FREE 12/02 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game slate starts at 7 PM ET and runs through an 8 PM tip-off, giving us a tight window with limited late-swap options. That means nailing your core builds early, especially in a mix of paces where some games could drag while others push the tempo. Overall, it’s a straightforward night for DFS, but the implied totals point to a couple spots worth stacking.

The top totals come in MIN at NOP (236.5) and WAS at PHI (235.5), both tipping around that 7-8 PM block. These matchups look primed for higher usage and scoring chances, so they could be key for differentiating your builds without overcomplicating things. Focus on value from those environments to round out the rest of the slate.

Game Environment Analysis

WAS @ PHI (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -13.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs PHI (14th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (27th) vs PHI (17th)
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs PHI (16th)

POR @ TOR (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: POR (3rd) vs TOR (16th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: POR (23rd) vs TOR (13th)
• Def Eff: POR (23rd) vs TOR (5th)

MEM @ SAS (O/U: 232.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: MEM (13th) vs SAS (21st)
• Off Eff: MEM (24th) vs SAS (5th) 🔥
• Def Eff: MEM (17th) vs SAS (11th)

MIN @ NOP (O/U: 236.5, Spread: 12.5)

• Pace: MIN (15th) vs NOP (26th)
• Off Eff: MIN (8th) 🔥 vs NOP (25th)
• Def Eff: MIN (10th) vs NOP (29th) 🎯

NYK @ BOS (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: NYK (22nd) vs BOS (30th)
• Off Eff: NYK (3rd) 🔥 vs BOS (7th)
• Def Eff: NYK (13th) vs BOS (15th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Tyrese Maxey ($9,900)

Tyrese Maxey faces the Wizards defense that struggles to contain quick guards, allowing opponents to exploit transition opportunities and perimeter shooting. Maxey averages 32.3 points, 7.6 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game this season on 46.8% field goal shooting and 38.4% from three, with a 30.17% usage rate that positions him as the primary scoring threat for Philadelphia.

His projected 39 minutes and 1.43 fantasy points per minute deliver a 55.7-point projection at 5.63x value, outpacing his recent three-game dip to align with his season-long 54.9 average. High ownership reflects his optimal 35.5% lineup rate and 39.0% boom potential, making him the clear top PG play in a matchup ripe for his explosive style.

More PG Plays:

• Immanuel Quickley ($7,100)
• CJ McCollum ($6,600)

SG - Anthony Edwards ($9,400)

Anthony Edwards has averaged 28.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists this season, shooting an efficient 49.1% from the field and 40.9% from beyond the arc in 33.3 minutes per game. A 32.59% usage rate and 24.21 PER underscore his role as Minnesota’s go-to scorer, especially on the road where he thrives in up-tempo sets.

Edwards projects for 47.5 DK points at 5.05x value across 37.5 minutes, with his 21.0% boom rate fitting seamlessly into lineups despite recent form settling around his 44.7 season average. The Pelicans matchup favors his athleticism against a backcourt that concedes high points to shooting guards, boosting his optimal 19.7% inclusion rate as the top SG option.

More SG Plays:

• Brandon Ingram ($8,100)
• Quentin Grimes ($6,600)

SF - Jaylen Brown ($9,300)

Jaylen Brown continues to elevate his production, posting 62.3 DK points over his last three games while averaging 28.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on 49.0% field goal shooting. His 36.43% usage rate and 22.53 PER highlight Boston’s reliance on him in key moments, particularly against defenses like New York’s that leave wings open for drives and spot-up threes.

At 35.0 projected minutes and 1.35 fantasy points per minute, Brown targets 47.1 DK points for 5.07x value, with a 21.0% boom rate that exceeds his season norms. Trending upward from his 45.9 average, he anchors lineups at an 18.5% optimal rate, solidifying his status as the premier SF with versatile scoring that complements Boston’s high-powered offense.

More SF Plays:

• Devin Vassell ($6,300)
• Jaden McDaniels ($5,600)

PF - Julius Randle ($8,200)

Julius Randle operates in the high-scoring environment of the Timberwolves-Pelicans matchup, where New Orleans ranks among the league’s weakest against power forwards in rebounds and assists allowed. He maintains consistent output at 23.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game, converting 50.2% of field goals and 35.6% of threes in 33.6 minutes.

Randle’s 1.25 fantasy points per minute yield a 42.6-point projection at 5.19x value over 34.0 minutes, aligning with his steady 44.4 season average and 22.0% boom potential. A 26.96% usage rate and 22.23 PER ensure reliable contributions across categories, positioning him as the top PF with an 18.4% optimal lineup rate that maximizes slate flexibility.

More PF Plays:

• Scottie Barnes ($8,900)
• Deni Avdija ($9,500)

C - Marvin Bagley III ($3,600)

Marvin Bagley III joins the starting lineup with Alex Sarr sidelined by injury, delivering 22 points, eight rebounds, and efficient 11-of-16 shooting in his most recent start. Averaging 17.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists over two starts this season in 30.0 minutes, he exploits opportunities against Philadelphia’s frontcourt that concedes boards to mobile centers.

At a bargain $3,600 salary, Bagley projects for 28.1 DK points and 7.81x value in 27.0 minutes, boasting a 50.0% boom rate that far outstrips his low price tag. His 1.04 fantasy points per minute and 35.5% optimal rate make him an elite value anchor at center, especially with recent performances like 47.5 DK points showing his ceiling in expanded roles.

More C Plays:

• Tristan Vukcevic ($3,200)
• Jakob Poeltl ($5,900)

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