FREE 11/13 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

Week 11 kicks off with an AFC East clash that, on paper, looks like a mismatch but could still offer some interesting DFS angles. We’ve got the red-hot Patriots, riding a seven-game win streak, hosting the surprisingly two-game winning streak Jets. The Pats are heavy 12.5-point favorites with a 43.5 total, suggesting a comfortable win for New England. Drake Maye, who’s been an MVP candidate, leads a Patriots offense that’s been spreading the ball around, even with Kayshon Boutte likely out again. TreVeyon Henderson steps in for the injured Rhamondre Stevenson and looked great last week. On the Jets side, it’s a mess, with Justin Fields likely at QB and Garrett Wilson sidelined, leaving very few reliable receiving options. Breece Hall faces a tough Patriots run defense, which is a major concern. The weather looks chilly but clear, 39 degrees with a slight 8 mph wind, so no major weather concerns to throw a wrench into our plans.

Despite the lopsided spread, primetime divisional games can always get a little weird, so we need to be prepared for anything. The Patriots’ offensive firepower, especially with Maye slinging it and Henderson running wild, makes them a strong foundation for our lineups. The Jets’ offensive struggles, however, mean we’ll need to be very selective if we’re looking for value there. The lack of reliable receiving options for New York, coupled with the Patriots’ stout run defense, makes it tough to project significant output from many Jets players. We’ll need to figure out how to leverage the Patriots’ dominance while identifying any contrarian Jets plays that could pay off if this game gets a bit out of hand, or if the Jets somehow keep it closer than expected. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for Thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Drake Maye ($18,000)

Drake Maye faces the Jets at home, a matchup where his 1.5x captain multiplier perfectly aligns with his ceiling potential in a game the Patriots are expected to control. He continues to connect for big plays, evidenced by his recent 72-yard touchdown pass and a five-game multi-TD-pass streak, giving him a robust 31.62 DK points projection. His moderate 15.4% captain ownership makes him an excellent leverage play, and while his base salary is $12,000, his CPT salary of $18,000 is still highly efficient, delivering a strong 1.76x value that maximizes his scoring upside.

Honorable Mention

• TreVeyon Henderson ($15,900)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Justin Fields ($9,400)

Justin Fields’s situation presents an intriguing high-leverage opportunity for DFS managers, despite recent dips in production. His 44.1% optimal lineup rate, coupled with a staggering 52.8% projected ownership, signals significant faith in his ceiling potential, even with the coach’s coy comments about the starting QB role. Fields consistently demonstrates a rushing upside that elevates his floor and ceiling, with a projected 33.5 rushing yards and a 320 TD odds, making him a dual-threat option capable of explosive plays against any defense.

The matchup against New England, while historically tough, comes at a pivotal moment where Fields could regain form. His recent struggles, including the 8.0 DK points per game over the last two, are concerning, but the overall context of the Jets’ offense, including the potential absence of Garrett Wilson, means Fields could be forced to rely more on his legs, which directly translates to DFS points. At a $9,400 salary, his 1.57x value indicates he offers substantial upside relative to his cost if he returns to his prior 11.3 DK points average.

2. Mason Taylor ($4,000)

Mason Taylor delivers exceptional value at his $4,000 salary, boasting a 2.23x value projection and an outstanding 56.9% optimal lineup percentage, making him a cornerstone for many winning lineups. Despite a recent dip to 1.4 DK points per game over his last two outings, his overall season trajectory shows moments of significant involvement, including a game-winning touchdown in Week 8, highlighting his red-zone potential.

The Jets’ offensive landscape, particularly the uncertain wide receiver situation with Garrett Wilson’s knee injury, could funnel targets directly to Taylor. Should the Jets find themselves trailing against New England, a pass-heavy script would significantly increase his projected 4.5 receptions and 32.5 receiving yards, amplifying his chances to exceed his modest salary expectation. His moderate 27.3% ownership offers a compelling balance of upside and differentiation from the highest-owned players.

Honorable Mentions

• Hunter Henry ($5,400)

Bargain Bin

Kyle Williams ($2,000)

Kyle Williams has been trending upwards with 7.1 DK points per game over his last two outings, significantly higher than his 4.7 average over the past four, and he just showcased his elite speed with a 72-yard touchdown catch. Tonight’s short turnaround against the Jets likely keeps Kayshon Boutte sidelined, opening up additional snap opportunities for Williams, especially given his recent splash play and his first career NFL score.

Williams faces a favorable matchup against the Jets, and with a $2000 salary, he offers exceptional value at 2.54x his projected 5.07 DK points, making him an optimal lineup choice in 35.3% of simulations. His recent usage spike and big-play ability, highlighted by a 400 TD odds prop and a 19.5 receiving yards line, position him for multiple scoring opportunities in a game where he’s expected to see increased involvement.

Honorable Mention

• Jets ($3,200)

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