FREE 12/03 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET with Portland at Cleveland and wraps up at 8:30 PM ET in Miami at Dallas. That spread of start times gives you some solid late-swap options, which can help dial in your lineups as the night progresses. Overall, the slate mixes moderate paces with a few spots where teams push the tempo, so keep an eye on those for stacking opportunities.

The highest totals stand out: Portland at Cleveland sits at 240.5, and Miami at Dallas is right behind at 238.5. Those game environments should drive usage and points, making them prime for DFS builds if the key players deliver. The rest of the board has lower implied totals, but you can find value by targeting mismatches in the mid-tier games.

Game Environment Analysis

POR @ CLE (O/U: 240.5, Spread: -11.5)

• Pace: POR (3rd) vs CLE (9th)
• Off Eff: POR (23rd) vs CLE (11th)
• Def Eff: POR (22nd) vs CLE (11th)

DEN @ IND (O/U: 237.5, Spread: 7.5)

• Pace: DEN (25th) vs IND (11th)
• Off Eff: DEN (1st) 🔥 vs IND (30th)
• Def Eff: DEN (18th) vs IND (20th)

SAS @ ORL (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: SAS (21st) vs ORL (12th)
• Off Eff: SAS (5th) vs ORL (9th)
• Def Eff: SAS (9th) vs ORL (5th)

CHA @ NYK (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: CHA (22nd) vs NYK (26th)
• Off Eff: CHA (22nd) vs NYK (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHA (24th) vs NYK (14th)

LAC @ ATL (O/U: 226.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: LAC (27th) vs ATL (8th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAC (21st) vs ATL (16th)
• Def Eff: LAC (26th) 🎯 vs ATL (8th)

SAC @ HOU (O/U: 230.5, Spread: -15.5)

• Pace: SAC (7th) vs HOU (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAC (27th) vs HOU (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAC (25th) 🎯 vs HOU (6th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

BKN @ CHI (O/U: 232.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: BKN (28th) vs CHI (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BKN (26th) vs CHI (18th)
• Def Eff: BKN (28th) 🎯 vs CHI (23rd)

DET @ MIL (O/U: 228.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: DET (10th) vs MIL (20th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DET (13th) vs MIL (15th)
• Def Eff: DET (3rd) vs MIL (21st)

MIA @ DAL (O/U: 238.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: MIA (1st) vs DAL (5th)
• Off Eff: MIA (10th) vs DAL (29th)
• Def Eff: MIA (2nd) vs DAL (4th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jalen Brunson ($8,800)

Jalen Brunson averages 42.6 DK points over his last seven games, showcasing his reliability as the Knicks’ primary scoring option with 27.7 points, 6.5 assists, and efficient shooting at 46.7% from the field. His 31.62% usage rate and 20.96 PER highlight his central role, especially in a matchup against Charlotte where he projects for 44.8 points and a 5.1x value at $8,800 salary.

This game environment favors Brunson’s playmaking, as the Hornets struggle to contain ball-handlers, allowing him to exploit transition opportunities and pick-and-roll sets with 35 projected minutes. His 23% boom rate and 10.4% optimal lineup inclusion rate make him a cornerstone for DFS builds, delivering consistent upside without the volatility of lower-owned options.

More PG Plays:

• James Harden ($9,600)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,600)

SG - Ayo Dosunmu ($5,800)

Ayo Dosunmu faces a Brooklyn defense that ranks in the bottom half against shooting guards and small forwards, positioning him perfectly to build on his season averages of 15.8 points on 53.9% field goal shooting and 49.3% from three. With 33 projected minutes and a 20.01% usage rate, he thrives in Chicago’s fast-paced system, projecting 30.5 DK points for exceptional 5.3x value at just $5,800.

Dosunmu’s recent consistency shines through with 25.4 DK points across his last seven outings, including strong rebounding and assist contributions that pad his stat line in favorable environments like this Nets matchup. His 19% boom rate and 13.3% optimal rate underscore his efficiency, making him an ideal mid-range target who outperforms his salary every time he steps on the floor.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($9,500)
• Tyler Herro ($7,700)

SF - Toumani Camara ($5,300)

Toumani Camara delivers outsized value at $5,300, consistently surpassing expectations with 29.9 DK points in his last seven games and season averages of 12.7 points plus 5.4 rebounds on 41.3% shooting. Portland leans on his versatility in a road game against Cleveland, where his 35 projected minutes and 16.32% usage unlock multi-category production projecting to 29.6 points and 5.6x value.

Camara’s recent surge to 31.1 DK points over the last three games reflects his growing role, particularly against a Cavs frontcourt that leaves openings for wing defenders like him to grab boards and contribute assists. With a 21% boom rate and 12.6% optimal inclusion, he provides a fresh, high-upside option that fits seamlessly into balanced lineups.

More SF Plays:

• Kevin Durant ($8,300)
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,600)

PF - Anthony Davis ($8,800)

Anthony Davis operates in a high-volume role for Dallas against Miami, where his 26.93% usage and 25.53 PER drive season averages of 21.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists on 53.7% shooting. Projecting 48.5 DK points with a 33% boom rate, he maximizes his 31 projected minutes in an environment ripe for big men to dominate the glass and interior.

This matchup amplifies Davis’s strengths, as the Heat concede second-chance opportunities that align with his elite rebounding, pushing him toward 5.5x value at $8,800 despite any short-term fluctuations. His 17% optimal lineup rate and consistent floor make him indispensable, rewarding lineups with explosive potential from the power forward spot.

More PF Plays:

• Jalen Johnson ($10,100)
• Deni Avdija ($9,400)

C - Nic Claxton ($6,400)

Nic Claxton continues to anchor Brooklyn’s frontcourt with steady production, averaging 30.3 DK points over his last seven games and season marks of 13.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on 54.9% field goal efficiency. At @ Chicago, his 31.5 projected minutes and 18.53% usage project 36.4 points for 5.7x value at $6,400, capitalizing on his rim protection and transition play.

Claxton’s consistency extends to a 27% boom rate, fueled by the Bulls’ pace that generates rebounding chances and assist opportunities in pick-and-rolls. His 12.9% optimal rate highlights his reliability as a center, delivering well-rounded stats that elevate any DFS roster without overexposure risks.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($13,400)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300)

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