FREE 1/22 PGA Cheat Sheet: Farmers Insurance Classic DFS Plays

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Sepp Straka was your American Express champion, besting Justin Thomas by 2 strokes. He cruised rather easily, making a couple of bogeys in the last 4 holes to make the final margin appear close. In reality, the winner was never in doubt on the back 9. It’s the third PGA Tour victory for the ascending Austrian. A first-time Ryder Cup player in 2023, Straka seems to lack only an above-average around the green game to become a consistent top-20 player in the world. Sam Ryder was our lone close call of the wagers portion, making two double bogeys on the back 9 Sunday to fall out of the top 20 (recommended at 5.5/1)

As for the DK picks from last week, we had a very high peak, with Sepp Straka written up at $7,600 before winning the event. As noted, you never leave the table on a heater. We’ll get to some players on a ball-striking heater to consider at Torrey Pines this week. Cantlay finished T-5 at $9,600 and was the other player to pair with Justin Thomas in the $9,000+ range. This event felt like a minor-league rehab stint for a major-league pitcher for these two Americans. Nonetheless, still nice to see them play well ahead of the more difficult events that will feature strong fields. Sam Ryder, written about in the sleepers portion last week, was a good value play at $6,700 while finishing T-41. Tom Hoge at $7,900 was solid with a T-29 finish, continuing his steady play. Sungjae Im shockingly missed the cut, shooting 77 (+5) on Thursday before fighting back to within a couple strokes of the rare Saturday cut. Kitayama, Meissner, Campbell, Burns, Si Woo Kim were all players written about who made the cut but underwhelmed overall. We’ve learned, and we’re moving on to the Farmers Insurance Open. The Tournament will be played on Torrey Pines North for 1/2 rounds before the cut; then, both weekend rounds will be played on the South course. Most famous for being the site of Tiger Woods’ dramatic 2008 US Open victory on a broken leg, Torrey South will provide players with a strong test of their games.

NOTE: Event starts on Wednesday instead of Thursday and will finish on Saturday to avoid competing with NFL conference championship games for ratings on Sunday.

Farmers Insurance notes:

• Even ranked 9th most difficult on tour
• Winning score was -13 (Matthieu Pavon)
• Driving accuracy down 4% from tour average
• 38% of approach shots were struck from 150-200 yards
• Average penalty for fairway missed
• Winning score between -13 & -15 each of the last 5 years
• 7/12 finishing top-10 & ties in 2024 averaged over 1.0 SG Approach per round

Torrey Pines South:

The course measures out at just under 7,800 yards, playing to a par 72. It sits up on the cliffs just north of San Diego, providing some great views. The course will also host the Genesis in February instead of Riviera CC, with Los Angeles still recovering from the recent wildfires. There is only one water hazard on the course, the man-made pond which protects the 18th green. The difficulties lie in the rough, narrow fairways and the overall length. The course is very long by tour standards, leading to those longer approach shots, and tends to feature firm green conditions as well. This is a big golf course that will favor the long-hitters. The par 4s are long and difficult, 3/4 par 3 holes measure over 200 yards, and even the par 5s feature two over 600 yards. Shorter hitters can have good rounds, but the length of the course will expose them over the 36 hole weekend. Featuring Poa Annua greens, known for getting bumpy in the afternoon, it’ll favor those with more experience on these West Coast green surfaces.

IMPORTANT STATS:

Strokes Gained: Approach

SG: Off-the-tee

Driving Distance

SG: Putting on Poa

SG: Par 72 courses

HORSES FOR THE COURSE(S):

Tony Finau $10,200: +1.69 Total SG/round. T-2, CUT, CUT, T-9, T-6 in last five starts at Torrey. . Will be less rostered than other high-priced players due to recent form. Length of course suits his game as he’s an elite approach player from the common distance of 150-200 yards.

Will Zalatoris $9,500: +1.72 Total SG/round. T-7, CUT, 2, CUT, T-13. Gained 20lbs of muscle in the offseason and swing has reaped the benefits. Plays very well at difficult courses. Buy low on Willy Z before his price goes up.

Joseph Bramlett $6,900: +1.02 Total SG/round. T-18, DNP, T-13, T-67, T-25 last 5 starts at Torrey. Relies on strong tee-to-green game and knows Poa greens. Grew up in California, went to Stanford. First start of year being here is strategic.

Taylor Montgomery $6,500: +1.01 SG over expected/round, +.91 True Strokes Gained at Torrey. T-57, T-11, T-31, T-13 in his 4 starts at Torrey. Phenomenal putter finishing #1 in SG:Putting in 2024. Gained 1.96/round in 2024 at this event. Has made both cuts so far in 2025. Fighting to regain full PGA Tour status so should be plenty motivated.

BEST VALUES:

Sungjae Im $10,000: +1.00 Value Rating. Missed cut last week. Missed cut here last year, but finished T-4 & T-6 previous two seasons. Accurate driver, very good approach player. Wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him bounce back with a good finish. Lowest projected rostership % of the top 4.

Max Greyserman $9,700: +.64 Value Rating. Rising star has had elite ball-striking week at Am Ex last week.If added to his strong putting, could quickly become a top-10 PGA Tour player. Long hitter off the tee. Rostership % projection is high, so balance out the lineup with lower projected players if you click his name. Second full PGA Tour season, so the weekly routine has been fine-tuned, and comfort level increased.

Taylor Pendrith $8,900: +.85 Value Rating. The long-hitting Canuck is a strong bet to play well. Finished T-9 last year despite gaining 0 strokes on approach. Gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach in opening event at the Sentry. Putting became a consistent strength in 2024. Highly projected on rosters, but is a solid cash game play and pairs well with lower rostered players in GPPs.

Niklas Norgaard $7,600: +.84 Value Rating. Another long hitter, the Dane is coming fresh off a T-4 finish in Dubai last week, where he gained 1.45 strokes per round off the tee. No course history here, but should be a great fit for how he plays. Should be hungry for another good finish to get world-ranking points to earn his first major championship start. Potential Ryder Cup debutant in 2025 could earn PGA Tour card similar to Tom Mckibbon in 2024.

Kevin Yu $7.100: +.79 Value Rating. Hits it long, gains strokes off the tee consistently. Finished T-6 in 2024 at Farmers. Gained strokes across the board last week but missed cut. OTT game was strong at Sentry, gaining 1.62 strokes per round. High ball flight will suit him well coming into the firm greens.

Frankie Capan III $7,100: +.60 Value Rating. I’ve been eager to write this KFT grad up, and this week seems like the perfect time to do so. Long hitter with a well-rounded game, has made first two cuts with a T-12 last week. Ranks 6th on tour in average ball speed with driver. Approach play and around the greens seem to be his strengths. Should pair well with his long drives, and the short game could save him when greens are missed. Won last event before KFT Tour Championship, then finished T-5 to validate and earn his PGA Tour card. Riding high, and confidence is key at a difficult test like Torrey Pines South.

Vince Whaley $6,800: +.39 Value Rating. Gained about 1 stroke tee-to-green per round last week. Awful week on the greens, but historically gains strokes on the greens more often than not. Had T-16, T-8, T-5 finishes over a 4 tourney stretch in the fall. Ranks 8th in course fit based on DG rankings. Doesn’t have to dig deep in the memory banks to recall good form.

SLEEPERS AND NEWCOMERS:

Michael Thorbjornsen $7,400: This is a bet on talent and course fit. Elite distance, great pedigree having grabbed his card via PGA Tour U. Played collegiately at Stanford, so he’s familiar with this style of golf and these poa annua greens. Big golf course favors his game. Major upside for this price.

Alex Smalley $7,300: Smalley is coming off 11th place and T-16 finishes in his first two starts of the year. Impressively, has gained strokes in all 4 major stat categories in both events. This shows he’s not depending on one part of his game to sustain good play. Has made 2/3 cuts at Torrey, including a T-37 finish last season. Love the value here.

Harris English $7,300: The seasoned vet led the field last week in SG: OTT. Plays difficult courses well historically. Much better target at events like this one over birdie-fests. Fantastic bet to make the cut. Good pivot from players projected to be more popular to click this week.

Trey Mullinax $6,600: Ranked 7th on DG course fit tool, the talented bomber could be regaining some form. After bursting onto the scene with a top-10 at the 2017 US Open, the road has been a rocky one for Mullinax. However, there are a few things to like here. He’s a great course fit due to his power. Finished T-31 at this event last year, and T-25 in 2019. Last week at Am Ex, he placed T-19 and gained strokes in all 4 major stat categories. He’s always had the talent. The focus and work ethic just may finally have been added to the mix.

WORTHY OF A WAGER:

Top 40:

Frankie Capan +130

Trey Mullinax +190

Top 20:

Johnny Vegas +1400

Michael Thorbjornsen +1400

Top 5:

Stephan Jaeger +1200

Patrick Fishburn +1600

Outright winners:

Will Zalatoris +2200

Stephan Jaeger +6000

Frankie Capan +11000

Taylor Pendrith Top Canadian: -140

Let’s have a week!