FREE 11/03 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and wraps by 9:00 PM ET, giving us a solid window without too much late-night grind. The highest totals stand out right away—SAC at DEN sitting at 236.5 and MIL at IND at 235.5—which should mean some solid scoring environments to target for your builds. These games could drive a lot of the value if the paces hold up, especially with Denver and Indiana pushing the tempo.

From a DFS angle, the mix of these high totals with a few lower ones means you’ll want to prioritize exposure to those top environments while hunting value in the mid-tier matchups. Pace plays a role here, as teams like the Kings and Bucks can inflate usage for key guys. It’s a straightforward slate to navigate if you stack smart, but the implied totals will dictate how aggressive you get overall.

Game Environment Analysis

MIL @ IND (O/U: 235.5, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: MIL (9th) vs IND (11th)
• Off Eff: MIL (4th) 🔥 vs IND (29th)
• Def Eff: MIL (15th) vs IND (16th)

MIN @ BKN (O/U: 225.5, Spread: 10.5)

• Pace: MIN (21st) vs BKN (22nd)
• Off Eff: MIN (11th) vs BKN (25th)
• Def Eff: MIN (18th) vs BKN (30th) 🎯

UTA @ BOS (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: UTA (20th) vs BOS (28th)
• Off Eff: UTA (18th) vs BOS (19th)
• Def Eff: UTA (24th) vs BOS (10th)

WAS @ NYK (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -12.5)

• Pace: WAS (2nd) vs NYK (24th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (28th) vs NYK (13th)
• Def Eff: WAS (28th) 🎯 vs NYK (22nd)

DAL @ HOU (O/U: 224.5, Spread: -12.5)

• Pace: DAL (4th) vs HOU (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DAL (30th) vs HOU (1st)
• Def Eff: DAL (9th) vs HOU (13th)

DET @ MEM (O/U: 235.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: DET (13th) vs MEM (6th)
• Off Eff: DET (23rd) vs MEM (24th)
• Def Eff: DET (6th) vs MEM (23rd)

SAC @ DEN (O/U: 236.5, Spread: -11.5)

• Pace: SAC (17th) vs DEN (23rd)
• Off Eff: SAC (21st) vs DEN (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAC (25th) 🎯 vs DEN (3rd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Quenton Jackson ($4,700)

Quenton Jackson elevates his game in recent outings, posting 33.1 DK points across his last three contests while boosting his season averages to 13.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on efficient 57.6% field goal shooting. His usage rate climbs to 21.31%, fueling a PER of 25.00 that underscores his impact as a dual-threat guard, especially with projected 28.0 minutes against Milwaukee.

This matchup favors Jackson’s versatility, as Indiana’s pace creates opportunities for transition plays and his 54.5% three-point shooting exploits any perimeter lapses. At $4,700, he delivers 5.9x value with a 29.0% boom rate and tournament rank of 2, making him the clear top PG/SG pick despite 32.6% ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Derrick White ($7,200)
• Ryan Rollins ($5,800)

SG - Tyrese Martin ($3,600)

Tyrese Martin delivers consistent value at a bargain salary, averaging 17.3 DK points in his last three games while exceeding his season norms of 6.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Even with modest shooting splits of 33.3% from the field and 29.2% from deep, his 16.34% usage in 26.0 projected minutes positions him for steady contributions in Brooklyn’s rotation.

Facing Minnesota’s defense, Martin thrives in a game environment ripe for wing production, where his optimal lineup rate of 20.4% and 6.3x value rating shine through. Tournament rank of 5 at just $3,600, paired with 27.7% ownership, cements him as the premier SG/SF option for building balanced lineups.

More SG Plays:

• Payton Pritchard ($6,300)
• Russell Westbrook ($6,000)

SF - Ausar Thompson ($6,000)

Ausar Thompson maintains strong season-long production at 31.9 DK points per game, highlighted by 14.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on 47.2% field goal efficiency across 27.5 minutes. His 21.49% usage and 16.78 PER reflect a well-rounded skill set that rebounds well even in a slight recent dip, setting up for a bounce-back in Detroit’s system.

Traveling to Memphis opens defensive gaps for Thompson’s athleticism, with 30.0 projected minutes amplifying his 5.5x value and 21.4% boom potential. As the tournament’s No. 2 SF at $6,000 and 17.1% ownership, he anchors forward builds with reliability and upside.

More SF Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($8,300)
• OG Anunoby ($6,500)

PF - Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500)

Karl-Anthony Towns dominates the glass and scoring sheet, averaging 18.3 points and a league-leading 13.2 rebounds alongside 2.8 assists on 38.0% field goal and 35.7% three-point shooting. His 23.38% usage in 33.0 projected minutes sustains a 17.61 PER, powering New York’s frontcourt even amid minor fluctuations in recent output.

This home tilt against Washington invites Towns to exploit interior mismatches, fueling a 48.0-point projection with 34.5% boom rate and 5.7x value. Tournament rank of 4 at $8,500, with 33.8% ownership, establishes him as the top PF for high-ceiling tournaments.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
• Pascal Siakam ($9,500)

C - Jusuf Nurkic ($4,800)

Jusuf Nurkic sustains steady output at 22.6 DK points season-wide, blending 7.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in a consistent role that matches his last seven games at 24.5 points. With 23.86% usage and 23.0 projected minutes for Utah, his 11.66 PER highlights rebounding prowess despite 39.0% field goal efficiency.

On the road versus Boston, Nurkic targets second-chance opportunities in a physical matchup, enhancing his 5.8x value and 26.6% boom rate. As the No. 2 center at $4,800 and 30.2% ownership, he provides the reliable floor essential for center selections.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
• Alperen Sengun ($9,300)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!