FREE 11/23 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 12 is upon us, and we’ve got a juicy main slate with a good spread of totals that range from defensive grinds to potential shootouts. Standouts include the Patriots-Bengals at 51 points and Giants-Lions at 50.5, both setting up nicely for stacking high-upside offenses. On the lower end, Browns-Raiders sits at just 36, which could limit scoring and push value toward defenses or low-ownership plays.

Weather looks mostly cooperative across the board, with clear skies and light winds in the outdoor games—nothing over 8 mph to worry about disrupting passing attacks. The domed matchups like Jaguars-Cardinals and Eagles-Cowboys keep things predictable indoors, while spreads like Ravens -13.5 over Jets and Lions -13 against Giants highlight spots where favorites might dominate and create efficient target shares for their key players.

Top Stacks

NYG vs DET ($18,100)

Players: Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Wan’Dale Robinson

The DET-NYG stack projects 58.7 points with 13.6% ownership, 15.2% optimal rate, and 18.7% boom rate, offering 3.01 pts/$1K value. Goff and St. Brown showed strong DET correlation in Week 10 with Goff’s 320 yards and 3 TDs fueling St. Brown’s 58 yards and a score, but both faltered in Week 11 amid Goff’s career-worst 37.8% completion rate that limited St. Brown to 2 catches on 12 targets for 42 yards; their rebound potential is high at home against a Giants secondary that ranks 28th in EPA allowed per pass. As a NYG bring-back, Robinson offers upside in a trailing game script, drawing 9 targets for 36 yards last week and 11 for 62 the prior outing with aggressive QBs like Winston pushing downfield volume if DET builds a lead and forces 35+ pass attempts from the Giants.

NE vs CIN ($19,600)

Players: Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, Chase Brown

The NE-CIN stack projects 58.2 points with 15.5% ownership, 13.3% optimal rate, and 17.3% boom rate, offering 2.97 pts/$1K value. Drake Maye and Stefon Diggs show strong correlation, with Maye throwing for 281 yards and Diggs hauling in 105 yards on 11 targets in Week 11, building on Diggs’ prior 46-yard, 1-TD outing off Maye’s 270-yard, 2-TD performance in Week 10. Chase Brown’s bring-back upside ties to a favorable game script against NE’s stout run defense, where his recent workhorse role—99 rush yards plus 28 receiving for 127 total in Week 10, and 75 receiving yards on 14 targets in Week 9—could exploit checkdowns if CIN trails and airs it out versus the vulnerable Bengals secondary.

QB Plays

Jalen Hurts ($6,600)

Jalen Hurts maintains elite efficiency in Philadelphia’s offense, completing 69 percent of his passes while accounting for 22 total touchdowns against just three turnovers through 10 starts. His rushing production delivers consistent value, as seen in his recent 31-yard touchdown against Detroit that paced the team’s scoring, and he averages 18.6 DK points over his last four games despite a slight dip to 15.3 in the most recent two. At $6,600 with a 3.40x value projection and 22.5 DK points expected, Hurts carries moderate 9.8 percent ownership that aligns with his Hero Rank of 4.

The Eagles’ -3 spread and 47.5 total against Dallas set up a pass-heavy script, especially with the Cowboys offering a soft matchup that boosts Hurts’ stock for Week 12. His prop lines reflect this upside, including -110 odds for a passing touchdown and 28.5 rushing yards, while the dome environment eliminates weather variables and his +2.4 percent opponent PROE favors aerial attacks. Hurts thrives in these spots, positioning him as the top QB choice with a 17.0 percent boom rate and 11.5 percent optimal lineup inclusion.

Honorable Mentions

• Jacoby Brissett ($5,300)
• Lamar Jackson ($6,700)

RB Plays

Chase Brown ($6,200)

Chase Brown has averaged 23.1 DK points over his last four games, surging to four straight outings with at least 100 total yards including a season-high 127 scrimmage yards on 24 touches against Pittsburgh. He handles a workhorse role without Samaje Perine, rushing for 99 yards on 18 carries while catching six passes for 28 yards in that contest, and his prop lines underscore his dual-threat appeal with -150 touchdown odds, 56.5 rushing yards, and 4.5 receptions. At $6,200, Brown projects for 19.8 DK points and 3.19x value, making him a high-ownership 23.9 percent play that matches his Hero Rank of 28.

Cincinnati’s -7 spread and sky-high 51.0 total against New England create a fast-paced environment where Brown’s 29.0 percent boom rate shines, even facing a stout run defense that he counters with receiving work averaging 30.5 yards projected. The Bengals lean on his breakout form from 2024, and with mild 54-degree weather and light 5.8 mph winds, Brown exploits game script to deliver RB1 production across 29.0 percent boom potential and 23.9 percent optimal lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300)
• Bijan Robinson ($8,500)

WR Plays

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000)

Amon-Ra St. Brown faces a Giants secondary ripe for exploitation in Detroit’s high-powered attack, where he leads the team in targets and boasts a consistent 19.1 DK points season average despite a recent 42-yard outing on 12 targets. His role remains unquestioned as the alpha receiver, evidenced by eight touchdowns this year including a 58-yard score against Washington, and at $8,000 he projects for 22.9 DK points with 2.86x value that justifies 21.4 percent ownership near his Hero Rank of 2. Prop lines like -130 touchdown odds and 6.5 receptions highlight his volume in a dome setting.

The Lions’ -13 spread and 50.5 total favor a blowout script that amplifies St. Brown’s 27.0 percent boom rate, especially against an opponent with -3.5 percent PROE that struggles versus pass-catchers. Detroit’s run-heavy tendency at -3.5 percent team PROE still funnels targets his way weekly, positioning him for a bounce-back explosion with 77.5 receiving yards projected and 25.0 percent optimal lineup inclusion as the premier WR option.

Honorable Mentions

• Tee Higgins ($7,100)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,000)

TE Plays

Trey McBride ($6,800)

Trey McBride operates in Arizona’s pass-heavy offense with +4.9 percent PROE, extending his touchdown streak to five straight games including 10 receptions for 115 yards and a score against San Francisco. He trends upward at 29.1 DK points per game over his last two outings, outpacing his 24.9 average across four, and racks up volume with 71 catches for 718 yards and seven scores through 10 starts. At $6,800, McBride projects for 20.3 DK points and 2.99x value, supporting his high 16.8 percent ownership and top Hero Rank of 1.

The Cardinals’ -2.5 spread and 47.5 total versus Jacksonville open passing lanes for his 25.0 percent boom rate, with prop lines reflecting dominance at -115 for a touchdown, 7.5 receptions, and 73.5 receiving yards in a dome that maximizes Brissett’s record-setting completion volume. McBride’s hot streak and central role make him the elite TE play, hitting 21.2 percent optimal lineups with consistent beast-mode production.

Honorable Mentions

• Brock Bowers ($6,000)
• Mark Andrews ($3,800)

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