FREE 11/04 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game slate kicks off at 7:30 PM ET with MIL at TOR and wraps up an hour later with PHI at CHI. With only four games, you’ll want to zero in on the environments that could drive fantasy production, especially since the implied totals suggest some solid scoring potential overall.

The two highest totals stand out here: PHI at CHI at 239.5 and MIL at TOR at 237.5. Both matchups involve teams that can push the pace, which should create opportunities for volume plays on both ends. It’s a straightforward setup for DFS, so stacking those games could pay off if the games deliver on their projections.

Game Environment Analysis

MIL @ TOR (O/U: 237.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: MIL (9th) vs TOR (7th)
• Off Eff: MIL (4th) 🔥 vs TOR (13th)
• Def Eff: MIL (15th) vs TOR (26th) 🎯

PHI @ CHI (O/U: 239.5, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: PHI (19th) vs CHI (14th)
• Off Eff: PHI (3rd) 🔥 vs CHI (5th)
• Def Eff: PHI (14th) vs CHI (19th)

CHA @ NOP (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: CHA (12th) vs NOP (26th)
• Off Eff: CHA (9th) 🔥 vs NOP (27th)
• Def Eff: CHA (25th) 🎯 vs NOP (29th) 🎯

ORL @ ATL (O/U: 229.5, Spread: 3.5)

• Pace: ORL (5th) vs ATL (6th)
• Off Eff: ORL (16th) vs ATL (20th)
• Def Eff: ORL (8th) vs ATL (13th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Josh Giddey ($9,100)

Josh Giddey trends upward with 58.0 DK points across his last three games, surpassing his season average of 50.2 while contributing 22.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per contest on efficient 49.0% field goal and 40.7% three-point shooting. His 27.69% usage rate and 21.65 PER highlight his central role in Chicago’s offense, especially as he logs 34.0 projected minutes against Philadelphia’s defense that struggles to contain versatile point guards who facilitate and score in transition.

This matchup favors Giddey’s all-around production, positioning him for another high-output night with a 28.3% boom rate and 5.36x value at his $9,100 salary. Chicago’s game against the Sixers carries solid implied totals, allowing Giddey to exploit secondary opportunities while DeMar DeRozan draws primary attention, making him a cornerstone for DFS builds despite 31.8% projected ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Jeremiah Fears ($4,700)
• Tre Jones ($5,500)

SG - Collin Sexton ($6,700)

Collin Sexton delivers consistent value at $6,700, averaging 27.8 DK points over his last seven games with 16.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on scorching 52.9% field goal and 47.6% three-point efficiency. His 23.58% usage and 17.20 PER underscore reliable scoring punch from the PG/SG spot, particularly as Charlotte leans on his quickness in a fast-paced environment against New Orleans.

Sexton’s 31.0 projected minutes and 1.18 FPPM boost his 5.48x value rating, with a 24.1% boom rate that aligns perfectly for tournament play where he ranks first overall. The Pelicans’ perimeter defense ranks middling against combo guards, opening lanes for Sexton to rack up points and dimes without excessive ownership at 11.9%, solidifying his spot as a top pick.

More SG Plays:

• Dyson Daniels ($6,600)
• Trey Murphy III ($6,900)

SF - Kon Knueppel ($5,500)

Kon Knueppel faces New Orleans in a favorable road matchup for Charlotte, where the Pelicans concede ample points to shooting guards and small forwards averaging 14.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.3 assists like his season norms on 46.1% field goals and 43.1% from deep. His 18.51% usage thrives in Charlotte’s up-tempo style, projecting 31.0 minutes to rebound from a slight recent dip and capitalize on defensive lapses.

At $5,500, Knueppel offers 5.32x value with a leading 26.5% optimal lineup rate and 21.2% boom potential, making him an undervalued gem in tournaments despite 16.1% ownership. Charlotte’s implied total supports multi-category output from wings, allowing Knueppel to shine through spot-up shooting and transition plays against a Pelicans unit vulnerable to efficient scorers.

More SF Plays:

• Brandon Ingram ($7,300)
• Franz Wagner ($7,700)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)

Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 34.0 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists this season on elite 68.1% field goal and 60.0% three-point shooting, powering Milwaukee with a 35.41% usage rate and staggering 40.42 PER through 33.0 projected minutes. Even with a minor recent adjustment to 60.0 DK points over his last three, his dominance persists, blending scoring, rebounding, and playmaking into consistent elite production.

Toronto’s frontcourt defense exposes weaknesses against athletic power forwards, enhancing Antetokounmpo’s 60.2-point projection and 27.3% boom rate at $11,500 for 5.24x value. As the Bucks chase a high-total game on the road, Giannis commands attention and creates mismatches, ranking third in tournaments with 25.1% optimal rate despite high 38.2% ownership, cementing his status as the premier PF option.

More PF Plays:

• Jalen Johnson ($8,600)
• Scottie Barnes ($8,200)

C - Nikola Vucevic ($7,900)

Nikola Vucevic operates in Chicago’s high-volume offense against Philadelphia, consistently posting 42.8 DK points over his last three games with season averages of 19.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on 58.7% field goals and 53.8% threes. His 20.46% usage and 23.87 PER fuel steady double-doubles in 32.0 projected minutes, thriving as the Bulls’ primary interior threat.

This matchup amplifies Vucevic’s 43.2-point projection and 27.8% boom rate, delivering 5.47x value at $7,900 with a 22.0% optimal lineup rate that outpaces his 23.4% ownership. Philadelphia’s big-man defense yields rebounds and efficient looks to centers with range, enabling Vucevic to dominate the glass and score from mid-range and beyond in a game environment primed for frontcourt production.

More C Plays:

• Ryan Kalkbrenner ($5,000)
• Moussa Diabate ($3,900)

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