FREE 02/12 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

It’s a massive 14-game NBA slate tonight, and there’s no shortage of intriguing DFS spots to break down. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET, with two games standing out as the clear frontrunners for high-scoring potential. The Pacers-Wizards matchup carries a slate-high total of 242.5, promising plenty of pace and offensive upside, while the Hawks-Knicks game isn’t far behind at 241.0. These are the kind of environments that can drive big fantasy performances, so they’ll likely draw plenty of attention from the field.

With such a large slate, finding the right balance between chalky plays in those high-total games and sneaky value elsewhere will be key. Late swap opportunities are limited since all games start within an hour of each other, so locking in strong core plays early will be crucial. Whether you’re stacking up one of the top totals or taking a contrarian approach in slower-paced matchups, there’s plenty to work with tonight.

PG - Anfernee Simons ($6,300)

Anfernee Simons ($6,300) is a solid mid-range option tonight in a matchup against Denver. He’s projected for 34.7 DK points and offers strong value at 5.5x with a Boom% of nearly 30%, making him an appealing tournament play. Simons has been consistent lately, averaging 24.3 points, 6 assists, and 3 three-pointers over his last three games while logging heavy minutes (33+ in each). Denver’s defense isn’t as imposing as their reputation suggests, ranking middle-of-the-pack against guards this season, and with Portland likely playing from behind, Simons should see plenty of usage to keep them competitive.

At just under 10% ownership, Simons is one of the more popular plays on the slate, but the chalk seems justified given his recent production and price point. His ability to contribute across multiple categories (points, assists, threes) gives him a steady floor with upside if his shot falls efficiently like it did against Sacramento earlier this week (46.5 DK points). While he’s not without risk—his last outing against Denver was underwhelming—it’s hard to ignore his combination of opportunity, role in the offense, and potential ceiling at this salary.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($10,400)
• Jalen Brunson ($8,400)
• Trae Young ($9,600)

SG - Nick Smith Jr. ($4,500)

Nick Smith Jr. ($4,500) stands out as a strong value play tonight with his projected 26.1 DK points translating to a solid 5.8x return on his salary. He’s locked into significant minutes (33+ in four of his last five games), and his recent performances show he’s capable of exceeding value, posting between 27-35 DK points in four straight outings before a quieter game against Brooklyn. His matchup against Orlando isn’t the easiest—Orlando is a respectable defensive team—but Smith’s ability to contribute across multiple categories and shoot efficiently from deep (53.6% over the last four games) keeps him firmly in play for GPPs, especially at this price point.

The main concern here is ownership, as Smith is projected to be rostered by 27.6% of the field, making him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. While that level of ownership might scare some off, it feels justified given his consistent minutes and upside relative to salary. If you’re playing single entry or small-field contests, he’s tough to fade due to his strong floor and ceiling combination at this price tag. However, in large-field tournaments, it might make sense to pivot elsewhere if you’re looking for lower-owned leverage plays with similar upside in hopes of gaining an edge on the field.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,500)
• Trey Murphy III ($8,200)
• Jalen Green ($7,200)

SF - PJ Washington ($7,000)

PJ Washington ($7,000) is one of the most intriguing plays on tonight’s slate, but his questionable status due to an ankle sprain complicates things. If he suits up, the matchup against Golden State is appealing given his ability to stretch the floor and contribute across multiple categories. With a projection of 39.9 DK points and a 5.7x value rating, he’s priced fairly for his upside, especially considering his strong 1.14 FPPM production and projected 35 minutes of playing time. The Warriors’ pace and defensive vulnerabilities in the frontcourt provide a solid foundation for Washington to hit his ceiling if active.

However, at 34.2% projected ownership, Washington will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While there’s no denying his strong metrics—ranked third in tournament playability with a 30.6% Boom rate—it’s worth weighing whether this level of popularity leaves enough room for differentiation in GPPs. If he sits, Dallas’ depleted frontcourt opens opportunities for value pivots like Naji Marshall or Kessler Edwards, but if he plays, he’s likely worth eating the chalk given his high floor and favorable game environment against a fast-paced opponent like Golden State. Keep an eye on news closer to lock before finalizing your lineup decisions.

More SF Plays:

• Josh Hart ($7,800)
• LeBron James ($10,500)
• Trey Murphy III ($8,200)

PF - Bol Bol ($4,300)

Bol Bol is shaping up to be one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,300. He’s projected for 30 minutes against a Houston team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency and offers a favorable game environment for fantasy production. Bol’s recent performances have been eye-opening, including a monster 52.5 DK-point outing against Memphis in 30 minutes where he stuffed the stat sheet with 18 points, 14 rebounds, and four blocks. With his strong per-minute production (0.96 FPPM) and a Boom% of 39.2%, he’s an excellent salary-saver who still carries legitimate upside for tournaments.

The high ownership (20.5%) is worth noting, but it feels justified given his combination of price, role, and recent form. At 6.7x value and appearing in over 23% of optimal lineups, Bol fits into both cash games and GPPs despite being chalky. His ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him less scoring-dependent, which is always valuable when targeting mid-range options like this. While there’s some risk tied to Phoenix’s rotation experimentation, the upside here far outweighs it—especially in this matchup against Houston’s interior defense. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk tonight, Bol looks like an ideal piece to build around at his price point.

More PF Plays:

• Pascal Siakam ($7,700)
• Josh Hart ($7,800)
• LeBron James ($10,500)

C - Thomas Bryant ($5,000)

Thomas Bryant is shaping up as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $5,000. With Myles Turner sidelined, Bryant continues to start for Indiana and has been consistently productive in the role. Over his last four starts, he’s averaging 15.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while shooting 54% from the field. He’s projected for 28 minutes tonight against Washington, a team that ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively but has struggled to contain opposing bigs at times this season. At 1.14 FPPM and a projection of nearly 32 DK points, Bryant offers a strong floor with a solid ceiling given his current usage.

The main concern here is ownership—Bryant is expected to be highly rostered at 30.7%. While that level of chalk can sometimes feel uncomfortable in tournaments, it seems justified in this case due to his combination of opportunity, price point, and matchup. His Boom% of 38.3% and appearance in over 25% of optimal lineups reinforce how strong of a play he is tonight. If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup elsewhere, Bryant’s value makes him an easy piece to lock in without overthinking it.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,500)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400)
• Domantas Sabonis ($9,500)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!