FREE 12/07 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 14 is upon us, with an 11-game slate that is sure to bring some craziness. The highest total stands out with Cincinnati at Buffalo sitting at 53.0, setting up a potential shootout that could favor stacking those offenses despite the 87% chance of snow. On the lower end, Tennessee at Cleveland checks in at just 34.0 with 61% snow probability, pointing to a grind-it-out game where running backs might see heavy usage if the weather slows things down.

Several dome games like Seattle at Atlanta, Washington at Minnesota, Denver at Las Vegas, and Los Angeles at Arizona should keep those totals reliable without weather interference, making them solid for consistent scoring. Keep an eye on the rainy spots too—Indianapolis at Jacksonville (80% rain) and New Orleans at Tampa Bay (55% rain)—as that could limit passing efficiency and boost ground games for value plays.

Top Stacks

ARI vs LAR ($20,000)

Players: Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson, Puka Nacua

The ARI-LAR stack with Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson, and Puka Nacua as the bring-back projects 58.5 points with 17.0% ownership, 15.6% optimal rate, and 18.3% boom rate, offering 2.92 pts/$1K value. Brissett’s correlation with Wilson strengthens this week, as Brissett has thrown for 300+ yards in four of seven starts during Kyler Murray’s absence (67.8% completion, 13:4 TD:INT ratio) while Wilson faces a target vacuum with Marvin Harrison (heel) and Greg Dortch (chest) ruled out, potentially mirroring Wilson’s Weeks 11-12 spike of elevated production before his recent 3-36 line with Harrison back. Nacua’s bring-back upside ties to favorable game script if the Rams trail or play from behind against a Cardinals defense that could keep it close, building on his five-game streak of 5+ catches (32-403-2 on 42 targets) including 6-72 versus Carolina and 7-97 against Tampa Bay.

LAR vs ARI ($21,200)

Players: Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Michael Wilson

The LAR-ARI stack with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Michael Wilson as the bring-back projects 60.7 points with 16.0% ownership, 15.1% optimal rate, and 17.0% boom rate, offering 2.86 pts/$1K value. Stafford and Nacua exhibit strong correlation as teammates, with Nacua leading the Rams in targets over his last five games (32 targets, 403 yards, 2 TDs) while Stafford has delivered multiple TD passes in six straight outings, including 25-for-35 with 3 TDs in Week 12 despite three turnovers in Week 13. Wilson’s bring-back upside surges in favorable game scripts against LAR’s defense, as he now leads an injury-riddled ARI WR group with Marvin Harrison and Greg Dortch ruled out, potentially mirroring his Weeks 11-12 spike (elevated targets and production) if ARI trails and relies on volume passing.

QB Plays

Josh Allen ($7,700)

Josh Allen continues to deliver dual-threat dominance, completing 15 of 23 passes for 123 yards with a touchdown and rushing for 38 yards and another score in his latest gritty win over the Steelers. Despite a minor elbow concern that didn’t limit his output, Allen’s ability to score with both arm and legs shines through, marking the 49th such game in his career while Buffalo’s offense leans on his mobility in run-heavy sets with a -3.9% pass rate over expectation.

The high-total matchup against Cincinnati’s pass-heavy attack, projected at 53 points with Buffalo favored by six, sets up Allen for 24.1 projected points and 3.14x value at his $7,700 salary. Snowy conditions with 87% chance and light winds favor his rushing upside, especially versus a Bengals defense vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, pushing his boom rate to 15% and making him a lock for optimal lineups at 11.9%.

Honorable Mentions

• Jayden Daniels ($6,000)

RB Plays

James Cook III ($7,800)

James Cook III faces a Bengals run defense ripe for exploitation, having just exploded for 144 rushing yards on 32 carries plus 33 receiving yards on three catches in a blowout win over Pittsburgh. Buffalo’s workhorse back handled 35 touches without missing a beat, accounting for 48% of the team’s yards and building on a season of nine touchdowns and 1,464 scrimmage yards that underscore his reliability.

With a 53-point total and Buffalo’s -6 spread signaling a favorable script for ground control, Cook projects for 21.4 points and 2.74x value at $7,800, boasting a 24% boom rate that elevates his 20.4% optimal lineup share. Snow at 87% chance in Buffalo enhances his short-yardage role against Cincinnati’s middling front, positioning him to dominate touches and deliver another high-floor explosion.

Honorable Mentions

• De’Von Achane ($8,800)
• Josh Jacobs ($6,800)

WR Plays

Michael Wilson ($5,600)

Michael Wilson delivers outsized value at $5,600, leading Arizona’s injury-depleted receiver group after Marvin Harrison and Greg Dortch both sit out with heel and chest issues. He grabs a massive target share in this scenario, fresh off seven targets that yielded three catches for 36 yards, but now clears the path for volume spikes in a pass-heavy offense with +5.7% pass rate over expectation against a similarly aerial-focused Rams unit.

Projections hit 16.9 points with 3.02x value and a 22% boom rate, fueled by his 68.5-yard receiving prop and 5.5 receptions line in a dome setting with a 47.5 total. As the clear alpha with potential additions like Xavier Weaver questionable, Wilson’s 23% ownership aligns with 20.9% optimal builds, turning Arizona’s -9.5 spread into a target bonanza versus a Rams secondary that can’t shadow him alone.

Honorable Mentions

• Puka Nacua ($8,700)
• Ja’Marr Chase ($8,200)

TE Plays

Kyle Pitts Sr. ($4,200)

Kyle Pitts Sr. has averaged seven targets per game recently, leading Atlanta with eight targets for seven catches and 82 yards as the top receiver in their loss to the Jets without Drake London. The 6-foot-6 tight end stretches the seam consistently, securing multiple receptions in every outing this season and thriving in dome protections where his size mismatches defenses.

Facing Seattle’s tight end struggles in a 44.5-total game with Atlanta -7, Pitts projects 13.3 points and 3.16x value at $4,200, with London’s potential absence funneling more looks his way for a 15% boom rate. His steady floor across 13.7% ownership fits 12.5% optimal lineups perfectly, capitalizing on the Falcons’ pass tendencies to finally unlock that elusive second touchdown.

Honorable Mentions

• Brock Bowers ($6,000)
• Trey McBride ($8,000)

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