FREE 03/15 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate offers plenty to dig into, with a mix of game environments that should shape how we approach DFS lineups. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET, but the real fireworks are later in the night with two standout matchups. The Wizards and Nuggets (9:00 PM ET) boast the highest total on the slate at 241.0, while the Pelicans and Spurs (8:30 PM ET) aren’t far behind at 236.5. Both games project to be fast-paced and high-scoring, making them prime targets for stacking or grabbing key pieces.

The rest of the slate has some slower-paced spots, so focusing on those higher-total games could give you an edge if they hit their ceilings. Late swap also plays a role here with the last game tipping off at 9:00 PM ET—keeping flexibility in your lineup might help you capitalize on any news or adjustments as the night progresses. With strong game environments to target and some potential pivots available, this is a slate where lineup construction will be key.

Game Environment Analysis

OKC @ DET (O/U: 233.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: OKC (11th) vs DET (6th)
• Off Eff: OKC (4th) vs DET (16th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs DET (11th)

CHI @ HOU (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs HOU (19th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (17th) vs HOU (19th)
• Def Eff: CHI (24th) vs HOU (2nd)

IND @ MIL (O/U: 234.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: IND (10th) vs MIL (9th)
• Off Eff: IND (8th) vs MIL (13th)
• Def Eff: IND (14th) vs MIL (10th)

MIA @ MEM (O/U: 225.5, Spread: -7.0)

• Pace: MIA (28th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (21st) vs MEM (6th)
• Def Eff: MIA (13th) vs MEM (9th)

NYK @ GSW (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -7.0)

• Pace: NYK (25th) vs GSW (15th)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) vs GSW (15th)
• Def Eff: NYK (15th) vs GSW (8th)

NOP @ SAS (O/U: 236.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: NOP (14th) vs SAS (12th)
• Off Eff: NOP (24th) vs SAS (14th)
• Def Eff: NOP (29th) 🎯 vs SAS (25th) 🎯

WAS @ DEN (O/U: 241.0, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs DEN (7th)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs DEN (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: WAS (28th) 🎯 vs DEN (22nd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jose Alvarado ($4,500)

Jose Alvarado is shaping up to be one of the better value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,500. His 1.13 FPPM combined with a projected 26 minutes and 29.4 DK points give him an impressive 6.5x value in a favorable matchup against the Spurs, who rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Alvarado’s ability to rack up steals (2.2 per game over his last five) only adds to his upside, especially in a fast-paced game environment against San Antonio. With a Boom% of nearly 37% and appearing in almost 19% of optimal lineups, he’s not just a safe value play but also has legitimate GPP-winning potential.

The main concern here is ownership, as Alvarado is projected to be rostered by over 36% of the field. While that’s high, it feels justified given his price tag and recent production—he’s topped 26 DK points in three of his last four games despite coming off the bench. The Spurs’ poor defense should allow him to easily hit value, and at this salary, you can afford to eat some chalk while focusing on differentiating elsewhere in your lineup. If you’re playing cash games or looking for stability with upside in tournaments, Alvarado is tough to pass up tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,500)
• Stephon Castle ($6,200)
• CJ McCollum ($6,700)

SG - Stephon Castle ($6,200)

Stephon Castle ($6,200) is shaping up as one of the most intriguing plays on tonight’s slate. With a strong 5.8x value projection and a 31.2% Boom rate, he offers significant upside for his price point. Castle has been thriving in the Spurs’ starting lineup, averaging 18.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists over his last 11 starts while maintaining a solid 1.13 FPPM rate. Facing the Pelicans, who rank in the bottom half of the league defensively against guards, Castle is in an excellent spot to deliver another high-efficiency performance. His projected 32 minutes combined with his offensive role make him a reliable mid-range option with ceiling potential in tournaments.

The biggest consideration here is Castle’s high ownership at 28.8%, which makes him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. While this level of popularity could deter some DFS players looking for leverage, it’s hard to argue against the value he brings at $6,200 given his consistent production and favorable matchup. With nearly 20% Optimal Lineup probability and a top-3 Tournament Rank among guards, Castle appears to be justified chalk in this spot—especially in cash games or smaller field GPPs where safety matters more than differentiation. If you’re fading him in large-field tournaments, make sure you have strong pivots because fading a player with this combination of opportunity and efficiency carries significant risk tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Trey Murphy III ($7,500)
• Devin Vassell ($6,400)
• Coby White ($7,500)

SF - Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($3,500)

Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($3,500) is shaping up as one of the strongest value plays on the slate tonight. With a projection of 23.8 DK points and a solid 0.95 FPPM, he offers a massive 6.8x value at his salary, making him an appealing option for both cash games and tournaments. Now locked into the starting lineup, Jaquez should see roughly 25 minutes against Memphis, a team that has struggled defensively this season. His versatility at SF/PF gives him multiple ways to contribute across categories, and his 33.6% Boom Rate highlights his potential to exceed expectations in this spot.

The high ownership (32.6%) is worth noting, but it feels justified given his price point and role increase. He’s appearing in 20.5% of optimal lineups, which suggests he’s not just chalk for the sake of it—there’s legitimate upside here. While some may shy away due to the heavy field exposure, Jaquez makes sense as a foundational piece in your builds if you’re looking for reliable salary relief with tournament-winning potential. Just keep in mind that fading him would require finding similar upside elsewhere at this price range—a tall task on this slate.

More SF Plays:

• Trey Murphy III ($7,500)
• Devin Vassell ($6,400)
• Coby White ($7,500)

PF - Keldon Johnson ($4,700)

Keldon Johnson is shaping up as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,700. With a 6.0x value projection and a solid 1.13 FPPM, he’s expected to deliver around 28 DraftKings points in this matchup against the Pelicans. While he’s not playing heavy minutes (projected for 25), his efficiency and recent production suggest he can easily outperform his salary. Over his last three games, Johnson has hit or exceeded 25 DK points twice, including a ceiling game of 37.8 DK points in just 29 minutes against Dallas. The Pelicans rank middle-of-the-pack defensively, and with Johnson’s ability to score efficiently and contribute across multiple categories, this spot looks favorable for him to return strong value.

The main concern here is ownership, as Johnson is projected to be rostered by over 20% of the field—a significant number on a large slate. However, the chalk seems justified given his high boom rate (28.4%) and appearance in over 20% of optimal lineups. At this price point, there aren’t many other players who offer similar upside without major minute or role concerns. If you’re building tournament lineups, Johnson works well as a solid mid-range piece that allows you to spend up elsewhere while still providing enough upside to compete in GPPs. Just know you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere given his popularity tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
• Kelly Olynyk ($5,100)
• Karlo Matkovic ($4,600)

C - Nikola Jokic ($12,800)

At $12,800, Nikola Jokic comes with a hefty price tag, but his consistent production makes him worth every penny in the right lineup. Facing the Wizards, who rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggle against centers, Jokic is set up for another monster outing. His 1.82 FPPM is elite, and with a projection of 63.6 DK points over 35 minutes, he offers strong value at nearly 5x his salary. Washington’s lack of rim protection should allow Jokic to dominate in all facets of the game—scoring, rebounding, and playmaking. While his recent performances have fallen slightly short of his ceiling games (like the 100 DK point triple-double against Phoenix), this matchup provides an ideal opportunity for him to bounce back.

The 20% projected ownership does make him chalky relative to other options on the slate, but it feels justified given both his floor and upside. He appears in 17.3% of optimal lineups and has a 22% boom rate—numbers that reinforce his viability even at high exposure. In tournaments, you’ll need to decide whether to eat the chalk or pivot elsewhere for leverage, but fading Jokic entirely feels risky given how well he’s positioned against this Wizards team. If you can build around his salary without sacrificing too much elsewhere, Jokic should be a cornerstone piece in your lineups tonight.

More C Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
• Alperen Sengun ($9,900)
• Kelly Olynyk ($5,100)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!