FREE 11/10 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 8-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and wraps by 9:00 PM ET, giving you a solid window without too much late-night grinding. A few matchups should push the pace and create value, especially where totals climb high. Overall, it’s a balanced board for DFS, with opportunities to target teams in favorable spots for usage and minutes.

The standout totals are CLE at MIA at 7:30 PM ET (246.5) and SAS at CHI at 8:00 PM ET (237.5), both setting up for potential stacks if the games stay competitive. Keep an eye on those for correlation plays, as the environments could lead to efficient scoring from key contributors on both sides.

Game Environment Analysis

WAS @ DET (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -11.5)

• Pace: WAS (3rd) vs DET (16th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (28th) vs DET (18th)
• Def Eff: WAS (29th) 🎯 vs DET (2nd)

POR @ ORL (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: POR (2nd) vs ORL (11th)
• Off Eff: POR (21st) vs ORL (17th)
• Def Eff: POR (15th) vs ORL (12th)

LAL @ CHA (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 8.5)

• Pace: LAL (17th) vs CHA (14th)
• Off Eff: LAL (11th) vs CHA (14th)
• Def Eff: LAL (23rd) vs CHA (25th) 🎯

CLE @ MIA (O/U: 246.5, Spread: 7.5)

• Pace: CLE (7th) vs MIA (1st)
• Off Eff: CLE (12th) vs MIA (9th)
• Def Eff: CLE (10th) vs MIA (6th)

SAS @ CHI (O/U: 237.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: SAS (25th) vs CHI (10th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAS (5th) 🔥 vs CHI (10th)
• Def Eff: SAS (4th) vs CHI (19th)

MIL @ DAL (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: MIL (13th) vs DAL (5th)
• Off Eff: MIL (7th) vs DAL (29th)
• Def Eff: MIL (22nd) vs DAL (5th)

NOP @ PHX (O/U: 227.5, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: NOP (27th) vs PHX (24th)
• Off Eff: NOP (27th) vs PHX (16th)
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs PHX (20th)

MIN @ UTA (O/U: 234.5, Spread: 7.5)

• Pace: MIN (20th) vs UTA (21st)
• Off Eff: MIN (2nd) 🔥 vs UTA (26th)
• Def Eff: MIN (16th) vs UTA (24th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Luka Doncic ($12,000)

Luka Doncic commands the Mavericks’ attack against Charlotte with a season-long average of 37.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game, fueled by his league-leading 39.13% usage rate. His projected 60.1 DK points reflect a 5.01x value at $12,000 salary, especially with 38.0 minutes on deck and a boom rate of 26.0% that positions him for explosive outings. Even amid a slight recent dip to 65.1 points over his last three games, Charlotte’s defense struggles to contain high-usage point guards, allowing Doncic to exploit mismatches and rack up triple-doubles.

This matchup elevates Doncic’s optimal lineup rate to 11.7%, drawing moderate 11.0% ownership that keeps him accessible without excessive chalk. His 1.58 fantasy points per minute efficiency shines in Charlotte’s porous backcourt, where he converts 49.0% from the field and grabs extra boards against smaller defenders. As the top PG pick, Doncic delivers reliable ceiling potential in a game environment primed for his all-around dominance.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($10,500)
• Devin Booker ($9,600)

SG - Desmond Bane ($6,100)

Desmond Bane trends upward into this matchup against Portland, posting 29.2 DK points over his last three games while averaging 14.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on the season. At $6,100, he crushes value with a 5.57x rating and 26.0% boom rate across 33.5 projected minutes, outpacing his 27.0 season average to signal continued hot streak. Portland’s wing defense ranks vulnerable to shooters like Bane, who hits 43.1% from the field and thrives with his 21.40% usage in an offense that prioritizes perimeter scoring.

Bane’s 15.9% optimal lineup rate underscores his appeal despite 23.0% projected ownership, as his 1.01 fantasy points per minute yield consistent 34.0-point projections. He exploits Portland’s slow rotations for open threes at 29.3% clip, adding steals and assists that boost his floor in high-tempo environments. As the premier SG option, Bane combines recent momentum with matchup edges for maximum return on investment.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($8,600)
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($6,500)

SF - Ronald Holland II ($4,300)

Ronald Holland II slides into the starting role for Detroit against Washington, boosting his minutes to 30.5 with recent averages of 8.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.4 steals over his last five games. Priced at $4,300, he explodes with 6.54x value and a slate-high 33.0% boom rate for 28.1 projected points at SF/PF, capitalizing on injuries to Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart. Washington’s frontcourt leaks rebounds and transition opportunities, perfectly suiting Holland’s athleticism and defensive upside as a 20-year-old forward.

This promotion elevates Holland’s 22.7% optimal lineup rate amid 42.1% ownership, reflecting sharp market recognition of his 0.92 fantasy points per minute potential. He targets Washington’s weak interior for blocks and fast-break finishes, building on his increased 25-minute outings to deliver multi-category contributions. As the top SF/PF choice, Holland unlocks tournament-winning upside in a favorable Detroit system.

More SF Plays:

• Ausar Thompson ($6,500)
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($6,500)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)

Giannis Antetokounmpo powers Milwaukee’s frontcourt on the road at Dallas, sustaining 57.1 DK points across his last three games and 62.5 on the season through 33.8 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 6.2 assists. His $11,700 salary aligns with 5.19x value and 26.0% boom rate over 34.0 minutes, driven by a staggering 63.1% field goal efficiency and 37.41% usage that overwhelms defenses. Dallas concedes high points to power forwards, amplifying Giannis’s paint dominance and transition prowess in this high-stakes environment.

Giannis locks in a 9.5% optimal lineup rate with 13.8% ownership, his 1.79 fantasy points per minute ensuring steady 60.7-point projections regardless of pace. He feasts on Dallas’s spacing issues with 50.0% three-point shooting and elite PER of 38.11, grabbing boards against mismatched bigs. As the elite PF selection, Giannis guarantees superstar production in every category.

More PF Plays:

• Deni Avdija ($8,500)
• Julius Randle ($8,100)

C - Jalen Duren ($7,700)

Jalen Duren anchors Detroit’s interior versus Washington, surging to 52.8 DK points in his last three games with season averages of 19.4 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 65.1% field goal accuracy. At $7,700, he provides 5.82x value and a robust 37.0% boom rate across 31.5 minutes, exceeding his 40.8 season mark in a matchup ripe for double-doubles. Washington’s rebounding defense falters against physical centers, letting Duren control the glass and finish lobs in Detroit’s up-tempo scheme.

Duren’s 20.8% optimal lineup rate shines with 32.0% ownership, his 1.42 fantasy points per minute powering 44.8-point projections through blocks and putbacks. He dominates with 23.31% usage and a 28.33 PER, exploiting Washington’s lack of rim protection for efficient scoring inside. As the standout C pick, Duren blends recent form with positional scarcity for locked-in returns.

More C Plays:

• Jusuf Nurkic ($5,900)
• Mark Williams ($6,600)

Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!