FREE 03/03 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NHL slate offers a mix of high-scoring potential and strong goaltending matchups, giving us plenty to consider for DFS. The Sabres-Canadiens (6.5 total) and Sharks-Maple Leafs (6.5 total) stand out as the top targets for offense, with both games featuring weaker defensive setups and goalies who have struggled at times this season. On the flip side, the Lightning-Panthers game has a lower 5.5 total but features two elite netminders in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky, which could limit scoring opportunities.

The Islanders-Rangers matchup should draw attention in tournaments, with two world-class goalies—Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin—squaring off in a rivalry game that could go either way. Meanwhile, the Kings-Blackhawks (5.5 total) might be less popular but could provide sneaky value depending on how Spencer Knight holds up against a solid LA offense. With only five games on the schedule, finding the right mix of chalky plays from high-total games and contrarian options from tougher matchups will be key to building winning lineups.

Top Stacks

TOR PP1 ($25,700)

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner

The TOR PP1 stack of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner is projected for 47.0 points at a total salary of $25,700, resulting in a solid value of 1.83 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 19.0%, this stack is expected to be relatively popular but not overly chalky. Its optimal lineup rate of 14.3% indicates it has a slightly lower probability of appearing in the best lineup compared to its ownership level, suggesting moderate leverage concerns. As a high-salary power-play unit with elite scoring potential, this stack offers strong raw point upside but may carry diminished relative value in tournaments due to its ownership-to-optimal ratio.

FLA PP1 ($19,800)

Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Bennett

The FLA PP1 stack, consisting of Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Bennett, offers a strong combination of projected production and value. With a total salary of $19,800, the stack is projected for 35.8 points, translating to a solid value of 1.81 pts/$1000. Its average ownership sits at a manageable 9.0%, suggesting it won’t be overly popular in tournaments, while its optimal lineup rate of 14.1% indicates a favorable chance of appearing in top-performing lineups relative to its ownership. This combination of efficient projection, reasonable ownership, and strong optimal rate makes it an appealing option for DFS lineups seeking both upside and leverage.

BUF PP1 ($20,200)

Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch

The BUF PP1 stack of Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Alex Tuch offers a solid combination of projected production and value. With a total salary of $20,200, the stack is projected for 36.3 points, translating to a respectable value of 1.80 points per $1000. The average ownership sits at 11.6%, which is slightly below its optimal lineup rate of 13.4%, suggesting the stack may be marginally underutilized relative to its chances of being optimal. As a power-play unit (PP1), this stack benefits from concentrated scoring potential in high-leverage situations, making it an efficient option for both ceiling and value within its price range and ownership context.

C Plays

Top Play: Auston Matthews ($9,500)

Auston Matthews is in a prime spot tonight against the Sharks, who are allowing a league-worst 3.70 goals per game. Matthews has been on fire, riding a nine-game point streak with two goals and 11 assists over that stretch. His shot volume remains elite—he’s averaging just under five shots per game this season—and his power play role makes him especially dangerous against San Jose’s bottom-tier penalty kill. While his $9,500 salary is steep, the combination of floor (from shot volume) and ceiling (in this matchup) makes him worth the price in all formats.

The biggest question here is ownership. At nearly 30%, Matthews will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, but it feels justified given his consistency and upside in this matchup. He appears in over 26% of optimal lineups, further solidifying his status as one of the top plays tonight. Fading him in tournaments could differentiate your lineup, but keep in mind that passing on Matthews means missing out on arguably the best individual spot on the board. If you’re building around chalk, he’s an excellent foundation piece for cash games or GPPs alike.

Honorable Mentions

• Aleksander Barkov ($6,600)
• Sam Bennett ($5,900)
• John Tavares ($7,000)

W Plays

Top Play: Alex Tuch ($6,100)

Alex Tuch ($6,100) offers a strong blend of floor and upside in tonight’s matchup against Montreal. Skating on Buffalo’s top power-play unit and a productive top-six role, Tuch has been a consistent offensive contributor with 22 goals and 46 points in 58 games this season. Montreal’s defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in key metrics like shots allowed and penalty kill efficiency, making this a favorable spot for Tuch to leverage his power-play exposure. With a projection of 11.37 DraftKings points and appearing in 16.3% of optimal lineups, he profiles as one of the better mid-range options on the slate.

At 9.7% projected ownership, Tuch is moderately popular but not overly chalky, which makes him viable for both cash games and tournaments. His value rating of 1.86x at this salary reinforces his ability to return solid production without requiring an outlier performance. While his ownership is higher than field average, it’s not high enough to deter tournament players looking for leverage, especially given his ceiling potential in a matchup against a weaker defensive opponent. For those seeking balance between safety and upside, Tuch is an appealing option tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Artemi Panarin ($7,000)
• Anders Lee ($5,100)
• Tage Thompson ($7,600)

D Plays

Top Play: K’Andre Miller ($3,600)

K’Andre Miller ($3,600) offers strong value tonight in a matchup against the Islanders, projecting for 7.65 DraftKings points with a solid 2.13x value multiplier. His top-pairing role is key here, as injuries and trades have elevated his ice time and opportunities in all situations. While his offensive production has been inconsistent this season, he’s shown upside recently with four points in his last 10 games and continues to contribute across categories with hits, blocks, and shots on goal. At this salary, he doesn’t need to do much offensively to hit value, but the increased role gives him paths to exceed expectations.

At an expected ownership of 10.3%, Miller is moderately popular but still reasonable for tournaments given his Hero GPP rank of 1 and appearance in 12.88% of optimal lineups. The Islanders play a slower-paced game, which could limit overall scoring chances, but their offense has been vulnerable at times to mobile defensemen who can jump into the rush like Miller. While he’s not a flashy option, he provides a steady floor with upside potential at low cost, making him a versatile piece for both balanced builds and stars-and-scrubs lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• Rasmus Dahlin ($6,500)
• Victor Hedman ($5,500)
• Seth Jones ($5,000)

G Plays

Top Play: Igor Shesterkin ($8,200)

Igor Shesterkin ($8,200) stands out as a strong tournament option in Monday’s slate, facing the Islanders at home. While his season numbers—2.93 GAA and .904 save percentage—are underwhelming by his standards, the matchup is intriguing given the Islanders’ offensive struggles. New York’s cross-town rivals rank in the bottom third of the league in goals per game, providing Shesterkin with a favorable opportunity to rack up saves while limiting damage on the scoreboard. His projection of 13.4 DraftKings points and a solid value rating (1.64x) make him a viable play for DFS contests, especially considering his top tournament rank among goalies.

At an expected ownership of 9.6%, Shesterkin offers moderate leverage in tournaments without being overly chalky. He appears in 15.8% of optimal lineups, which underscores his upside potential despite recent inconsistency. If you’re looking for a goaltender with a path to both floor and ceiling, Shesterkin fits the bill at this salary, particularly given the Rangers’ defensive structure and his ability to steal games when dialed in. Just temper expectations slightly given his recent form and prioritize him more heavily in GPPs rather than cash games.

Honorable Mentions

• Spencer Knight ($8,000)
• Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,400)
• Ilya Sorokin ($7,200)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!