FREE 11/20 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and wraps up by 8:00 PM ET, giving us a compact window to build around. With only four matchups, stacking the right games becomes key for DFS, especially when pace and totals dictate the scoring potential. It’s a setup that rewards focusing on exploitable environments without too much noise from a full board.

The highest totals stand out in SAC at MEM (234.5) and ATL at SAS (233.5), both tipping at 8:00 PM ET, where faster tempos could push usage and opportunities for key players. These games offer solid stacking spots if you’re eyeing correlated upside, while the earlier tip might force some tough one-offs to fill out lineups.

Game Environment Analysis

LAC @ ORL (O/U: 218.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: LAC (29th) vs ORL (18th)
• Off Eff: LAC (20th) vs ORL (18th)
• Def Eff: LAC (23rd) vs ORL (8th)

PHI @ MIL (O/U: 224.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: PHI (22nd) vs MIL (16th)
• Off Eff: PHI (11th) vs MIL (13th)
• Def Eff: PHI (17th) vs MIL (19th)

ATL @ SAS (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: ATL (10th) vs SAS (24th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (17th) vs SAS (6th)
• Def Eff: ATL (7th) vs SAS (3rd)

SAC @ MEM (O/U: 234.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: SAC (5th) vs MEM (7th)
• Off Eff: SAC (26th) vs MEM (28th)
• Def Eff: SAC (27th) 🎯 vs MEM (20th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - James Harden ($10,000)

James Harden trends upward with 65.3 DK points across his last three games, surpassing his season average of 51.0 while maintaining elite usage at 30.39 percent. He logs 37 projected minutes tonight, fueling his 26.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game on 43.6 percent field goal shooting and 37.6 percent from three. This pace positions him for another massive outing as the Clippers’ primary creator.

Harden’s matchup against Orlando offers exploitable opportunities, with the Magic ranking in the bottom half against point guards in points allowed. His 1.35 fantasy points per minute and 49.8 projection deliver 4.98 times value at $10,000, making him the clear top pick despite 27.0 percent ownership. He thrives in high-usage roles, consistently hitting 21.0 percent boom rate to anchor lineups.

More PG Plays:

• Tyrese Maxey ($10,300)
• Russell Westbrook ($7,900)

SG - Desmond Bane ($7,500)

Desmond Bane faces the Clippers in a matchup ripe for his scoring prowess, as Los Angeles concedes the fourth-most points to shooting guards over the last month. He sustains consistent production at 38.8 DK points over his last three games and 38.6 across five, aligning with his 1.06 fantasy points per minute in 36 projected minutes. Bane’s 43.6 percent field goal efficiency and 31.5 percent from deep support his 16.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game.

This environment boosts his 38.3 projection to 5.11 times value at $7,500, with a 19.0 percent boom rate and 22.1 percent optimal lineup rate cementing him as the top shooting guard choice. Even at 20.4 percent ownership, Bane’s steady 23.04 percent usage ensures reliable output without the volatility of flashier options.

More SG Plays:

• VJ Edgecombe ($6,000)
• Quentin Grimes ($6,100)

SF - Vince Williams Jr. ($5,300)

Vince Williams Jr. delivers exceptional value at $5,300 following his strong start against San Antonio, where he posted 14 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds in 30 minutes. With Ja Morant sidelined for at least two weeks, Williams secures a starting role that elevates his minutes to 30.5 projected, enhancing his multi-category contributions as seen in his recent 24.0 DK point performance versus Oklahoma City. His versatility shines in expanded opportunities, flirting with triple-doubles while providing steals and efficient shooting.

The Kings’ defense struggles against small forwards and power forwards, allowing Williams to exploit mismatches in this Memphis home game. His 6.12 times value on a 32.4 projection, paired with a league-leading 34.0 percent boom rate and 38.1 percent optimal rate, makes him the top pick at his hybrid position despite 39.0 percent ownership. He consistently outperforms his salary, turning limited prior minutes into lineup gold.

More SF Plays:

• Keldon Johnson ($5,400)
• Franz Wagner ($8,800)

PF - Santi Aldama ($5,800)

Santi Aldama averages 30.4 DK points over his last three games, holding steady from 31.6 in five and building on his season mark of 28.2 with efficient 45.9 percent field goal shooting. In 30 projected minutes against Sacramento, he contributes 12.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, leveraging his 20.76 percent usage and 1.22 fantasy points per minute. Aldama’s 30.3 percent three-point shooting adds spacing, amplifying his impact as a frontcourt staple.

Memphis benefits from the Kings’ porous interior defense, which ranks poorly against power forwards and centers in rebounds allowed. At $5,800, Aldama’s 36.7 projection yields 6.33 times value, with a 41.0 percent boom rate and top-ranked 46.8 percent optimal lineup rate positioning him as the premier big man option. His consistency at 43.2 percent ownership locks in dependable production for balanced builds.

More PF Plays:

• Jalen Johnson ($9,800)
• Keldon Johnson ($5,400)

C - Andre Drummond ($6,400)

Andre Drummond operates in a rebound-heavy role for Philadelphia against Milwaukee, where the Bucks yield the third-most boards to centers this season. He maintains consistent form at 34.3 DK points in his last three games and 35.6 over five, exceeding his 25.8 season average through 59.2 percent field goal efficiency and 9.8 rebounds per contest. With 33 projected minutes, Drummond’s 0.99 fantasy points per minute and low 13.10 percent usage focus his output on double-double potential without turnovers.

This road matchup favors his physical style, as Milwaukee’s frontcourt rotations create second-chance opportunities for his 8.6 points and occasional threes at 41.2 percent. Drummond’s 32.6 projection at $6,400 provides 5.09 times value, with a 23.0 percent boom rate and 21.7 percent optimal rate making him the top center amid 14.3 percent ownership. He anchors lineups with rebounding reliability in a high-pace environment.

More C Plays:

• Zach Edey ($5,900)
• Myles Turner ($6,700)

Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!