FREE 1/22 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game NHL DFS slate presents intriguing options, particularly spotlighting the Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs game with its high over/under of 6.5. This matchup suggests a potential for offensive fireworks, making players from both teams valuable targets. The confirmed goalies, Elvis Merzlikins and Dennis Hildeby, have shown vulnerability this season, further emphasizing the scoring potential. With the slate’s relatively small size, diversifying lineups by incorporating players from games with a lower total, such as the Bruins at Devils, could provide a strategic edge, especially considering the solid goaltending matchup between Jeremy Swayman and Jacob Markstrom.

Top Stacks

TOR PP1 ($23,900)

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ first power-play unit (PP1) stack featuring Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner presents a high-upside option in NHL DFS tournaments due to its potent scoring ability and strong on-ice chemistry. With a combined salary of $23,900 and projected points at 47.7, this trio offers significant value at 1.99 pts/$1000, aligning well with their optimal rate of 23.5% versus an average ownership of 23.0%. This suggests that while they are popular picks, they are not over-owned relative to their chance of being in the optimal lineup. The high correlation between these players enhances their tournament viability as points from one player often directly benefit the others due to their involvement in scoring plays together on the power play. Considering the game environment where Toronto’s PP1 can exploit weaker penalty kill units, this stack has the potential for explosive performances, making it a compelling choice for tournament lineups seeking differentiation without straying too far from proven performers.

COL PP1 ($26,300)

Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen

The Colorado Avalanche’s first power-play unit (PP1) stack, featuring Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen, presents a high-upside option for NHL DFS tournaments. With a total salary of $26,300 and projected points at 43.8, this stack demonstrates significant scoring potential at a value of 1.67 pts/$1000, indicating efficiency in terms of cost-to-point expectation. The average ownership rate of 13.1% suggests moderate popularity among DFS players; however, the optimal rate of 17.2% indicates that this stack has the potential to outperform its expected ownership, making it an attractive leverage play in tournaments. The correlation between these three players is naturally strong given their roles on the power play, which can lead to concentrated scoring opportunities when Colorado is afforded man-advantage situations. Given their involvement in the team’s offensive production both at even strength and on the power play, selecting this PP1 stack can capitalize on game environments where scoring is anticipated to be high. This makes the COL PP1 stack not only viable but potentially game-changing in tournaments where differentiation from the field can be key to climbing leaderboards.

NJD PP1 ($21,800)

Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt

This NJD PP1 stack, featuring Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt, presents a high-upside option for DFS tournaments due to its favorable combination of projected points (39.4) and a reasonable total salary ($21,800), translating to a solid value of 1.81 pts/$1000. The average ownership rate of 16.3% suggests it is somewhat popular among players but not overly so, allowing for differentiation in large-field tournaments. The optimal rate of 16.9% indicates this stack is likely to be a competitive choice relative to other options. Given the players involved are part of the team’s first power-play unit, there’s inherent correlation in their scoring opportunities, especially in matchups conducive to drawing penalties. Their combined talents and roles amplify the potential for multi-point outings in a favorable game environment, making this stack particularly appealing for tournament viability where leveraging correlated plays can lead to higher scores.

C Plays

Top Play: Auston Matthews ($9,500)

Auston Matthews enters tonight’s DFS slate as a high-priority option, riding a hot streak that has seen him score in four consecutive games, amassing five goals over that span, and totaling eight goals in his last nine appearances since coming back from an injury. This prolific scoring run, highlighted by a goal and an assist in a recent 5-3 victory over Tampa Bay, underscores Matthews’ elite status and ability to contribute heavily to fantasy lineups. His recent performance suggests that any prior health concerns have been thoroughly dispelled, making him a formidable presence on the ice. Matthews’ knack for finding the back of the net, coupled with his ability to contribute across multiple categories (as evidenced by a shorthanded goal against the Canadiens), adds a layer of reliability and upside to his DFS profile.

The matchup against Columbus Blue Jackets (CBJ) presents a favorable game environment for Matthews, given the disparity in team strengths and his role as a central figure in the Toronto Maple Leafs’ offensive machinery. With a salary set at $9,500 and a projection of 19.1 DK points at a strong value of 2.0x, Matthews is expected to deliver substantial fantasy output. His Hero GPP Rank of 2 and appearance in 35.6% of optimal lineups underscore the high regard in which he’s held among DFS circles, though his expected ownership at 26.5% suggests he will be a popular pick. Despite the relatively high ownership, Matthews’ recent form combined with the matchup against CBJ makes him an excellent tournament play. His ability to exceed projections and contribute significantly in key categories provides the upside necessary for GPP success, making him a compelling choice for those looking to capitalize on current trends and game dynamics.

Honorable Mentions

• Nathan MacKinnon ($10,000)
• Jack Hughes ($9,000)
• Nico Hischier ($6,500)

W Plays

Top Play: Bobby McMann ($4,000)

Bobby McMann has shown a notable uptick in his performance recently, breaking out of a six-game scoreless slump with a goal and two assists over his last two games for the Toronto Maple Leafs. This resurgence was highlighted in a recent match against the Canadiens where McMann played a pivotal role, contributing a goal and an assist in a significant 7-3 victory. His ability to generate shots on goal, coupled with his involvement in both scoring and physical play (evidenced by his five shots, two blocks, and one hit in the last game), indicates a rising momentum that could be crucial for DFS considerations.

Facing off against CBJ in tonight’s game presents a favorable matchup for McMann, considering his budget-friendly salary of $4,000 and a strong value projection at 2.4x with an expected 9.5 DraftKings (DK) points. His appearance in 14.6% of optimal lineups juxtaposed with a high expected ownership of 29.3% suggests that while he is a popular pick, his recent performance and the game environment make him an attractive tournament play. The matchup against CBJ, typically seen as a weaker opponent, might provide McMann with more opportunities to continue his scoring trend, making him a viable option for those looking to capitalize on an in-form player at a reasonable salary. Given these factors, McMann appears to be a solid tournament play for tonight’s slate, offering both upside and value.

Honorable Mentions

• William Nylander ($6,900)
• David Pastrnak ($8,500)
• Mitch Marner ($7,500)

D Plays

Top Play: Ivan Provorov ($3,200)

Ivan Provorov has recently shown a notable uptick in his offensive production, making him an intriguing consideration for tonight’s DFS slate. With a second three-assist game of his career recorded on January 4, 2025, against the Blues, Provorov has tallied four assists over his last two appearances. This surge in point production mirrors his output from the 2023-24 season where he finished with 32 points. However, it’s important to note that while his offensive contributions are on the rise, Provorov’s defensive stats, including blocked shots and shots on goal, are experiencing a decline. With just 50 blocked shots in 39 games so far, he’s on track for his lowest total in that category across his nine-year career. This decrease in secondary stats is a critical consideration, as it suggests a shift in his overall fantasy production profile.

Facing off against Toronto, Provorov’s matchup presents both opportunities and challenges. The Maple Leafs are known for their high-scoring offense, which could lead to increased defensive responsibilities and potentially more blocked shots for Provorov, somewhat mitigating his recent decline in that area. However, Toronto’s offensive prowess also poses a risk to Provorov’s plus-minus rating. Priced at $3,200 and projected for 7.1 DK points with a strong value of 2.2x, Provorov appears as an attractive value play, especially being ranked 1 in Hero GPP Rank and appearing in 12.3% of optimal lineups. Despite an expected ownership of 9.7%, his recent performance and the game’s environment position him as a good tournament play, offering a blend of upside and value that could differentiate lineups in large-field GPPs.

Honorable Mentions

• Cale Makar ($8,000)
• Zach Werenski ($9,300)
• Josh Morrissey ($5,700)

G Plays

Top Play: Darcy Kuemper ($7,400)

Darcy Kuemper enters tonight’s contest against the Florida Panthers as a notable DFS option, particularly given his recent form and the matchup at hand. Kuemper has compiled a strong 13-4-5 record this season, boasting a 2.10 GAA and a .920 save percentage over 23 outings. His performance has been solid, although he faced a minor setback in his last start, stopping 18 of 21 shots in a 4-2 loss to the Kraken. Despite this, Kuemper’s overall season metrics suggest he’s a reliable option in net, and his ability to bounce back after a loss, especially having been rested during the Kings’ 5-1 loss to Pittsburgh, adds to his appeal for tonight’s game.

From a DFS perspective, Kuemper’s $7,400 salary against Florida is attractive, considering he’s projected for 13.2 DK points with a strong value at 1.8x. His Hero GPP Rank of 1 signifies his potential as a top tournament play, with an appearance rate in 20.4% of optimal lineups and an expected ownership of 15.8%, indicating a good balance between popularity and potential for differentiation. The matchup against the Panthers, who rank ninth in goals per game, will be challenging but also offers Kuemper the opportunity for a high save volume, which could translate to substantial fantasy points. Given these factors, Kuemper represents a compelling tournament play for DFS tonight, combining the potential for a high-performance game with a relatively moderate ownership rate.

Honorable Mentions

• Jacob Markstrom ($7,900)
• Connor Hellebuyck ($7,600)
• Dennis Hildeby ($8,200)