FREE 03/01 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

It’s an intriguing 8-game NHL slate tonight with a mix of high-total matchups and lower-scoring environments to navigate. The Canadiens-Sabres (6.5 O/U) and Oilers-Hurricanes (6.5 O/U) stand out as the top game environments for DFS, featuring some shaky goaltending situations—particularly Jakub Dobes for Montreal and Calvin Pickard for Edmonton—making both games prime spots for stacks. On the flip side, lower-total games like Flyers-Jets (5.5 O/U) and Kings-Blues (5.5 O/U) could offer value plays if you’re targeting more defensive matchups or contrarian options.

Goalie selection will be critical with several backups in net tonight. Connor Hellebuyck at home against Philadelphia looks like one of the safer options on paper, while Frederik Andersen should draw plenty of attention in Carolina’s matchup against Edmonton’s high-powered but inconsistent offense. If you’re looking for riskier GPP pivots, John Gibson in Anaheim or Karel Vejmelka at home against New Jersey could see plenty of volume in games projected to stay relatively close. Balancing exposure to these key matchups while finding value in secondary games will be the key to building competitive lineups tonight.

Top Stacks

EDM PP1 ($22,100)

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard

The EDM PP1 stack of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard offers a high-upside option with a projected 39.5 points at a total salary of $22,100, yielding a solid value of 1.79 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 8.4%, the stack provides leverage relative to its strong optimal lineup rate of 12.9%, indicating it is more likely to appear in top-performing lineups than its popularity suggests. This combination of elite point projection and favorable leverage makes it an appealing choice for tournaments, especially given the efficiency implied by its value and optimal rate metrics.

OTT PP1 ($21,800)

Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stuetzle, Jake Sanderson

The Ottawa Senators PP1 stack of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stuetzle, and Jake Sanderson offers a strong projected points total of 39.2 at a combined salary of $21,800, resulting in a solid value of 1.80 pts/$1000. While the average ownership is moderately high at 14.0%, its optimal lineup rate of 9.7% suggests it may be slightly over-owned relative to its chances of being the best stack on the slate. This makes it a viable option for tournaments but potentially less appealing for leverage compared to lower-owned stacks with similar or higher optimal rates. As a power-play unit, it carries inherent upside tied to concentrated scoring opportunities, but the data indicates that roster construction considerations should weigh ownership versus optimal rate carefully when including this stack.

BUF PP1 ($20,200)

Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch

The BUF PP1 stack, consisting of Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Alex Tuch, offers a solid combination of projected production and value. With a total salary of $20,200, the stack is projected to score 37.6 points, resulting in a respectable value of 1.86 pts/$1000. Its average ownership sits at 9.1%, which is relatively moderate compared to its optimal lineup rate of 9.6%, indicating a slight edge in leveraging this stack for tournament play. As a power-play unit (PP1), it benefits from correlation among high-upside players, making it an efficient option with balanced ownership and strong potential for inclusion in optimal lineups based on current projections.

C Plays

Top Play: Macklin Celebrini ($6,600)

Macklin Celebrini ($6,600) stands out as a strong DFS option tonight in a favorable matchup against Ottawa. His 12.38-point projection and 1.88x value rank him as the top tournament play at center, supported by his presence in 14.7% of optimal lineups. Celebrini has been consistent offensively, with nine points in his last nine games, and his shot volume (156 shots in 46 games) provides a solid floor. Ottawa’s defensive struggles—they rank near the bottom of the league in high-danger chances allowed—further enhance his ceiling, especially given his ability to generate scoring opportunities.

At 10.8% projected ownership, Celebrini is chalkier than most players on this slate but still reasonable for tournaments given his upside and price point. While he won’t provide contrarian leverage, the ownership feels justified for someone producing at this level on a Sharks team that relies heavily on him offensively. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Celebrini offers an excellent combination of floor, ceiling, and value to anchor your lineup at center.

Honorable Mentions

• Connor McDavid ($8,200)
• Sebastian Aho ($6,700)
• Jack Hughes ($8,000)

W Plays

Top Play: Brady Tkachuk ($7,700)

Brady Tkachuk ($7,700) is in a prime spot against a struggling San Jose team, making him one of the stronger plays on this slate. With a projection of 15.2 DK points and appearing in 16.6% of optimal lineups, he offers a solid mix of floor and ceiling thanks to his high shot volume and physical play. The Sharks rank near the bottom of the league defensively, which enhances his scoring upside, especially given his top power-play role. At 1.97x value, his salary is reasonable for what he brings to the table in this matchup.

The main concern here is ownership—Tkachuk is expected to be rostered at 19%, making him one of the chalkier options on the slate. While that level of popularity isn’t ideal for tournaments, it’s justified given the elite combination of role, matchup, and consistent production. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in cash games or single-entry contests, Tkachuk makes sense as a core piece. For GPPs, consider differentiating elsewhere in your lineup to offset his higher ownership while still capitalizing on his strong outlook.

Honorable Mentions

• Kyle Connor ($7,900)
• Tage Thompson ($7,600)
• Clayton Keller ($6,700)

D Plays

Top Play: Jake Walman ($5,300)

Jake Walman ($5,300) is an intriguing DFS option tonight against Ottawa. His 11.06-point projection and strong 2.09x value make him one of the better mid-range defensemen on the slate, and his 10.82% optimal lineup rate underscores his upside in tournaments. Walman’s well-rounded game—highlighted by his ability to contribute in multiple stat categories like blocked shots and power-play production—gives him both a solid floor and ceiling. Facing an Ottawa team that allows its fair share of opportunities to opposing blueliners, this is a favorable spot for him to build on his impressive season.

The main concern here is ownership, as Walman projects to be rostered in 10.3% of lineups, which is high compared to the field average. While that level of chalk isn’t ideal for tournaments, it’s not necessarily unjustified given his role on San Jose’s top-four defense and his consistent ability to chip in across all categories. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in this price range, he’s a strong play with upside; however, if you’re looking for more leverage, pivoting to a lower-owned defenseman could make sense depending on your overall roster construction.

Honorable Mentions

• Rasmus Dahlin ($6,600)
• Evan Bouchard ($6,000)
• Mikhail Sergachev ($5,200)

G Plays

Top Play: Karel Vejmelka ($7,400)

Karel Vejmelka ($7,400) is an intriguing tournament option against New Jersey. While the Devils rank 14th in the league with 3.03 goals per game, Vejmelka has been in excellent form, posting a .942 save percentage over his last four starts and allowing just five goals on 86 shots during that span. His recent workload has been light, facing only 54 shots across his last three games, which could help him stay sharp against a high-paced Devils team. With a projection of 13.2 DK points and appearing in 13.5% of optimal lineups, he offers strong value at his salary.

At 8.8% ownership, Vejmelka will likely be one of the more popular goalie plays on this slate, but the chalk appears warranted given his recent performance and price point. While there’s some risk due to New Jersey’s offensive capabilities, his ability to steal games—combined with Utah’s solid defensive support—makes him a viable option in GPPs. If you’re comfortable eating some ownership at goalie, Vejmelka provides a solid mix of floor and upside for tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Jordan Binnington ($7,500)
• Connor Hellebuyck ($8,400)
• Linus Ullmark ($8,500)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!