Lightning–Avalanche and Canadiens–Blackhawks both carry 6.5 totals tonight. The Canadiens bring 3.6 implied goals and a 60% win chance against the Blackhawks, and the later game sits close, with the Avalanche at 3.3 implied goals and the Lightning at 3.2. The two-game slate locks Friday, October 23 at 8:00 PM ET with Canadiens–Blackhawks, and Lightning–Avalanche starts an hour later.
Jacob Fowler (DK $7,800) projects in net for the Canadiens against Spencer Knight (DK $7,600) of the Blackhawks. Fowler is the goalie to roster, with a 10.4 projection and a 22.7% optimal rate behind a team 60% to win. Andrei Vasilevskiy (DK $7,400) and MacKenzie Blackwood (DK $8,000) are the projected goalies in Lightning–Avalanche, where two of the three Stack IQ stacks sit.
Injury Watch
- Nick Suzuki (Canadiens, out)
- Ivan Demidov (Canadiens, out)
- Bowen Byram (DK $4,000) (Blackhawks, day-to-day)
- Nicolas Roy (Avalanche, out)
- Georgii Merkulov (Avalanche, out)
- Yanni Gourde (Lightning, out)
- Zachary L'Heureux (Avalanche, out)
- Florian Xhekaj (Canadiens, out)
Top Stacks
MTL PP1 vs CHI (DK $26,400)
Players: Cole Caufield (DK $7,500); Juraj Slafkovsky (DK $6,100); Noah Dobson (DK $4,500); Lane Hutson (DK $5,800); Oliver Kapanen (DK $2,500)
The Canadiens PP1 stack projects 50.9 points with 35.5% average ownership, a 28.1% optimal rate and 2.07 value. It is Stack IQ's top stack, and it rides the Canadiens' 3.6 implied goals and 60% win chance. Slafkovsky scored 15.0 on October 20 against the Sharks with an 11.7 average over his last three. Hutson posted 14.9 the same night on a 13.3 average over his last three.
COL PP1 vs TBL (DK $28,200)
Players: Nathan MacKinnon (DK $9,200); Cale Makar (DK $7,200); Nazem Kadri (DK $5,100); Jaden Schwartz (DK $3,500); T.J. Hughes (DK $3,200)
The Avalanche PP1 stack projects 49.6 points with 26.2% average ownership, a 25.4% optimal rate and 1.80 value. The Avalanche carry 3.3 implied goals and a 53% win chance, and the unit's ceiling sits at 116.7. MacKinnon and Makar hold the top projections at center and defense. Hughes rounds out the unit from line 3 with a 9.1 average over his last three.
TBL PP1 vs COL (DK $27,600)
Players: Nikita Kucherov (DK $8,700); Jake Guentzel (DK $6,200); Brayden Point (DK $5,600); Anthony Cirelli (DK $4,600); Charle-Edouard D'Astous (DK $2,500)
The Lightning PP1 stack projects 46.8 points with 17.0% average ownership, a 20.1% optimal rate and 1.77 value, with a leverage of 3.1. The Lightning carry 3.2 implied goals in a 6.5-total game. Cirelli scored 20.0 on October 20 against the Golden Knights with a 9.3 average over his last three. Guentzel adds a leverage of 4.2 from line 2.
Center
Nathan MacKinnon (DK $9,200)
MacKinnon skates on the Avalanche's line 1 and PP1 against the Lightning, and he is the popular pay-up at center. He projects 15.2 with the top optimal rate at the position, 39.1%.
MacKinnon put up 44.3 on October 16 against the Penguins, then 1.5 on October 19 against the Flyers and 11.8 on October 20 against the Devils. His 32.2 ceiling tops the centers.
Nazem Kadri (DK $5,100)
Kadri plays PP1 beside Nathan MacKinnon (DK $9,200) for the Avalanche, from line 2, against the Lightning. He is a popular center with a 28.6% optimal rate and 1.85 value, and he scored 8.0 on October 20 against the Devils.
Brayden Point (DK $5,600)
Point is the leverage center in Lightning–Avalanche, 16.6% owned with a 19.8% optimal rate on the Lightning's line 2 and PP1 against the Avalanche. His leverage of 3.2 makes him a spot to let Build & Sim size, and his 23.3 ceiling ranks third at center.
Wing
Oliver Kapanen (DK $2,500)
The field builds around Kapanen, who skates on the Canadiens' line 1 and PP1 against the Blackhawks. He projects 7.3 with the top optimal rate at wing, 37.5%.
The cheapest seat on the Canadiens' PP1 belongs to Kapanen, and his 2.92 value tops the wings. He returned from a lower-body injury and carries a 4.4 average over his last two games.
Cole Caufield (DK $7,500)
Caufield is a popular wing on the Canadiens' line 1 and PP1 against the Blackhawks, with a 34.8% optimal rate. He scored 27.5 on October 17 against the Sabres, then 18.0 on October 20 against the Sharks, with a 15.2 average over his last three.
Nikita Kucherov (DK $8,700)
Kucherov is in form on the Lightning's line 1 and PP1 against the Avalanche, with a 27.9% optimal rate. He scored 30.5 on October 17 against the Canucks, then 24.5 on October 20 against the Golden Knights, a 23.3 average over his last three.
Defense
Noah Dobson (DK $4,500)
Dobson gives the Canadiens' PP1 a mid-priced defenseman against the Blackhawks. He is a popular play with the top optimal rate at the position, 38.6%, and he projects 10.2, close to Lane Hutson (DK $5,800) at 10.1.
Dobson's 2.27 value comes with a 23.4 ceiling from line 1. He scored 6.0 on October 20 against the Sharks and carries an 11.8 average over his last three.
Cale Makar (DK $7,200)
Makar set up two goals against the Devils on October 20, a 22.7 game, for a 14.8 average over his last three, and he carries a 29.5% optimal rate. He holds the top projection at defense at 12.3 and is a popular play on the Avalanche's line 1 and PP1 against the Lightning.
Mike Matheson (DK $3,500)
Matheson was cleared on October 23 to return from a lower-body injury for the game against the Blackhawks, and he skates on the Canadiens' line 3 and PP2. He is 21.2% owned with a 27.3% optimal rate, and his leverage of 6.1 tops the defensemen.
Goalie
Jacob Fowler (DK $7,800)
The Canadiens are 60% to win, and Fowler was named their starter against the Blackhawks on October 23. He projects 10.4, third in net, with a 25.3 ceiling and a 22.7% optimal rate.
Fowler, a popular play in net, scored 11.6 on October 17 against the Sabres and carries a 16.0 average over his last three, above his 12.0 season average. His 1.33 value sits third among goalies.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Lightning–Avalanche, with Nikita Kucherov (DK $8,700) as its default target and Nathan MacKinnon (DK $9,200) as the main Avalanche play, and it likes Canadiens skaters in the other game. It splits on which side wins Lightning–Avalanche, and it keys on reports that Oliver Kapanen (DK $2,500) moves to the Canadiens' first line and top power play and that Mike Matheson (DK $3,500) returns from injury. DFS Hero has Kapanen at a 37.5% optimal rate and Matheson at 27.3%. The DFS Hero numbers agree on Kucherov, 23.5% owned with a 27.9% optimal rate, and on MacKinnon, whose 39.1% optimal rate is the top mark at center. Stack IQ also backs the Canadiens' PP1, with a 28.1% optimal rate.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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