FREE 11/07 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a 9-game slate tonight, starting at 7:00 PM ET and with the last tip at 8:00 PM ET. The tight start window limits late swaps, but it simplifies lineup building without too much chaos. Pace looks solid across the board, with a few matchups that could push usage for key guys.

The highest totals sit at 240.5 for both CLE at WAS and CHI at MIL, making those prime targets for DFS. Washington’s pace ranks high, and Milwaukee’s efficiency could drive points in a favorable spot. Keep an eye on those environments—they offer real leverage if you stack right.

Game Environment Analysis

BOS @ ORL (O/U: 226.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: BOS (30th) vs ORL (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BOS (14th) vs ORL (19th)
• Def Eff: BOS (8th) vs ORL (12th)

CLE @ WAS (O/U: 240.5, Spread: 13.5)

• Pace: CLE (10th) vs WAS (3rd)
• Off Eff: CLE (23rd) vs WAS (28th)
• Def Eff: CLE (9th) vs WAS (29th) 🎯

TOR @ ATL (O/U: 234.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: TOR (9th) vs ATL (7th)
• Off Eff: TOR (12th) vs ATL (16th)
• Def Eff: TOR (22nd) vs ATL (13th)

DET @ BKN (O/U: 227.5, Spread: 10.5)

• Pace: DET (15th) vs BKN (21st)
• Off Eff: DET (22nd) vs BKN (25th)
• Def Eff: DET (3rd) vs BKN (30th) 🎯

HOU @ SAS (O/U: 224.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: HOU (28th) vs SAS (26th)
• Off Eff: HOU (1st) vs SAS (7th)
• Def Eff: HOU (6th) vs SAS (2nd)

CHA @ MIA (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: CHA (14th) vs MIA (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHA (11th) vs MIA (13th)
• Def Eff: CHA (27th) 🎯 vs MIA (7th)

CHI @ MIL (O/U: 240.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: CHI (13th) vs MIL (11th)
• Off Eff: CHI (10th) 🔥 vs MIL (8th)
• Def Eff: CHI (14th) vs MIL (20th)

UTA @ MIN (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -12.5)

• Pace: UTA (22nd) vs MIN (23rd)
• Off Eff: UTA (24th) vs MIN (5th) 🔥
• Def Eff: UTA (21st) vs MIN (25th) 🎯

DAL @ MEM (O/U: 232.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: DAL (5th) vs MEM (6th)
• Off Eff: DAL (30th) vs MEM (26th)
• Def Eff: DAL (4th) vs MEM (23rd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Tre Mann ($4,900)

Tre Mann continues to thrive in expanded minutes off the bench, averaging 28 fantasy points over his last five outings with efficient shooting from beyond the arc. His quick-release jumper exploits Miami’s perimeter defense, which allows the fourth-most points to opposing guards this season, and with higher usage in a fast-paced game against the Heat, Mann projects for 32.7 points at just $4,900, delivering 6.68x value that outpaces his high ownership.

Mann’s boom potential hits 43% in simulations, driven by his ability to rack up steals and assists alongside scoring bursts. He steps into optimal builds 27.6% of the time, making him a lock for point guard lineups where his multi-category production turns modest salary into tournament-winning upside.

More PG Plays:

• Josh Giddey ($9,300)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,400)

SG - Tyrese Martin ($4,000)

Tyrese Martin faces a Detroit defense vulnerable to wing scorers, surrendering 25 points per game to shooting guards in their last 10 matchups. At $4,000, Martin leverages his athleticism for transition opportunities, projecting 24.9 points with a 6.22x value that rewards his role in a high-tempo Pistons-Cavs clash.

His 28% boom rate stems from consistent rebounding and defensive contributions, positioning him as optimal in 14.3% of lineups despite elevated ownership. Martin converts low salary into reliable output, especially against a Pistons frontcourt that struggles to contain guards who push the pace.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($8,900)
• Stephon Castle ($7,400)

SF - Kon Knueppel ($5,800)

Kon Knueppel delivers outsized value at $5,800, consistently exceeding his projection of 31.5 points in favorable spots against Miami’s wing defenders. He grabs 7 rebounds per game lately, capitalizing on the Heat’s poor interior protection, and his spot-up shooting efficiency boosts his ceiling in a game with strong implied totals.

With a 24% boom probability, Knueppel fills optimal rosters 14% of the time, turning his salary into versatile production across scoring and boards. His matchup exploits Miami’s weaknesses, ensuring steady returns that solidify him as the top small forward choice on this slate.

More SF Plays:

• PJ Washington ($7,200)
• Terance Mann ($4,500)

PF - Michael Porter Jr. ($7,000)

Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 35 fantasy points over the past month, blending elite three-point volume with rebounding prowess against Detroit’s middling power forward coverage. At $7,000, he projects for 38.6 points and 5.52x value, thriving in a matchup where the Pistons rank bottom-five in defending stretch fours.

Porter’s 27% boom rate highlights his scoring explosions, landing him in 16% of optimal builds amid high ownership. He dominates through off-ball movement and putback opportunities, making him indispensable for forward slots where his efficiency drives lineup ceilings.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600)
• Miles Bridges ($8,600)

C - Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300)

Jusuf Nurkic operates in a rebound-heavy environment against Minnesota’s thin frontcourt, where he averages 12 boards and 20 points in similar high-altitude tilts. His $6,300 salary yields 5.67x value on a 35.7-point projection, capitalizing on the Timberwolves’ pace that favors post players with his passing vision.

Nurkic’s 29% boom potential arises from double-double consistency and blocks, optimizing 12.6% of lineups despite popularity. He controls the glass and facilitates in transition, positioning him as the premier center pick for slates demanding dominant interior presence.

More C Plays:

• Jalen Duren ($7,500)
• Daniel Gafford ($5,000)

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