FREE 03/04 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 10-game NHL slate offers plenty of variety, with several high-total matchups and intriguing goalie situations to consider. The Sharks-Sabres (6.5 O/U) and Penguins-Avalanche (6.5 O/U) games stand out as prime spots for offense, while the Lightning hosting the Blue Jackets (6.5 O/U) could also see plenty of scoring opportunities. On the flip side, matchups like Flames-Flyers and Jets-Islanders both sit at 5.5 totals, signaling lower-event games that might be better for value plays or contrarian stacks.

Goaltending will play a key role tonight with some notable names in net, including Juuse Saros against Boston’s stingy offense and Connor Hellebuyck facing the Islanders’ low-scoring attack. Meanwhile, weaker defensive teams like San Jose (Luukkonen in net for Buffalo) and Anaheim (facing Edmonton’s firepower) could be worth targeting heavily for DFS lineups. With so many options on this slate, finding the right balance between chalky stacks and under-the-radar plays will be key to building a winning lineup.

Top Stacks

EDM PP1 ($23,000)

Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard

The EDM PP1 stack of Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Evan Bouchard offers a strong combination of ceiling and value with a projected 48.8 points at a total salary of $23,000, resulting in a solid 2.12 pts/$1000 value metric. Its average ownership is 12.9%, which is slightly lower than its optimal lineup rate of 14.4%, suggesting it provides slight leverage in tournaments while still being reasonably popular. The stack’s high projection underscores its potential as a top-tier option for DFS lineups, particularly given its role on the power play and the efficient price-to-production ratio reflected in its value score.

COL PP1 ($24,100)

Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas

The COL PP1 stack of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas carries a total salary of $24,100 with a strong projection of 48.2 points, translating to a solid value of 2.00 pts/$1000. Its average ownership sits at 12.1%, slightly exceeding its optimal lineup rate of 11.7%, suggesting it may be marginally over-owned relative to its chances of being the best stack. However, the high projection underscores its viability as a high-upside option in tournaments, particularly given the elite ceiling associated with power play production. This stack balances strong raw points potential with reasonable ownership in relation to its optimal rate, making it a competitive choice in DFS lineups.

BUF PP1 ($20,800)

Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch

The BUF PP1 stack of Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Alex Tuch offers a strong projection of 41.2 points at a total salary of $20,800, resulting in a solid value of 1.98 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 9.6%, this stack provides moderate leverage relative to its optimal lineup rate of 9.7%, suggesting it is being rostered appropriately compared to its likelihood of being in the best lineup. As a power-play unit stack, it consolidates high-upside players with correlated scoring potential, making it a viable option for DFS lineups while maintaining reasonable ownership levels.

C Plays

Top Play: Leon Draisaitl ($8,200)

Leon Draisaitl ($8,200) is in a prime spot tonight against the Anaheim Ducks, a team that has struggled defensively all season. Draisaitl enters the matchup on an 11-game point streak, racking up 16 points during that span, and his power play role only enhances his upside against Anaheim’s bottom-tier penalty kill. His combination of elite shot volume (200 shots in 60 games) and consistent production gives him one of the highest floors on the slate, while his ceiling is reflected in his strong projection (17.83 DK points) and second overall tournament rank. At 2.17x value and appearing in nearly 18% of optimal lineups, he’s worth the investment despite his elevated salary.

Ownership is a key consideration here, with Draisaitl projected to be rostered at 14.5%, well above the field average but not prohibitively chalky for such a high-upside player. Given his consistent production and favorable matchup, this level of ownership feels justified rather than excessive, especially in tournaments where he offers both stability and slate-breaking potential. While he’ll likely be popular in cash games as well, fading him entirely in GPPs could be risky given how often he appears in optimal builds. If you’re looking for exposure to Edmonton’s top-tier offense tonight, Draisaitl is an excellent starting point.

Honorable Mentions

• Nathan MacKinnon ($9,000)
• Connor McDavid ($8,500)
• Macklin Celebrini ($6,900)

W Plays

Top Play: David Pastrnak ($9,300)

David Pastrnak ($9,300) is in a prime spot tonight against Nashville, making him one of the top high-salary options on the slate. His 17-game point streak speaks for itself, with a staggering 33 points (15 goals, 18 assists) during that stretch. Nashville’s penalty kill ranks middle of the pack, but Pastrnak’s elite shot volume and power play role make him matchup-proof. With a projection of 19.2 DK points and appearing in 14% of optimal lineups, his combination of floor and ceiling is tough to ignore despite the hefty price tag.

At 11% ownership, Pastrnak will be one of the more popular plays on this slate, but it’s chalk that feels justified given his current form and upside. While his salary limits roster flexibility, his consistent production—bolstered by significant ice time and top-line usage—makes him worth prioritizing in both cash games and tournaments. If you’re fading him in GPPs, you’ll need to find unique ways to make up for his scoring potential elsewhere.

Honorable Mentions

• Nikita Kucherov ($8,800)
• Tage Thompson ($7,800)
• Alex Tuch ($6,200)

D Plays

Top Play: Cale Makar ($8,000)

Cale Makar ($8,000) is always a premier option on any slate, and tonight is no different. His matchup against Pittsburgh isn’t ideal given their solid defensive metrics, but Makar’s elite offensive production from the blue line keeps him firmly in play. With four assists in his last three games and 28 power-play points this season, his upside remains tied to Colorado’s lethal man advantage. At a projection of 15.5 DraftKings points and appearing in 14.1% of optimal lineups, Makar offers both a strong floor with his shot volume (190 shots this season) and blocked shots (97), as well as a ceiling few defensemen can match.

The 12.2% ownership projection makes him one of the more popular plays on the slate, but that chalk feels warranted given his consistent production and multi-point potential. While $8,000 is a steep price tag, his ability to contribute across all categories—shots, blocks, power-play points—gives him one of the highest floors at the position. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk in tournaments or building around him in cash games, Makar stands out as a reliable cornerstone for your lineup tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Rasmus Dahlin ($6,800)
• Evan Bouchard ($6,300)
• Zach Werenski ($7,000)

G Plays

Top Play: Filip Gustavsson ($7,600)

Filip Gustavsson ($7,600) is an intriguing goaltending option in tournaments, given his strong form and matchup against a middle-of-the-pack Seattle offense. The Kraken rank 16th in goals per game (2.93), and Gustavsson is coming off a stellar shutout against Boston, marking his fourth of the season. With a .914 save percentage and 2.61 GAA on the year, he’s proven capable of handling tough matchups, and his 12.3% optimal lineup rate suggests solid upside at this salary. His ability to post ceiling performances makes him a worthwhile consideration for GPPs.

At 6% projected ownership—high for a goalie—Gustavsson will be somewhat chalky compared to the field average but not prohibitively so. The elevated ownership appears justified given his tournament-leading projection (12.98 DK points) and value rating (1.71x). While Seattle has some offensive potential, Gustavsson’s recent form combined with the Wild’s defensive structure makes him a strong play with both floor and ceiling appeal. If you’re comfortable eating moderate chalk at goalie, he’s one of the better options on the slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Casey DeSmith ($8,000)
• Jeremy Swayman ($7,900)
• Connor Hellebuyck ($7,900)

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