FREE 11/21 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET with IND at CLE and wraps up at 9:30 PM ET, giving us a solid window to build around some key environments. The highest totals stand out with MIA at CHI at 250.5 around 8:00 PM ET and IND at CLE pushing 240.5 right at tip-off—both setups that could drive volume if the paces hold up. A few other matchups look playable too, but these two shape how I’ll approach stacking and exposure.

For DFS, the spread in totals means prioritizing those high-end games while mixing in value from the rest to hit salary caps. Late swaps add flexibility if early results shift things, so it’s worth watching the first tip closely. Overall, it’s a straightforward slate where game script and usage could separate lineups.

Game Environment Analysis

IND @ CLE (O/U: 240.5, Spread: -14.5)

• Pace: IND (9th) vs CLE (8th)
• Off Eff: IND (29th) vs CLE (16th)
• Def Eff: IND (23rd) vs CLE (10th)

BKN @ BOS (O/U: 221.5, Spread: -14.5)

• Pace: BKN (27th) vs BOS (30th)
• Off Eff: BKN (24th) vs BOS (10th) 🔥
• Def Eff: BKN (29th) 🎯 vs BOS (7th)

WAS @ TOR (O/U: 238.5, Spread: -13.5)

• Pace: WAS (6th) vs TOR (12th)
• Off Eff: WAS (28th) vs TOR (7th) 🔥
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs TOR (15th)

MIA @ CHI (O/U: 250.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: MIA (1st) vs CHI (4th)
• Off Eff: MIA (18th) vs CHI (11th)
• Def Eff: MIA (6th) vs CHI (21st)

NOP @ DAL (O/U: 234.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: NOP (26th) vs DAL (3rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NOP (25th) vs DAL (30th)
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs DAL (4th)

MIN @ PHX (O/U: 231.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: MIN (13th) vs PHX (24th)
• Off Eff: MIN (4th) 🔥 vs PHX (8th)
• Def Eff: MIN (11th) vs PHX (14th)

DEN @ HOU (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: DEN (20th) vs HOU (28th)
• Off Eff: DEN (1st) 🔥 vs HOU (2nd)
• Def Eff: DEN (8th) vs HOU (12th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Immanuel Quickley ($6,700)

Immanuel Quickley continues to elevate his game in Toronto’s backcourt, averaging 38.5 DK points over his last seven outings while maintaining a 20% usage rate that fuels his well-rounded production. He dishes out 6.1 assists per game alongside 15.9 points and 4.7 rebounds, shooting efficiently at 46.7% from the field and 38.1% from deep to maximize fantasy output in 31.8 minutes nightly.

Quickley’s matchup against Washington offers prime scoring potential, as the Wizards struggle to contain perimeter creators, allowing opponents to exploit transition and pick-and-roll opportunities. With projected 32.5 minutes and a 1.14 fantasy points per minute pace, he projects for 37.1 DK points at 5.54x value, positioning him as a cornerstone for high-upside builds despite 21.5% ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Derrick White ($7,500)
• Josh Giddey ($9,500)

SG - Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($7,000)

Jaime Jaquez Jr. flirts with triple-doubles in Miami’s fast-paced system, as evidenced by his recent 23-point, nine-rebound, seven-assist explosion against New York and a 22-13-7 line in overtime victory over Cleveland. He averages 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists through eight November games, thriving in 30.8 minutes off the bench with Tyler Herro sidelined.

The road tilt at Chicago sets up Jaquez for continued versatility, facing a Bulls defense vulnerable to multi-category forwards who push the tempo and crash the glass. His 1.18 fantasy points per minute rate supports a 38.9-point projection at 5.56x value over 33 minutes, making him a boom candidate with 29% upside and 27.5% ownership in optimal lineups 21.4% of the time.

More SG Plays:

• Kyshawn George ($6,100)
• Trey Murphy III ($7,200)

SF - Pelle Larsson ($4,100)

Pelle Larsson delivers outsized value at his $4,100 salary, consistently posting 23.2 DK points across his last seven games while converting 51% of field goals and 37.5% from three in limited touches. He contributes 10.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per contest, leveraging a 16.91% usage rate to quietly accumulate stats in Miami’s balanced attack.

Larsson’s role expands to 29 projected minutes against Chicago, where the Bulls concede ample open looks to spot-up shooters and wing defenders. This environment boosts his 24.9-point projection to 6.08x value with a 26% boom rate, ideal for salary dumps that maintain lineup flexibility amid 24.5% ownership and 15.8% optimal inclusion.

More SF Plays:

• RJ Barrett ($6,900)
• Cooper Flagg ($6,900)

PF - Derik Queen ($5,500)

Derik Queen has averaged 34.1 DK points over his last seven appearances for New Orleans, blending 11.7 points and 6.4 rebounds with 2.7 assists on 49.6% shooting efficiency. His 23.32% usage rate drives double-digit scoring nights, complemented by strong PER of 16.75 that underscores his impact in 23.1 minutes as a rookie big.

Queen exploits Dallas’s interior weaknesses on the road, where the Mavericks rank near the bottom in rebounding defense against athletic power forwards. Projected for 30 minutes at 1.07 fantasy points per minute, he targets 32.0 DK points and 5.81x value with 29% boom potential, securing his spot in 21% of optimal builds at 26.2% ownership.

More PF Plays:

• Scottie Barnes ($8,500)
• Evan Mobley ($7,900)

C - Jakob Poeltl ($5,600)

Jakob Poeltl operates in a favorable Toronto matchup against Washington, anchoring the paint with 12.0 points and 7.5 rebounds per game on elite 73.3% field goal accuracy. His 18.58 PER reflects dominant efficiency in 26.1 minutes, where he adds 1.9 assists and protects the rim without relying on outside shooting.

The Wizards’ porous frontcourt defense amplifies Poeltl’s rebounding and finishing chances, especially with 30.5 projected minutes yielding 1.18 fantasy points per minute. He eyes 36.0 DK points at 6.43x value and a slate-leading 42% boom rate for centers, drawing 30.9% ownership while featuring in 24.1% of optimal lineups for reliable floor production.

More C Plays:

• Alperen Sengun ($9,700)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,000)

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