FREE 03/14 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and offers a solid mix of game environments to work with. Two matchups stand out for their high totals: CLE at MEM (244.5) at 8:00 PM ET and LAC at ATL (233.0) at 7:30 PM ET. Both games feature fast-paced teams and should draw plenty of DFS interest, especially with the potential for big fantasy performances in those spots. The rest of the slate has some slower-paced games mixed in, so being selective about where you invest your salary will be key.

With all games starting within an hour of each other, late swap isn’t as much of a factor tonight, but there’s still room to get creative with your builds. Prioritizing exposure to the high-total games while finding value in lower-owned spots could give you an edge. Keep an eye on how ownership trends shake out—stacking one of the marquee matchups or targeting under-the-radar plays from less popular games might be the difference-maker on this slate.

Game Environment Analysis

BOS @ MIA (O/U: 214.0, Spread: 8.0)

• Pace: BOS (27th) vs MIA (28th)
• Off Eff: BOS (3rd) 🔥 vs MIA (21st)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs MIA (13th)

IND @ PHI (O/U: 231.5, Spread: 13.0)

• Pace: IND (8th) vs PHI (26th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: IND (8th) 🔥 vs PHI (22nd)
• Def Eff: IND (15th) vs PHI (26th) 🎯

LAC @ ATL (O/U: 233.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: LAC (21st) vs ATL (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAC (19th) vs ATL (18th)
• Def Eff: LAC (6th) vs ATL (17th)

DAL @ HOU (O/U: 220.0, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: DAL (16th) vs HOU (19th)
• Off Eff: DAL (10th) vs HOU (20th)
• Def Eff: DAL (18th) vs HOU (3rd)

ORL @ MIN (O/U: 206.5, Spread: -11.0)

• Pace: ORL (29th) vs MIN (24th)
• Off Eff: ORL (28th) vs MIN (12th)
• Def Eff: ORL (2nd) vs MIN (7th)

CHA @ SAS (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: CHA (20th) vs SAS (12th)
• Off Eff: CHA (29th) vs SAS (15th)
• Def Eff: CHA (16th) vs SAS (25th) 🎯

CLE @ MEM (O/U: 244.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: CLE (7th) vs MEM (1st)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) vs MEM (6th)
• Def Eff: CLE (4th) vs MEM (9th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jared Butler ($4,600)

Jared Butler ($4,600) stands out as one of the strongest value plays on the slate, and for good reason. Slotted into a starting role against the Pacers, Butler is projected for 28 minutes and carries an impressive 1.07 FPPM rate. That combination of opportunity and efficiency sets him up well to exceed his salary-based expectations, with a projected 30 DK points equating to a fantastic 6.5x value. The Pacers play at one of the fastest paces in the league, creating plenty of extra possessions for Butler to rack up assists and peripheral stats alongside his scoring. His recent performances as a starter—32.5 DK points in 35 minutes against Toronto and 24.8 DK points in just 24 minutes against Atlanta—demonstrate his ability to deliver solid production when given extended run.

The primary concern here is ownership, as Butler is expected to be rostered by nearly a third of the field (33%). While that level of chalk can be risky in tournaments, it’s hard to argue against it given his elite Boom% (37.8%) and appearance in nearly 30% of optimal lineups. The matchup with Indiana’s weak defense further justifies the high ownership, making this chalk worth eating in cash games or small-field contests. In larger GPPs, you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere if you roster Butler—but fading him entirely could leave you chasing too much value from less reliable options at this price point.

More PG Plays:

• Darius Garland ($7,700)
• LaMelo Ball ($9,800)
• Stephon Castle ($6,300)

SG - Devin Vassell ($6,300)

Devin Vassell is shaping up as one of the strongest mid-range plays on tonight’s slate at $6,300. With a projected 34.9 DK points and a solid 5.5x value, he offers both floor and upside in a favorable matchup against Charlotte. The Hornets rank among the league’s worst defensive teams, particularly against wings, making this an ideal spot for Vassell to thrive. Over his last six games, he’s averaging nearly 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while contributing defensively with steals and blocks—exactly what you want from a player priced in this range. His consistent minutes (34+ in each of his last five games) further bolster his appeal.

The main question is whether his high ownership (30.1%) makes him chalk worth eating or a potential fade in tournaments. Given his strong projection and presence in 22.5% of optimal lineups, it’s hard to argue against him being a viable play even at elevated ownership levels. This game environment also works in his favor; Charlotte plays at one of the fastest paces in the league, which should create plenty of opportunities for Vassell to rack up stats across the board. While fading chalk can work in certain situations, this doesn’t feel like the spot to get overly contrarian—Vassell is priced right for his role and matchup tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Stephon Castle ($6,300)
• Desmond Bane ($8,700)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,500)

SF - Keldon Johnson ($4,700)

Keldon Johnson is shaping up as one of the better value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,700. He projects for 27.04 DK points, which translates to a strong 5.75x value, and his 1.08 FPPM shows he’s productive when on the court. The matchup against Charlotte is another reason to like him here—this game has potential for a fast pace and high scoring, which suits Johnson’s ability to rack up points efficiently. Over his last five games, he’s shown a solid floor with multiple performances in the 25-30 DK point range despite limited minutes, making him a safe option in cash games while still offering upside for tournaments with a Boom% of 24.06%.

The only hesitation might be his ownership, which is projected at 23.8%, making him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. However, this seems like justified chalk given his price and role in an appealing game environment against one of the league’s weaker defenses. His presence in 18.54% of optimal lineups further supports that he’s worth rostering even at high ownership. While you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments, Johnson offers too much value to ignore tonight, especially if he continues to see around 25 minutes of efficient production off the bench.

More SF Plays:

• Kawhi Leonard ($8,700)
• Jayson Tatum ($11,100)
• Aaron Nesmith ($5,000)

PF - Evan Mobley ($8,600)

Evan Mobley ($8,600) stands out as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, and it’s easy to see why. With a strong 1.43 FPPM rate and a projection of 48.5 DK points, he offers both a high ceiling and consistent production in a favorable matchup against Memphis. The Grizzlies are without Steven Adams and have struggled to defend skilled bigs this season, ranking among the bottom third of the league in DvP against PFs and Cs. Mobley has been playing heavy minutes (34 projected tonight) and contributes across multiple stat categories, giving him plenty of ways to rack up fantasy points regardless of game flow. His Boom% of 33.3% highlights his upside, while his value at 5.6x is excellent for his price range.

The main concern with Mobley is his relatively high ownership (20.9%), but in this case, it seems warranted given his profile. He ranks first in tournament GPP projections and appears in 23.5% of optimal lineups, which indicates that even as chalk, he’s worth considering in all formats. While there’s always risk in playing popular options, Mobley’s versatility and consistent role make him less likely to disappoint compared to other high-owned plays on the slate. If you’re looking for a reliable anchor with upside for tournaments or cash games, Mobley fits the bill perfectly tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Miles Bridges ($9,100)
• Kawhi Leonard ($8,700)
• Tari Eason ($6,200)

C - Jarrett Allen ($6,400)

Jarrett Allen is shaping up to be one of the top center plays on tonight’s slate at $6,400. With a strong projection of 37.3 DK points and an impressive 5.82x value, he’s priced in a range that makes him hard to ignore, especially given his recent performances. Over his last five games, Allen has posted multiple ceiling-level outings, including a massive 55.8 DK point game against Chicago and a 47.8 DK point effort versus Brooklyn. His consistency as a rebounder and ability to contribute defensive stats (five steals against Charlotte stands out) give him a solid floor with legitimate upside in GPPs. Memphis isn’t an overly intimidating matchup for centers, making this spot even more appealing.

At 30.5% projected ownership, Allen will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, but it’s chalk that seems justified given his current form and price point. He ranks third overall in tournament value and appears in 25% of optimal lineups—numbers that reinforce his viability even in large-field contests despite high ownership. The Grizzlies’ frontcourt without Steven Adams lacks size and physicality, which could allow Allen to dominate the glass and rack up second-chance opportunities. While pivoting off chalk is always an option in GPPs, fading Allen here feels risky given how well he fits both game environment and salary structure tonight.

More C Plays:

• Alperen Sengun ($9,900)
• Ivica Zubac ($8,600)
• Bam Adebayo ($9,300)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!