FREE 11/16 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got an 11-game slate today, which gives plenty of options for building DFS lineups without feeling too spread out. Several games carry high totals that could lead to solid stacking opportunities, like the Bears-Vikings at 48, Bengals-Steelers at 48.5, and both the 49ers-Cardinals and Seahawks-Rams at 48.5. Those indoor or low-wind spots in domes should keep the offenses humming without weather interference.

On the flip side, keep an eye on the windy conditions in games like Buccaneers-Bills (21 mph winds) and Packers-Giants (20 mph), where passing games might take a hit and open up value in the run game or defenses. The low-total Texans-Titans matchup at 37.5 looks like a grind, so target players who can exploit that spread without relying on big plays.

Top Stacks

ARI vs SF ($20,200)

Players: Jacoby Brissett, Trey McBride, Christian McCaffrey

This stack pairs QB Jacoby Brissett and TE Trey McBride from Arizona with SF RB Christian McCaffrey as the bring-back, projecting 63.6 points with 18.9% ownership, 18.2% optimal rate, and 24.3% boom rate, offering 3.15 pts/$1K value.

Brissett and McBride show strong correlation, with McBride scoring 5 TDs across Brissett’s four starts, including 9-127-1 on 13 targets in Week 10’s loss to Seattle where Brissett threw for 258 yards and 2 TDs despite garbage-time production. McBride’s red-zone role has surged under Brissett, posting 55 yards and a TD on 9 targets in Week 9, enhancing stack upside against SF’s injury-hit defense.

McCaffrey’s bring-back adds leverage from favorable game script, as Arizona’s run defense surrendered 198 rushing yards and 2 TDs to Seattle in Week 10; CMC grinded for 96 total yards on 22 touches versus the Rams despite 2.5 YPC, but exploded for 173 yards and 2 TDs on 34 touches in Week 9, positioning him for volume if SF controls the pace.

SF vs ARI ($17,100)

Players: Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Trey McBride

The SF-ARI stack projects 53.2 points with 11.9% ownership, 14.6% optimal rate, and 18.3% boom rate, offering 3.11 pts/$1K value. Purdy’s return from turf toe injury after full practice Thursday boosts SF correlation, as he retakes the offense from Mac Jones and targets Kittle, who posted his best fantasy game of 2025 with 9 receptions for 84 yards and a TD in Week 10, plus 3 TDs across his last 5 active games. McBride provides strong ARI bring-back upside in potential trailing game scripts, exploding for 9 receptions, 127 yards, and a TD on 13 targets versus Seattle in Week 10, and adding another TD with 55 yards on 9 targets in Week 9, capitalizing on the injury-weakened 49ers defense.

QB Plays

J.J. McCarthy ($5,200)

J.J. McCarthy returns to full health for Sunday’s dome matchup against Chicago, where the Vikings’ pass-heavy offense ranks third in passing rate over expectation. He averages 17.9 DK points per game this season and projects for 20.2 points at 3.88x value, with a 19.0% boom rate that outpaces his 12.5% ownership. McCarthy’s prop lines—219.5 passing yards and 23.5 rushing yards—align perfectly with Minnesota’s +2.6% PROE, especially against a Bears defense that struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks, setting him up for efficient volume and dual-threat upside in a 48.0-point total game.

This selection thrives on McCarthy’s seamless transition back into the lineup after full practice Thursday, free from his hand injury. The Vikings’ -3 spread favors their aerial attack, and with Chicago’s -3.5% PROE indicating run-heavy tendencies that could open passing lanes, McCarthy delivers consistent 17.9-point floors while chasing optimal 10.4% lineup inclusion through big-play potential indoors.

Honorable Mentions

• Jacoby Brissett ($4,900)
• Brock Purdy ($5,800)

RB Plays

Chase Brown ($5,700)

Chase Brown faces Pittsburgh’s inconsistent run defense on the road, where he projects for 18.0 DK points at 3.15x value and a robust 26.0% boom rate despite 25.1% ownership. His recent form shines with double-digit carries for three straight games, including 11 rushes for 37 yards and a season-high eight receptions for 75 yards against the Bears, showcasing his receiving prowess in high-scoring affairs. The Bengals’ -5.5 spread and 48.5-point total in 45-degree winds with 22 mph gusts still favor Brown’s 60.5 rushing yard and 3.5 reception props, as Cincy’s backfield committee leans on his versatility for 13.2 points per game average.

Brown builds momentum from topping 100 total yards with two touchdowns in his prior outing, positioning him as the clear RB1 option in an offense that exploits defensive gaps. Pittsburgh’s vulnerabilities against receiving backs amplify his 24.5 receiving yard projection, turning moderate weather challenges into opportunities for explosive carries and catches that elevate his 21.4% optimal lineup rate.

Honorable Mentions

• Christian McCaffrey ($9,000)
• Jaylen Warren ($6,100)

WR Plays

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,900)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba delivers elite production in Seattle’s dome clash at Los Angeles, projecting 24.1 DK points at 2.71x value with a 23.0% boom rate and 17.5% ownership. He leads the league with 1,000 receiving yards already, highlighted by five catches for 93 yards and a touchdown in the blowout win over Arizona, plus 129 yards on eight receptions against Washington. As the Seahawks’ alpha receiver, Smith-Njigba commands 6.5 reception and 95.5-yard props in a -3 spread game totaling 48.5 points, where the Rams’ +2.3% PROE signals pass-heavy play that feeds his 22.4 points per game consistency.

Smith-Njigba’s role expands in this pivotal NFC West matchup, fresh off a 43-yard touchdown peel against top coverage and no lingering concussion concerns. Seattle’s run-heavy -6.5% PROE actually boosts his target share against a Rams secondary prone to big plays, driving his path to career-high yards and reinforcing his top Hero Rank of 3 through unmatched volume and efficiency.

Honorable Mentions

• Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500)
• Puka Nacua ($8,700)

TE Plays

Trey McBride ($6,300)

Trey McBride operates as Arizona’s red-zone focal point against San Francisco’s injury-depleted defense in the dome, projecting 20.1 DK points at 3.19x value and a league-high 29.0% boom rate with 22.3% ownership. He erupts for nine receptions on 13 targets, 127 yards, and a touchdown in the recent loss to Seattle, marking his first 100-yard game of 2025 and fifth score in four starts with Jacoby Brissett. McBride’s 7.5 reception and 77.5-yard props align with the Cardinals’ +3.9% pass-heavy PROE in a 48.5-point total, where the 49ers’ weaknesses amplify his season average of 17.8 points.

McBride sustains his scoring surge from five catches and a touchdown versus Dallas, cementing his status as the premier tight end with -115 TD odds. The -3.5 spread keeps Arizona aggressive through the air, funneling targets to McBride’s reliable hands and positioning him for 24.6% optimal inclusion by exploiting mismatches that turn routine routes into fantasy gold.

Honorable Mentions

• Oronde Gadsden II ($4,600)
• George Kittle ($5,000)

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