FREE 11/12 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET with CHI at DET and wraps up by 8:30 PM ET, giving you a solid window to build around early action. The highest totals stand out for DFS potential, especially CLE at MIA tipping at 7:30 PM ET with a 238.5 line—expect some volume there from both sides. CHI at DET follows right behind at 235.5, so those games could drive the top scores if the paces hold up.

Overall, the slate mixes a few higher-tempo matchups with some grind-it-out spots, which means prioritizing exposure to those elevated totals while fading the lower ones. It sets up nicely for stacking in the big environments, and with the spread of start times, you can adjust as things unfold.

Game Environment Analysis

CHI @ DET (O/U: 235.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: CHI (8th) vs DET (13th)
• Off Eff: CHI (13th) vs DET (16th)
• Def Eff: CHI (20th) vs DET (4th)

MIL @ CHA (O/U: 228.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: MIL (10th) vs CHA (15th)
• Off Eff: MIL (7th) 🔥 vs CHA (14th)
• Def Eff: MIL (19th) vs CHA (26th) 🎯

ORL @ NYK (O/U: 227.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: ORL (12th) vs NYK (22nd)
• Off Eff: ORL (17th) vs NYK (2nd)
• Def Eff: ORL (11th) vs NYK (12th)

CLE @ MIA (O/U: 238.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: CLE (7th) vs MIA (1st)
• Off Eff: CLE (12th) vs MIA (10th)
• Def Eff: CLE (13th) vs MIA (6th)

MEM @ BOS (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: MEM (4th) vs BOS (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (25th) vs BOS (18th)
• Def Eff: MEM (22nd) vs BOS (8th)

GSW @ SAS (O/U: 232.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: GSW (18th) vs SAS (24th)
• Off Eff: GSW (21st) vs SAS (5th)
• Def Eff: GSW (9th) vs SAS (5th)

POR @ NOP (O/U: 232.5, Spread: 8.5)

• Pace: POR (2nd) vs NOP (27th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: POR (20th) vs NOP (27th)
• Def Eff: POR (14th) vs NOP (28th) 🎯

WAS @ HOU (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -16.5)

• Pace: WAS (3rd) vs HOU (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (28th) vs HOU (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: WAS (29th) 🎯 vs HOU (10th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

PHX @ DAL (O/U: 227.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: PHX (26th) vs DAL (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHX (15th) vs DAL (29th)
• Def Eff: PHX (16th) vs DAL (3rd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Ryan Rollins ($6,100)

Ryan Rollins trends upward with 37.0 DK points across his last three games, surpassing his five-game average of 31.1 and aligning with his season mark of 33.7. He averages 16.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 5.6 assists on efficient 51.1% field goal and 43.6% three-point shooting, boosting his 21.43% usage rate and 18.04 PER in 31.0 minutes per game.

Rollins projects for 32.5 minutes against Charlotte, where his 1.11 fantasy points per minute supports a 36.2-point projection and 5.94x value at $6,100. Milwaukee’s fast-paced style against a Hornets defense vulnerable to point guards elevates his boom potential to 35.0%, making him a core piece despite 20.2% ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($10,900)
• Jalen Suggs ($4,700)

SG - Lonzo Ball ($4,500)

Lonzo Ball delivers outsized value at $4,500, projecting 28.4 DK points for 6.31x return in a salary tier that undervalues his consistent contributions. He maintains steady output at 16.8 points over his last three games, 19.0 across five, and 19.8 in seven, closely tracking his 19.3 season average with 5.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists in 23.3 minutes.

Ball’s 1.09 fantasy points per minute in 26.0 projected minutes exploits Cleveland’s motion offense against Miami, where his 13.86% usage fuels playmaking without heavy scoring demands. This setup yields a 34.0% boom rate and 16.4% optimal lineup inclusion, positioning him as a high-floor anchor amid 22.3% ownership.

More SG Plays:

• Sam Merrill ($4,500)
• Cole Anthony ($4,700)

SF - Kyle Kuzma ($5,200)

Kyle Kuzma faces Charlotte’s perimeter defense in a matchup ripe for his versatile scoring, projecting 32.4 DK points and 6.23x value from $5,200. He sustains consistency at 26.8 points over his last three games, 25.0 in five, and 25.2 across seven, exceeding his 23.2 season average with 13.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists on 55.3% field goal efficiency.

Kuzma’s 20.22% usage and 16.40 PER shine in 33.0 projected minutes, where Milwaukee’s pace amplifies his 36.0% boom rate against a Hornets unit weak inside the arc. This environment drives his 22.6% optimal lineup rate, cementing his role as a top forward option at 18.2% ownership.

More SF Plays:

• De’Andre Hunter ($6,500)
• Kevin Durant ($8,000)

PF - Deni Avdija ($8,700)

Deni Avdija averages 44.1 DK points this season, powering through with 54.8 over his last three games and 48.8 in five, fueled by 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.9 assists on 47.0% field goals and 36.8% from three. His 27.82% usage rate and 20.00 PER in 33.9 minutes highlight all-around dominance that translates directly to fantasy upside.

Avdija commands 35.0 projected minutes against New Orleans, where Portland’s system maximizes his 1.28 fantasy points per minute for a 44.8-point projection at $8,700. Despite a 5.15x value, his 23.0% boom rate and 14.6% optimal inclusion thrive in this high-usage spot, rewarding selectors with 20.5% ownership.

More PF Plays:

• Miles Bridges ($8,600)
• Bobby Portis ($5,500)

C - Jarrett Allen ($6,300)

Jarrett Allen operates in Cleveland’s high-efficiency frontcourt against Miami, projecting 39.8 DK points and 6.32x value at $6,300 through his rim-running prowess. He compiles 15.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.9 assists on 58.6% shooting in 26.2 minutes, with a 22.41 PER underscoring his rebounding and finishing reliability.

Allen’s 20.73% usage elevates in 29.0 projected minutes, where the matchup’s physicality boosts his 43.0% boom rate and 1.37 fantasy points per minute. This dynamic supports his 22.6% optimal lineup frequency, making him indispensable at center with 35.0% ownership driving lineup stability.

More C Plays:

• Jalen Duren ($8,300)
• Alperen Sengun ($9,300)

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