FREE 12/04 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

Week 14 kicks off with the Lions hosting the Cowboys in a Thursday night showdown at 8:15 PM ET inside Ford Field’s dome. Detroit’s sitting at 7-5, a half-game up on Dallas at 6-5-1, and both offenses are elite—Dallas second in points per game, Detroit right behind at third—with the total set at 55.0 and the Lions favored by 3.5. For DFS showdown builds, this high-total spot means stacking pieces from these pass-heavy attacks could pay off big, especially with Jared Goff and Dak Prescott both tied for second in passing TDs at 25. The Lions’ usage has gotten even more concentrated, putting extra targets on Jahmyr Gibbs (tied for third in total TDs with 13) and Jameson Williams, who exploded for 144 yards and a score last week when St. Brown went down early. Tight end depth is thin too, with Sam LaPorta out from surgery and Brock Wright sidelined by a neck issue, so Anthony Firkser and Ross Dwelley aren’t worth much unless desperation hits.

On the Dallas side, Prescott’s feeding a loaded group led by CeeDee Lamb (sixth in receiving yards per game) and George Pickens (second), plus Jake Ferguson with seven TDs and 496 yards, while Javonte Williams owns the rushes at 955 yards—way ahead of Prescott’s 124 on the ground. Weather doesn’t appear to be a concern tonight; focus on matchup and usage. With both QBs avoiding picks (Goff with just five INTs) and these offenses clicking, look for correlated builds around the top targets, but watch how the Lions’ backfield split shakes out without St. Brown drawing coverage. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Jahmyr Gibbs ($16,500)

Jahmyr Gibbs delivers explosive dual-threat production with 35.0 DK points per game across his last two outings, including a three-touchdown monster against the Giants where he piled up 219 rushing yards and 11 receptions for 45 yards. Facing the Cowboys in a matchup ripe for Detroit’s high-powered offense to dominate, his props reflect strong expectations with -255 touchdown odds, an 80.5 rushing yard over/under, and 40.5 receiving yards alongside 5.5 catches, positioning him for another ceiling outing. At a 39.78 DK point projection, Gibbs crushes value at 2.41x his $16,500 captain salary with just 11.0% ownership, leveraging the 1.5x multiplier to turn his consistent volume into tournament-winning upside.

Honorable Mention

• Jameson Williams ($12,600)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Tom Kennedy ($2,000)

Tom Kennedy records a career-high four receptions for 36 yards in the Lions’ recent loss, stepping into an expanded offensive role due to injuries sidelining Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown. With St. Brown potentially out another week or two, Kennedy secures a spot in three-wide sets alongside Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa, boosting his target share in Detroit’s high-powered passing game that averages over 250 yards per contest. His season average of 7.6 DK points per game underscores consistent production from a practice squad promotion, and at just $2,000, he delivers 4.08x value with an 81.9% optimal lineup rate that far outpaces his 41.8% projected ownership.

Kennedy faces a Cowboys secondary vulnerable to slot receivers, ranking 22nd in points allowed to the position over the last month, which aligns perfectly with his quick-route profile and return specialist agility adding gadget upside. Projections peg him at 8.2 DK points, smashing his prop lines of 2.5 receptions and 27.5 receiving yards while his +320 TD odds reflect hidden ceiling in a Lions offense pushing pace against Dallas’ depleted defense. As the top WR value play, Kennedy maximizes GPP leverage without salary sacrifice, turning injury chaos into roster gold.

2. Dak Prescott ($10,400)

Dak Prescott completes 27 of 39 passes for 320 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving victory, extending his streak of multi-TD games to three straight with an 8:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio that fuels Dallas’ playoff surge. He follows that with 354 yards and another score in a comeback win against Philadelphia, including a rushing touchdown on five carries for nine yards, showcasing his dual-threat mobility in an offense that ranks top-five in neutral-script passing efficiency. Averaging 21.3 DK points per game this season, Prescott thrives under pressure, hitting 277.5-yard props consistently while his +600 TD odds undervalue his red-zone precision.

Prescott travels to Detroit for a matchup against a Lions defense that yields the third-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks over the past five weeks, creating fertile ground for his elite arm talent amid a projected shootout. At $10,400, he offers 2.08x value with a 21.6-point projection and 43.3% optimal lineup inclusion, dwarfing field-average ownership at 48.9% thanks to CeeDee Lamb’s continued alpha status drawing coverage. As the premier QB stack anchor, Prescott elevates Cowboys exposure in high-total games, delivering boom potential that secures cash and tournament edges alike.

Honorable Mentions

• CeeDee Lamb ($9,600)

Bargain Bin

KaVontae Turpin ($2,400)

Turpin continues to carve out a consistent gadget role in the Cowboys offense, mixing two receptions for 28 yards with three carries for 33 yards in his most recent game against Kansas City. His speed turns every touch into a big-play threat, as evidenced by surpassing 50 yards from scrimmage for the second straight outing and fourth time this season, while his season averages of 5.9 DK points per game provide a reliable floor at this $2,400 salary. The prop lines reflect his multi-faceted usage with 1.5 receptions, 13.5 receiving yards, and 3.5 rushing yards expected, plus his elite kick return work—1,036 yards on 40 returns, third-most in the NFL—adds extra scoring upside on a per-touch basis.

Facing Detroit’s defense on the road, Turpin’s quickness exploits a secondary that has struggled to contain perimeter speed, allowing 12.3 yards per reception to slot and gadget receivers over the past four games. With Dallas implied to score around 23 points in this matchup, his five touches last time out signal an expanded role in a game script that favors explosive plays, and at 2.06x value with just 11.4% projected ownership, he delivers tournament leverage without sacrificing that steady 5-point projection.

Honorable Mention

• Ross Dwelley ($2,800)

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