FREE 11/20 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

Week 12 kicks off with the Bills heading to Houston for a Thursday night AFC clash under the dome at 8:15 PM ET, with a total sitting at 44.5. Buffalo’s at 7-3, Houston’s 5-5, and it’s a Bills offense ranking fourth in points per game against a Texans defense that’s No. 1 in fewest points allowed—Bills favored by 5.5 on the road. The low total suggests a grind-it-out game where usage and matchups will drive ownership.

Key storylines for building lineups revolve around Buffalo’s spread-the-ball attack with Josh Allen at the helm—he’s seventh in passing TDs and third in rushing scores, but with Dalton Kincaid out and Keon Coleman sidelined, targets could funnel to Khalil Shakir or James Cook, who’s second in rushing yards at 968 and tied for sixth in rushing TDs. On Houston’s side, Davis Mills steps in for the concussed C.J. Stroud, averaging 283 yards and three TDs over his last two starts, boosting Nico Collins who’s exploded lately with 100+ yard games. The backfield split between Joe Mixon and Dare Ogunbowale leans toward Mixon for volume, but Houston’s offense ranks 19th in yards, so lean on Bills’ studs against that elite D. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Josh Allen ($18,600)

Josh Allen piles up massive fantasy outputs with six total touchdowns in Buffalo’s latest high-scoring win, including 317 passing yards and three rushing scores that pushed his recent average to 34.5 DK points over the last two games. His dual-threat profile shines against Houston’s defense, where prop lines of 223.5 passing yards and 32.5 rushing yards align perfectly with his 33.3-point projection, and at just 10.8% captain ownership, the 1.5x multiplier unlocks elite ceiling value without the roster percentage chase.

Honorable Mention

• James Cook III ($17,100)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Davis Mills ($9,600)

Davis Mills steps into his third straight start for the Texans against the Bills, fresh off two impressive outings where he tallied 24.0 DK points per game through efficient passing and sneaky rushing upside. He completed 53 of 86 passes for 566 yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception while adding 34 rushing yards and a score, showcasing his ability to manage games against middling defenses. With C.J. Stroud sidelined by concussion protocol, Mills commands the offense in a matchup where Buffalo’s secondary has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.

This $9,600 salary delivers strong value at 1.57x projection, especially with Mills’ prop lines of 214.5 passing yards and 8.5 rushing yards aligning perfectly for a 15.1-point floor that could spike higher in Houston’s pass-heavy scheme. The Bills’ defense ranks outside the top 15 in EPA per dropback, creating openings for Mills to exploit with receivers like Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and his 38.6% optimal lineup rate underscores why he anchors top DFS builds without the ownership crush of elite arms.

2. Khalil Shakir ($8,000)

Khalil Shakir faces the Texans on a short week after shaking off ankle and rib tweaks to practice fully, positioning him as Buffalo’s go-to slot weapon in an offense that thrives on quick passes against zone-heavy defenses. Houston’s secondary ranks 22nd in yards per attempt allowed to slot receivers, and Shakir’s prior three-game stretch of 20 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown on 24 targets highlights his crisp route-running and rapport with Josh Allen. Even with a quiet last outing, his role expands in favorable game scripts where the Bills lead and lean on underneath options.

At $8,000, Shakir crushes value metrics with a 1.70x projection multiplier and 41.9% optimal lineup share, backed by receiving yards (45.5) and receptions (4.5) props that scream multi-catch potential in a high-scoring affair. His moderate 30.8% ownership keeps him off the radar compared to pricier Bills targets, yet he consistently delivers in Allen’s high-volume passing attack, which ranks top-five in air yards to the slot, making him the WR steal that elevates stacks without breaking the bank.

Honorable Mentions

• Nico Collins ($11,200)

Bargain Bin

Tyrell Shavers ($2,400)

Shavers erupts for 90 yards and a touchdown on four catches in his last game, leading the Bills in receiving production while stepping up amid added opportunities. He averages 12.7 DK points per game over his past two outings, more than doubling his 9.0 average from the previous four, showcasing his ability to capitalize on every target. His prop lines reflect this momentum with 1.5 receptions and 22.5 receiving yards as expectations, plus +450 touchdown odds that align with his recent red-zone efficiency.

Facing Houston’s defense on the road, Shavers draws from a Bills offense implied for high-volume passing in a matchup where the Texans have surrendered big plays to slot receivers lately. At just $2,400, he delivers 2.57 times value on a 6.2-point projection, with 38.8% optimal lineup inclusion underscoring his leverage at 18.8% ownership. This setup positions him for another multi-catch performance that pushes toward double-digit fantasy output.

Honorable Mention

• Dawson Knox ($4,000)

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