FREE 12/05 NFL TNF Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

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Lots of offense and an exciting divisional game. Sign me up, as there is no better way to begin the week. To kick off Week 14, the 9-3 Green Bay Packers travel to Detroit to take on the 11-1 Lions. Each team played on Thanksgiving, so this is a unique Thursday night game, as both teams are on full rest. Team defenses are likely off the table tonight with an over/under of 51.5. The game is expected to be relatively tight as the Lions are favored by the standard three-point, home team edge. We have a lot to consider for Thursday’s action, so let’s jump right into some TNF DFS picks for Week 14.

Captain

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers ($14,100 DK/$13,500 FD)

Offense starts with the quarterback. Yes, Captain Obvious, that’s how football works as a rising tide does lift all boats. The problem though, is that it’s unclear who exactly the biggest beneficiary will be amongst the Green Bay skill position players. So, instead, let’s go after their quarterback as he works to keep up the Lions’ offense.

Last week, Love did exactly what was necessary as he completed 21 of 28 passes for 274 yards and two touchdowns. Nothing more was needed as the Packers jumped in the driver’s seat early on. So far this season, Love is averaging 252 passing yards per game with 20 touchdowns. Moving the ball down the field hasn’t been an issue for Love when healthy this year, and that should continue tonight.

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions ($12,900 DK/$12,000 FD)

Touchdowns and David Montgomery go together quite seamlessly. In fact, it’s almost like a foregone conclusion Montgomery will reach the end zone. He has 12 touchdowns on the season, and last week, Montgomery proved that there are no lingering issues with his shoulder. Despite not scoring a touchdown, Montgomery carried the ball 21 times for 88 yards as he continued his strong season.

Detroit will look to establish time of possession tonight, and Montgomery and his 720 rushing yards on the season will play a large part in that.

Flex Plays

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions ($5,600 DK/$9,500 FD)

While Sam LaPorta might not be the best-skill position player on the slate, he is the most efficient from a salary cap perspective. With all of the weapons available, that certainly comes into play tonight.

LaPorta’s season to this point hasn’t been as strong compared to last season, but the ability and upside is still there. The good news is that he still has a solid role in Detroit’s offense, with six targets in each of his last three games. Last week, LaPorta reprised his red zone ability in catching two touchdown passes. That’s what we are really after tonight.

The fact that Packers struggle against opposing tight ends this season is only an added bonus.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers ($9,800 DK/$12,500 FD)

It took a little bit to get going, but Josh Jacobs has done a great job in adjusting to living in Green Bay. He’s just 13 rushing yards away from breaking the 1,000-yard mark, and that should come tonight. Despite gaining just 43 yards on 19 carries last week, Jacobs is averaging 118 yards per game in his last five. Even more importantly, he reached the end zone once again last week and is averaging more than a touchdown per game in that stretch.

There is no doubting who the workhorse is in Green Bay’s backfield. The fact that he supplemented his production last week with four catches for 74 yards is even better.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions ($9,000 DK/($15,000 FD)

There is no need to worry in Detroit, as there is more than enough work to support two running backs. In fact, Jahmyr Gibbs might be even better than Montgomery this season as he is averaging six yards per carry and is just seven yards away from 1,000 on the season. The touchdowns have been equitable, with Gibbs reaching the end zone 11 times. He does suffer from the abundance of passing weapons in Detroit, but Gibbs has caught 28 passes for another 282 yards.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions ($10,200 DK/$14,500 FD)

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Amon-Ra St. Brown is the most expensive option on the slate tonight. That makes fitting him into lineups perhaps more difficult than we would like it to be. He’s gone two weeks without a touchdown catch, but with 10 on the season, St. Brown is certainly due this week. There’s no doubt that he’s Goff’s number-one target, with 820 yards on 76 catches so far this season.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions ($7,000 DK/$10,500 FD)

Despite being a big play threat at all times, Jameson Williams has just four touchdowns on the season. With a two-game suspension on his ledger, there have been some playing time issues, but the upside is present.

Williams has been targeted 14 times, with 10 receptions, over the past two weeks, so at least there is a solid floor present.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers ($7,600 DK/$11,000 FD)

A lot of it is based on game flow for Detroit, but the Lions are struggling against receivers from a DFS perspective this season. If I have to pick one Packers receiver to target, especially with Romeo Doubs out, it’s going to be Jayden Reed.

While Reed only caught three of his six targets last week for 24 yards, two were for touchdowns. We’ve seen Reed put up big games in the past, so the upside is there.

Value Plays

Tim Patrick, WR, Detroit Lions ($3,400 DK/$8,000 FD)

Despite not catching a touchdown pass yet this season, Tim Patrick has carved out a solid role as the number three receiver in Detroit. He’s been targeted at least three times per game in the last three weeks, catching nine passes for 129 yards on 11 targets. We are looking for just one big catch from Patrick with a touchdown, an added bonus.

Fade

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions ($9,600 DK/$13,000 FD)

Jared Goff is never going to be an exciting or prolific quarterback. However, with 2,982 passing yards and 22 touchdowns, he is generating results.

The problem, though, is that when these teams played each other a few weeks ago, Goff struggled throwing for just 145 yards and a touchdown. In fact, Goff hasn’t scored more than 12.8 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Gibbs and Montgomery do soak up a lot of the upside, and that’s a concern tonight as well.

TNF Prop Bets

Jordan Love Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-115 on DraftKings)

This is a perfectly placed number, as Jordan Love is averaging 252 yards per game this season. Tonight, the game flow and conditions are perfectly aligned for him to eclipse this number. Playing in a dome helps from a weather perspective, and when these teams played a few weeks ago, Love threw for 273 yards.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-125 on DraftKings)

The fact that this is going to be both a high-scoring and close game certainly benefits St. Brown. It should go down to the last minutes of the game which means St. Brown will be involved through all four quarters. This mark couldn’t be closer to St. Brown’s yardage average per game, but there have been some one-sided efforts from Detroit included here. When he last faced Green Bay, St. Brown caught seven passes for 56 yards, so that puts him in line to hit this number.

Josh Jacobs Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-130 on DraftKings)

In Week 9, Jacobs only needed 13 carries to gain 95 yards against the Lions. That was the beginning of a strong stretch in which Jacobs is averaging 118 rushing yards over five games. Volume won’t be an issue tonight, and Jacobs shouldn’t have any issues hitting this number.