FREE 02/11 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game NBA slate offers a mix of intriguing opportunities for DFS. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET, but the real fireworks are expected in the two high-total matchups: MEM at PHX (246.0) and NYK at IND (240.5). Both games project as fast-paced environments loaded with fantasy potential, making them prime spots to target your lineups. The other two games have lower totals, so how you balance exposure across these contests could make all the difference.

With just four games on the schedule, ownership will likely condense around those high-total matchups, especially given their late-night hammer appeal. That said, there’s always value in finding under-the-radar plays from less popular games if you’re willing to take a risk. Building smartly around pace and game environment will be key tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

TOR @ PHI (O/U: 224.5, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: TOR (12th) vs PHI (28th)
• Off Eff: TOR (24th) vs PHI (19th)
• Def Eff: TOR (26th) 🎯 vs PHI (23rd)

NYK @ IND (O/U: 240.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: NYK (25th) vs IND (7th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (3rd) 🔥 vs IND (10th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NYK (20th) vs IND (21st)

DET @ CHI (O/U: 237.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: DET (15th) vs CHI (3rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DET (16th) vs CHI (15th)
• Def Eff: DET (12th) vs CHI (25th) 🎯

MEM @ PHX (O/U: 246.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs PHX (24th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (5th) 🔥 vs PHX (8th)
• Def Eff: MEM (6th) vs PHX (27th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jalen Brunson ($8,400)

Jalen Brunson ($8,400) is in an excellent spot tonight against the Pacers, a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the league and struggles defensively. Indiana’s uptempo style creates more possessions, which is ideal for Brunson, who’s projected to play 37 minutes and produce 45.2 DK points (5.4x value). Over his last five games, he’s averaged 30.6 points and 8.4 assists while logging heavy minutes, showing both a solid floor and a high ceiling—evidenced by his massive 68.5 DK-point performance against Houston earlier this month. With a strong 1.22 FPPM rate and a favorable matchup where defensive resistance is minimal, he’s in prime position to deliver another big night.

At 21.5% projected ownership, Brunson will likely be moderately chalky, but it feels justified given his role as the Knicks’ offensive engine and the game environment against Indiana. The Pacers allow plenty of fantasy production to opposing guards, and Brunson ranks first in tournament GPP rank while appearing in nearly 30% of optimal lineups—indicating strong leverage potential even with some ownership attached. His combination of scoring upside, consistent usage, and matchup appeal makes him an excellent target for both cash games and tournaments on this slate.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($10,500)
• Immanuel Quickley ($6,100)
• Scottie Barnes ($9,200)

SG - Grayson Allen ($4,900)

Grayson Allen ($4,900) stands out as a strong value play tonight against Memphis. With a projection of 27.5 DK points and a solid 5.6x value, Allen is in an excellent position to deliver at his price point. His recent performance against Utah—48.3 DK points in 36 minutes—shows his upside when he gets extended run, and he’s projected for another 29 minutes tonight. Memphis has been vulnerable on the perimeter, ranking bottom-10 in opponent three-point percentage, which plays directly into Allen’s strengths as a sharpshooter (48% from deep over his last seven games). Add in his ability to contribute across multiple stat categories (rebounds, assists, steals), and there’s plenty of potential here.

At 25.5% projected ownership, Allen will be one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it’s justified given his price and role in this matchup. He appears in nearly 24% of optimal lineups for good reason: he offers both ceiling and consistency at sub-$5k pricing. While fading high ownership can be tempting in tournaments, Allen’s combination of opportunity and efficiency makes him hard to pass up tonight. If you’re looking for differentiation elsewhere, pivoting at higher price points might make more sense than avoiding this clear value spot.

More SG Plays:

• Desmond Bane ($7,500)
• Coby White ($6,700)
• Gradey Dick ($4,300)

SF - Josh Hart ($7,600)

Josh Hart ($7,600) is in a prime spot tonight against the Pacers, and while his 40.4% projected ownership might feel steep, it’s hard to argue against the chalk here. He’s playing massive minutes (38+ in three of his last four games), and his 1.03 FPPM production combined with a 5.17x value projection makes him one of the slate’s most reliable mid-tier options. Indiana ranks near the bottom of the league defensively, particularly against versatile wings like Hart, which only enhances his ceiling in this matchup. With a solid projection of 39.3 DK points and a Boom% north of 22%, he has both floor and upside to justify his price tag.

The game environment also works in Hart’s favor, as the Pacers play at one of the fastest paces in the league, creating additional opportunities for rebounds and secondary stats that fuel Hart’s DFS value. While his recent stat lines haven’t been flashy outside of that triple-double against the Lakers, he’s consistently hovering around mid-30s DK points with minimal turnovers, making him an appealing option even at high ownership. Given how often he appears in optimal lineups (23.08%), fading him feels unnecessarily risky unless you’re building contrarian GPP lineups. Sometimes chalk is just good chalk—this feels like one of those nights for Hart.

More SF Plays:

• Coby White ($6,700)
• Scottie Barnes ($9,200)
• Ausar Thompson ($5,100)

PF - Pascal Siakam ($7,700)

Pascal Siakam is a solid play at $7,700 tonight, offering a strong combination of value and upside. His 1.25 FPPM production is reliable, and with 33 projected minutes against the Knicks, he has plenty of opportunity to deliver on his 41.1 DK point projection (5.34x value). The Knicks are a tough defensive team overall, but they’ve struggled at times against versatile forwards like Siakam who can score inside and out while contributing across multiple categories. Siakam has also been in excellent form recently, averaging 22.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists over his last 17 games, with multiple ceiling performances in that stretch.

At 23.1% projected ownership, Siakam will be moderately chalky but not overwhelming compared to the field average of 9.8%. This level of ownership feels justified given his tournament-leading GPP rank and appearance in nearly 25% of optimal lineups on the slate. While he’s not a contrarian play by any means, his ability to consistently deliver strong performances makes him a safe yet high-upside option for both cash games and tournaments. If you’re looking for a dependable mid-range forward with legitimate ceiling potential, Siakam fits the bill perfectly tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Kevin Durant ($9,000)
• Santi Aldama ($4,600)
• Matas Buzelis ($4,800)

C - Jalen Duren ($6,600)

Jalen Duren is one of the most intriguing plays on tonight’s slate at $6,600. His 1.3 FPPM production and projected 28 minutes give him a rock-solid floor, while his ability to hit a ceiling is clear—he’s posted 40+ DK points in two of his last three games, including a dominant 46.3 DK point performance against this same Chicago team just last week. The Bulls rank middle-of-the-pack defensively but struggle on the glass, which bodes well for Duren’s rebounding upside. With a projection of 36.26 DK points (5.49x value), he’s priced fairly but offers strong potential to exceed expectations in this matchup.

The main concern here is ownership, as Duren is projected to be rostered by 33.4% of the field—a significant number compared to the average player on the slate. However, that chalk feels justified given his recent double-double consistency (10 in his last 12 games) and his role as Detroit’s primary interior presence. He also appears in nearly 27% of optimal lineups, so fading him could leave you behind if he delivers another ceiling game. If you’re playing tournaments, consider pairing him with lower-owned pivots elsewhere, but Duren should be firmly in your player pool tonight given his combination of price, production, and matchup upside.

More C Plays:

• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400)
• Joel Embiid ($10,000)
• Kevin Durant ($9,000)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!