FREE 03/13 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a compact 5-game NBA slate tonight, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with two late-night matchups at 10:00 PM ET. The games to keep an eye on from a DFS perspective are SAC at GSW (234.5 total) and WAS at DET (234.0 total). Both project to be high-paced environments with plenty of scoring opportunities, which should make them popular targets for roster construction. The other games on the slate have lower totals, so ownership could condense around these higher-scoring spots.

With only five games, finding the right balance between chalk plays and lower-owned pivots will be key. Late swap could also play a role with two of the most appealing matchups happening in the late window, so staying flexible might give you an edge as news comes out. It’s not a huge slate, but there’s still enough variety to build some creative lineups if you’re willing to take a few risks. Let’s see how it plays out!

Game Environment Analysis

WAS @ DET (O/U: 234.0, Spread: -13.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs DET (7th)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs DET (16th)
• Def Eff: WAS (28th) 🎯 vs DET (10th)

LAL @ MIL (O/U: 224.0, Spread: -7.0)

• Pace: LAL (22nd) vs MIL (10th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAL (10th) vs MIL (13th)
• Def Eff: LAL (12th) vs MIL (11th)

ORL @ NOP (O/U: 216.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: ORL (29th) vs NOP (13th)
• Off Eff: ORL (28th) vs NOP (24th)
• Def Eff: ORL (2nd) vs NOP (29th) 🎯

BKN @ CHI (O/U: 230.0, Spread: -2.0)

• Pace: BKN (30th) vs CHI (3rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs CHI (17th)
• Def Eff: BKN (19th) vs CHI (24th)

SAC @ GSW (O/U: 234.5, Spread: -7.0)

• Pace: SAC (17th) vs GSW (15th)
• Off Eff: SAC (8th) vs GSW (15th)
• Def Eff: SAC (16th) vs GSW (8th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Tre Jones ($5,000)

At $5,000, Tre Jones projects as one of the strongest value plays on the slate with a 5.82x value and a projection of 29.1 DK points in 31.5 minutes against Brooklyn. His consistent role in Chicago’s rotation, especially with Lonzo Ball sidelined, has made him reliable for DFS purposes. Over his last four games, Jones has averaged 31 DK points while contributing across multiple categories, including assists and rebounds. Brooklyn’s defense doesn’t present much resistance against point guards, making this an appealing matchup for Jones to continue his steady production.

The main concern here is ownership—Jones is projected to be rostered in nearly 35% of lineups, which makes him chalky for tournaments. However, this level of ownership seems justified given his price point and the strong likelihood he hits value. His ability to contribute without needing high scoring volume makes him safer than most players in this range. While he may not provide massive upside for GPPs, fading him entirely could be risky considering he appears in over 27% of optimal lineups. If you’re playing cash games or building balanced tournament lineups, Jones should be firmly on your radar tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Luka Doncic ($12,000)
• Austin Reaves ($7,500)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,300)

SG - Kevin Huerter ($4,300)

Kevin Huerter ($4,300) stands out as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate, and the numbers back it up. Projected for 27.1 DK points at just $4,300, he offers a strong 6.3x value while appearing in over 30% of optimal lineups. Huerter’s role has been steady, averaging over 30 minutes per game recently, and his 0.86 FPPM production paired with Brooklyn’s below-average defense against wings puts him in a great spot to deliver. With a Boom% of 32%, he has legitimate upside to outperform his salary while still providing a solid floor.

At 30% projected ownership, Huerter is chalky, but it feels justified given his price point and matchup. While you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments if you roster him, fading him entirely could be risky given his combination of opportunity and efficiency metrics. The game environment also works in his favor; Brooklyn’s pace should help create additional opportunities for Huerter to rack up points through threes and peripheral stats like steals (he’s averaged nearly two per game over his last three). At this salary, he’s hard to ignore in both cash games and GPPs.

More SG Plays:

• Austin Reaves ($7,500)
• Coby White ($7,300)
• Cole Anthony ($4,900)

SF - Cam Thomas ($6,400)

Cam Thomas ($6,400) stands out as a solid mid-range option on tonight’s slate. Projected for 35.46 DK points with a strong 5.54x value, he offers an appealing mix of floor and ceiling at his price point. He’s averaging 1.18 FPPM and is expected to log around 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against Chicago. The Bulls rank in the bottom half of the league defensively against perimeter scorers, which should give Thomas plenty of opportunities to capitalize on his volume-heavy role. His recent performances show consistency, with three games of 34+ DK points in his last four outings, including a 37.8 DK-point effort against Golden State.

At 18.1% projected ownership, Thomas will likely be moderately popular but not overwhelmingly chalky. This level of ownership feels justified given his tournament rank (2nd overall) and the fact that he appears in nearly 27% of optimal lineups—a clear sign of his viability in both cash games and GPPs. While there’s some risk tied to his scoring dependency, his usage and ability to hit from deep (four or more threes in eight games this season) make him a strong play in this price range, especially in what could be a competitive game environment versus Chicago.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,400)
• Coby White ($7,300)
• Jimmy Butler ($7,900)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)

Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in at $11,700 tonight, and while that’s a hefty salary, he’s projecting as one of the top plays on the slate with 58.4 DK points and a strong 25.2% optimal lineup rate. Facing the Lakers, this matchup sets up well for Giannis to dominate in a fast-paced game environment. The Lakers rank middle of the pack defensively but struggle to contain elite forwards, and with Giannis playing 35 minutes per game and averaging 1.67 FPPM this season, his ceiling is undeniable. His recent production has been consistent, with three games over 58 DK points in his last five outings, showing he can justify his price tag even without major peripherals like blocks or steals.

At just 11.6% projected ownership, Giannis offers some leverage compared to other high-priced stars on the slate, especially given his strong Boom% (19.3%) and value rating (4.99x). While he’s not flying under the radar completely, this level of ownership makes him appealing in tournaments where you’re looking for both upside and differentiation from the field. If you can find value elsewhere to fit him into your build, Giannis is worth prioritizing in lineups targeting high-scoring contests or competitive games where his usage will remain sky-high.

More PF Plays:

• Paolo Banchero ($9,000)
• Jimmy Butler ($7,900)
• Matas Buzelis ($4,800)

C - Wendell Carter Jr. ($4,800)

Wendell Carter Jr. stands out as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,800. Projected for 28.9 DK points and a strong 6.0x value, he offers a solid floor for his price while also carrying upside with a 29% Boom Rate and top Tournament Rank among all players. The matchup against the Pelicans is favorable, as they rank middle-of-the-pack defensively against centers and will likely be without Zion Williamson, which could open up additional rebounding opportunities in a slower-paced game environment. Carter’s consistent minutes (averaging nearly 30 per game) and steady production make him an appealing option in both cash games and tournaments.

The one concern here is his projected ownership at 24.5%, which makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While that level of popularity can limit your edge in tournaments, it’s justified given his price point and role in Orlando’s rotation. He’s been efficient with nearly 1 DK point per minute this season and has shown flashes of ceiling performances, including a 33.8 DK-point outing just a few games ago against Toronto. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Carter fits nicely as a high-value piece to round out your lineups while allowing you to pay up elsewhere.

More C Plays:

• Jalen Duren ($6,900)
• Nic Claxton ($5,200)
• Draymond Green ($6,400)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!