pts/$1K value. Williams and Odunze exhibit strong teammate correlation as a QB-WR duo, with Williams attempting 38 passes for 285 yards in Week 8 despite no TDs and facing a vulnerable Bengals defense that allowed a late collapse to the Jets; Odunze, fully healthy with no injury designation, stands to benefit from increased targets with RB D’Andre Swift and WR Luther Burden out, potentially boosting Williams’ output after his 172-yard, zero-TD Week 7. As a CIN bring-back, Chase offers upside from a favorable game script if the Bengals trail and air it out at home, evidenced by his 19 targets for 91 yards in Week 8 and franchise-record 23 targets for 161 yards and a TD in Week 7, capitalizing on heavy volume from Joe Flacco against a Bears secondary that has limited Williams’ recent efficiency.

QB Plays

Jaxson Dart ($5,200)

Jaxson Dart continues to blend passing efficiency with rushing upside, averaging 16.7 DK points per game this season while scoring a rushing touchdown in four of his first five starts. In Week 8, he threw for 193 yards and a score before adding a late two-yard run against the Eagles, showcasing his dual-threat ability even with a depleted supporting cast. His props reflect this potential, with 209.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing yards on the line, positioning him as a high-value QB at just $5,200 salary for a 3.84x value projection.

Dart faces the 49ers in a game with a 48.5 total and -2.5 spread favoring San Francisco, yet his 20.0 projected points and 22.2% boom rate make him a tournament standout despite 15.3% ownership. The Giants’ run-heavy tendency at -2.5% PROE keeps defenses honest, opening lanes for his mobility in mild weather with 5.8 mph winds. As the seventh-ranked GPP option, Dart delivers consistent fantasy relevance through his rookie poise and scrambling instincts.

Honorable Mentions

• Caleb Williams ($5,700)
• Patrick Mahomes ($7,100)

RB Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($8,800)

Christian McCaffrey faces a Giants defense vulnerable to the run, where he projects for 26.5 points and a 34.0% boom rate at $8,800 salary. After a modest Week 8 with eight carries for 25 yards and three catches for 43, his prior dominance shines through, including a 129-yard, two-touchdown rushing performance against Atlanta in Week 7. The 49ers’ game script favors heavy ground usage against New York’s middling front, with McCaffrey’s props at 77.5 rushing yards, 51.5 receiving yards, and 5.5 receptions underscoring his all-purpose workload.

McCaffrey has averaged 25.4 DK points per game this season, establishing him as the premier RB option with 3.01x value and 26.1% optimal lineup rate. Playing on the road in a 48.5 total game with favorable 58.9°F temperatures and light 5.8 mph winds, he exploits the Giants’ slow pace and depleted secondary. His 29.6% projected ownership aligns with tournament rank 13, but his efficiency in Shanahan’s scheme ensures elite ceiling in this bounce-back spot.

Honorable Mentions

• Kyle Monangai ($4,600)
• Kyren Williams ($6,800)

WR Plays

Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400)

Ja’Marr Chase delivers elite target volume in a pass-heavy Bengals offense ranking +3.7% in PROE, securing 12 of 19 targets for 91 yards in Week 8 despite a late collapse against the Jets. He follows that with 16 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown on 23 targets the prior week, cementing his role as Joe Burrow’s primary weapon. At $8,400, his 2.93x value and 24.6 projected points highlight underpricing for a receiver averaging 21.8 DK points per game.

Chase operates against a Bears defense with -4.1% opponent PROE and run-heavy tendencies, creating exploitable mismatches in a 51.0 total game. His props—93.5 receiving yards, 8.5 receptions, and -125 TD odds—align with 30.9% boom rate and 25.3% optimal percentage, even at 27.4% ownership. Mild 54.9°F weather with 4.7 mph winds favors deep shots, positioning him as the top WR for tournament upside in Cincinnati’s high-scoring environment.

Honorable Mentions

• Puka Nacua ($8,500)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300)

TE Plays

Brock Bowers ($5,000)

Brock Bowers has averaged strong production in limited action, compiling 19 receptions for 225 yards on 27 targets across four games before his knee injury sidelined him. Now fully practicing and declaring himself “ready to roll” after the bye, he returns to a Raiders lineup needing his pass-catching prowess against the Jaguars. At $5,000 salary, his 2.81x value and 14.0 projected points make him the premier TE option, especially with 5.5 reception and 56.5 yard props reflecting his rookie-year dominance of 112 catches.

Bowers operates in a domed stadium matchup with a 44.0 total and -2.5 spread, where the Jaguars’ +3.2% pass-heavy opponent PROE boosts his involvement despite Las Vegas’ -3.6% run tendency. His 14.3% boom rate and 12.0% optimal lineup share come at moderate 7.4% ownership, ranking him first in GPP tournaments. Fully cleared under coach Pete Carroll’s guidance, Bowers slots back as the focal point in the passing game for immediate impact.

Honorable Mentions

• Tucker Kraft ($5,700)
• George Kittle ($4,800)

Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!