FREE 03/05 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NHL slate offers a balanced mix of matchups, with some intriguing DFS angles to consider. The Capitals visit the Rangers in a game featuring a 6.0 total, and Igor Shesterkin’s presence in net makes New York the clear defensive anchor of the night. Meanwhile, the Senators take on the Blackhawks in Chicago, where Linus Ullmark faces Arvid Soderblom in another 6.0-total matchup that could feature some sneaky offensive upside.

Out west, the Maple Leafs square off against the Golden Knights in Vegas (6.0 total), with Joseph Woll and Adin Hill confirmed as the goalies. Both teams have firepower up front, making this game one of the more stackable options on the slate. The late games feature lower totals (5.5 each), with Anaheim taking on Vancouver and St. Louis facing Los Angeles, but don’t overlook these spots entirely—especially if you’re looking for contrarian plays or value options.

Top Stacks

WSH PP1 ($18,500)

Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, Tom Wilson

The WSH PP1 stack of Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, and Tom Wilson offers a strong combination of projected points and value. At a total salary of $18,500, the stack is projected for 32.5 points, yielding a solid value of 1.76 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 13.5% and an optimal lineup rate of 14.0%, the stack provides slightly positive leverage in lineup construction, indicating its potential to outperform its ownership share relative to its chances of appearing in optimal lineups. As a power-play unit (PP1), this stack benefits from correlation, increasing its upside potential when goals are scored on the man advantage. Overall, the data suggests this stack is both efficient in cost and well-aligned with optimal lineup probabilities for tournaments.

LAK PP1 ($19,300)

Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere

The LAK PP1 stack of Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, and Alex Laferriere offers a solid combination of projected production and value for its $19,300 salary. With a projection of 32.5 points, this stack delivers a respectable value of 1.68 pts/$1000, making it an efficient option in terms of cost per point. Its average ownership of 9.8% positions it as moderately popular but not overly chalky, while its optimal lineup rate of 13.5% suggests it is outperforming its ownership in lineup simulations. This positive leverage indicates that the stack has the potential to provide strong upside relative to its expected usage in DFS contests, making it an appealing choice for GPP formats.

OTT PP1 ($22,500)

Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stuetzle, Jake Sanderson

The Ottawa PP1 stack of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stuetzle, and Jake Sanderson offers a strong projection of 37.2 points at a total salary of $22,500, resulting in a value of 1.65 pts/$1000. While the value is solid for a high-salary stack, its average ownership of 15.1% is moderately high relative to its optimal lineup rate of 12.8%, indicating slight inefficiency in terms of leverage. This makes the stack viable but not overly contrarian in large-field tournaments. As a power-play unit, it benefits from concentrated scoring upside, but the ownership-to-optimal disparity suggests it may be better suited for balanced builds rather than as a primary differentiator in contests with heavy competition.

C Plays

Top Play: Auston Matthews ($9,000)

Auston Matthews ($9,000) offers a compelling mix of floor and ceiling in tonight’s matchup against the Golden Knights. While Vegas is a strong defensive team, Matthews’ elite shot volume and power-play role make him a standout option regardless of opponent. He’s projected for 16.4 DK points with an 18.2% optimal lineup rate, which underscores his ability to deliver value even at this premium salary. With a nine-game point streak (two goals, 11 assists) and six or more shots in back-to-back games, his recent form is hard to ignore.

The 15.8% projected ownership is high relative to the field average but justified given his consistency and upside. Matthews ranks second in tournament leverage among all players on this slate, making him viable in both cash games and GPPs despite the chalkier ownership. The Golden Knights are no pushover defensively, but Toronto’s top line generates enough opportunities that Matthews can still dominate in this spot. If you’re willing to eat the chalk, he’s one of the safest high-priced plays available tonight with legitimate multi-point potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Jack Eichel ($7,800)
• Tomas Hertl ($5,700)
• Connor Bedard ($6,200)

W Plays

Top Play: Alex Ovechkin ($7,300)

Alex Ovechkin ($7,300) is in a strong spot tonight despite a tough road matchup against the Rangers. He’s been on an absolute tear with five goals in his last four games and continues to be the focal point of Washington’s offense. The Rangers have been solid defensively, but Ovechkin’s elite shot volume and power-play role give him both a high floor and massive ceiling. His 21.3% optimal lineup rate underscores his upside, making him one of the top tournament plays at wing. At 1.83x value, he’s priced fairly for his potential output.

The 19.1% projected ownership is on the higher side, but it’s justified given his recent form and historical consistency. While that level of chalk may make him less appealing in large-field GPPs, fading him comes with significant risk given how often he appears in optimal lineups. If you’re building around popular plays tonight, Ovechkin fits as a cornerstone piece with multi-goal upside, even in a challenging matchup at Madison Square Garden.

Honorable Mentions

• Brady Tkachuk ($8,400)
• Adrian Kempe ($7,200)
• Artemi Panarin ($6,900)

D Plays

Top Play: John Carlson ($5,200)

John Carlson stands out as a strong DFS option at $5,200, offering a solid mix of floor and ceiling. His recent form is noteworthy, with assists in eight straight games and a consistent role as Washington’s top power-play quarterback. The matchup against the Rangers isn’t ideal given New York’s defensive structure, but Carlson’s ability to contribute across categories—shots, blocked shots, and points—makes him less reliant on game environment. With a projection of 9.94 DraftKings points and appearing in 15.4% of optimal lineups, he provides excellent value at nearly 2x his salary.

The 14.6% ownership is on the higher side for tournaments, but it feels justified given his price point and recent production. While he may not offer significant leverage compared to lower-owned defensemen, Carlson’s consistency makes him a safe option to anchor your blue line in both cash games and GPPs. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk in this spot, his combination of reliability and upside makes him worth the investment despite the modestly tough matchup.

Honorable Mentions

• Jake Sanderson ($6,500)
• Alex Pietrangelo ($5,500)
• Quinn Hughes ($6,300)

G Plays

Top Play: Kevin Lankinen ($8,400)

Kevin Lankinen ($8,400) is in a favorable spot at home against Anaheim, a team that ranks near the bottom of the league in offensive production. While his recent outing against Seattle was rough, his prior three-game stretch showcased strong form with a .939 save percentage. Lankinen already handled the Ducks with ease earlier this season, allowing just one goal on 22 shots in a convincing win. At $8,400, he offers solid value (1.51x) and appears in 16.6% of optimal lineups, which reinforces his potential to deliver in this matchup.

The primary concern here is ownership—Lankinen’s projected 14.5% makes him one of the more popular goalie plays on the slate. While that level of chalk could be risky in tournaments, it’s not entirely unwarranted given the matchup and his proven ability to post strong performances against weaker opponents. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk at goalie, Lankinen is a viable option with both floor and upside in this spot. For those looking to differentiate, fading him may create leverage depending on how your lineup construction shakes out elsewhere.

Honorable Mentions

• Jordan Binnington ($7,400)
• Arvid Soderblom ($7,000)
• Charlie Lindgren ($7,500)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!