FREE 02/10 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game NBA slate offers plenty of opportunities to get creative with your DFS lineups. Two games immediately jump out as key targets: the Spurs at Wizards (237.5 total) tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and the Kings at Mavericks (236.5 total) at 8:30 PM ET. Both matchups feature high totals and fast-paced teams, which should attract a lot of attention from the field. Balancing exposure to these spots while finding value in lower-profile games could be the key to gaining an edge.

With most games starting between 7:00 and 8:30 PM ET, there won’t be much late swap opportunity tonight, so it’s important to nail your builds early. Prioritizing strong game environments while keeping an eye on potential under-the-radar plays will be crucial on a slate this size.

Game Environment Analysis

MIN @ CLE (O/U: 231.0, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: MIN (25th) vs CLE (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIN (13th) vs CLE (1st)
• Def Eff: MIN (5th) vs CLE (8th)

ATL @ ORL (O/U: 222.0, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: ATL (2nd) vs ORL (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (22nd) vs ORL (29th)
• Def Eff: ATL (15th) vs ORL (3rd)

SAS @ WAS (O/U: 237.5, Spread: 11.0)

• Pace: SAS (13th) vs WAS (4th)
• Off Eff: SAS (15th) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: SAS (18th) vs WAS (30th) 🎯

BOS @ MIA (O/U: 215.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: BOS (24th) vs MIA (27th)
• Off Eff: BOS (4th) vs MIA (20th)
• Def Eff: BOS (6th) vs MIA (11th)

CHA @ BKN (O/U: 211.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: CHA (22nd) vs BKN (30th)
• Off Eff: CHA (28th) vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: CHA (16th) vs BKN (22nd)

GSW @ MIL (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 7.0)

• Pace: GSW (15th) vs MIL (10th)
• Off Eff: GSW (18th) vs MIL (12th)
• Def Eff: GSW (9th) vs MIL (10th)

NOP @ OKC (O/U: 235.0, Spread: -17.0)

• Pace: NOP (11th) vs OKC (8th)
• Off Eff: NOP (25th) vs OKC (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs OKC (1st)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

SAC @ DAL (O/U: 236.5, Spread: -1.0)

• Pace: SAC (9th) vs DAL (17th)
• Off Eff: SAC (10th) vs DAL (7th) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAC (19th) vs DAL (13th)

POR @ DEN (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: POR (19th) vs DEN (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: POR (26th) vs DEN (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: POR (23rd) vs DEN (17th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Stephen Curry ($8,700)

Stephen Curry at $8,700 is a strong play on this slate, offering both upside and value in a tough matchup against Milwaukee. His 1.37 FPPM and projected 46.7 DK points translate to a solid 5.4x value, making him one of the better point-per-dollar options among high-priced guards. While the Bucks are generally strong defensively, Curry’s ability to stretch the floor and create his own shot mitigates matchup concerns, as evidenced by his recent performances of 52+ DK points in two of his last three games. The projected 34 minutes in a competitive game environment further solidifies his floor, especially given Golden State’s reliance on him for offensive production.

At 15.1% ownership, Curry will be relatively chalky compared to the field average, but it feels justified given his ceiling and consistency. His Boom% (28.2%) and presence in nearly 20% of optimal lineups highlight his ability to break the slate if he gets hot from deep. While there’s some risk tied to his questionable tag due to quad soreness, if he suits up, he has tournament-winning potential at this price point in what should be a fast-paced game with plenty of scoring opportunities. Keep an eye on injury news closer to lock, but if he plays, Curry is worth the ownership despite being popular.

More PG Plays:

• Damian Lillard ($9,200)
• Jordan Poole ($7,100)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800)

SG - Nick Smith Jr. ($4,000)

Nick Smith Jr. is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,000. Projected for 31 minutes and 22.3 DraftKings points (5.6x value), he offers strong salary relief while maintaining a solid ceiling, as evidenced by his recent performances. Over his last four games, Smith has averaged 31 DK points while logging consistent minutes in the low-to-mid 30s. The matchup against Brooklyn is favorable as well, with the Nets ranking in the bottom third of the league defensively against wing players. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—especially scoring—makes him a reliable option in both cash games and tournaments.

The one drawback here is his projected ownership of 30.6%, which makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While that level of popularity might make some DFS players hesitant, it’s not entirely unjustified given his price point and recent production. At this salary, even a modest game from Smith won’t sink your lineup, and there’s clear upside if he replicates his recent performances (30+ DK points in three of his last four). If you’re looking to differentiate in tournaments, consider pairing him with lower-owned options from this game or elsewhere to balance out your lineup’s overall ownership while still benefiting from Smith’s high value potential.

More SG Plays:

• Malik Monk ($7,700)
• Bilal Coulibaly ($6,200)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,700)

SF - Kyle Kuzma ($5,300)

Kyle Kuzma stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate at $5,300, projecting for 34.04 DK points and a strong 6.42x value. With Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined, Kuzma has stepped into an expanded role for Milwaukee, averaging 33 minutes over his last two games as a starter. While his shooting efficiency hasn’t been great (just 4-for-14 from three in those contests), he’s still contributing across the board with rebounds, assists, and defensive stats. The Warriors present a pace-up matchup that should create additional opportunities for Kuzma to produce in transition and capitalize on Golden State’s below-average defense against forwards.

At 62.4% projected ownership, Kuzma will be one of the most popular plays tonight, but the chalk feels justified given his price tag and ceiling potential in this spot. He appears in 34.6% of optimal lineups and carries a solid 40.58% boom rate—numbers that reflect his ability to smash value even in a high-ownership scenario. If you’re playing cash games, Kuzma is almost a lock given his role and salary relief. For tournaments, while pivoting off high ownership can be viable strategy-wise, fading him entirely could be risky considering how much upside he offers relative to his cost.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,500)
• PJ Washington ($7,000)
• Trey Murphy III ($8,200)

PF - Bobby Portis ($6,300)

Bobby Portis ($6,300) is in a strong spot tonight against the Warriors, offering both value and upside at his salary. With a 1.3 FPPM rate and a projected 37.8 DK points, he profiles as one of the slate’s best mid-range plays, delivering a solid 6x value projection. While he’s coming off the bench for Milwaukee, Portis has been highly productive in limited minutes this season and has shown he can thrive in high-paced matchups like this one against Golden State. The Warriors rank middle of the pack defensively but play at an elevated pace (5th in the league), which bodes well for Portis’ ability to rack up rebounds and second-chance opportunities. His recent performances—three straight games with over 44 DK points—prove that he’s fully capable of crushing value when given extended run.

The biggest question here is his massive ownership (57.7%). In tournaments, that level of chalk demands serious consideration. While his high Boom% (35.3%) and Optimal% (23.8%) suggest he’s worth eating the chalk in cash or small-field contests, fading him in large-field GPPs could be a viable strategy if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup. However, it’s hard to argue against Portis’ ceiling here given his proven ability to contribute across multiple categories and thrive in fast-paced environments like this one. If you’re comfortable with the ownership, Portis remains one of the slate’s top plays at his price point.

More PF Plays:

• Naz Reid ($6,900)
• Paolo Banchero ($8,300)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,000)

C - Richaun Holmes ($4,900)

Richaun Holmes is shaping up to be one of the better value plays on the slate at just $4,900. With a strong 1.05 FPPM and a projection of 28.45 DK points, he offers a solid 5.8x value in a favorable matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio has struggled defensively all season, particularly in the paint, and Holmes should have no trouble taking advantage given his recent production. Over his last two games, he’s averaged 30.5 minutes and put up 29.75 DK points while showcasing his rebounding upside with a double-double against Cleveland. With a projected 27 minutes tonight, there’s plenty of room for him to hit or exceed value.

The main concern here is his high ownership at 35.3%, which makes him chalky in tournaments. That said, this chalk feels justified given his price point and consistent role in recent games. He also ranks first in tournament viability and appears in 13.4% of optimal lineups, suggesting he’s not just popular but also highly likely to succeed relative to his salary. If you’re fading him, it’s likely for game theory reasons rather than performance concerns—but keep in mind that this is a prime spot for Holmes to deliver again against one of the league’s worst defenses at defending bigs.

More C Plays:

• Victor Wembanyama ($11,000)
• Nikola Jokic ($12,700)
• Naz Reid ($6,900)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!